Tuesday, August 27, 2013

College Football Preview: SEC Quickviews

Auburn: 
3-9 in 2012 (0-8 in the SEC)

Only two seasons removed from winning the national title, the Tigers laid a goose egg in SEC play in 2012 and it cost Gene Chizik his job.  Auburn hired former Chizik coordinator Gus Malzahn to be their new head coach.  It will probably take a year for Malzahn to really get going at Auburn, but they could pull an upset somewhere along the way.  Apparently former Georgia DB Nick Marshall is going to get a look at quarterback in Auburn’s new, old offensive system in an attempt to recreate Cam Newton.  No word yet about how much Cecil Newton is planning on charging. Auburn will be better in 2013 than 2012, but that isn’t saying much.  They will be right on the brink of going to a bowl game, but they better have that locked up before November 16th, when they finish against Georgia and Alabama. 

Arkansas:
4-8 in 2012 (2-6 in the SEC)

You have to feel a little bad for Arkansas.  Two years ago they were 11-2, yes the third best team in their division, but perhaps the third best team in the nation.  Then Bobby Patrino went for a motorcycle ride, John L. Smith brought his debt and his suggestion that everyone smile to Fayetteville, now you have a lifetime Big 10 coach that wants to play hard-nosed football against the best teams in the country.  I wished I could say that better days are ahead for Hog fans, but there doesn't seem to be any reason to think that Bret Bielema is the answer.  He even brought the Big 10 form of scheduling with him.  Arkansas opens up with 4 non-conference games and then plays 8 straight SEC games with two bye weeks sprinkled in.  If they win one game in conference it will be a miracle. 

Kentucky:
2-10 in 2012 (0-8 in the SEC)

After a terrible season, Kentucky fired Joker Phillips and brought in Mark Stoops to try and build something in Lexington.  Stoops big brother, Bob, thinks that the SEC is just a hype machine and that the level of competition isn't really that much better than any other conference.  My guess is that this Christmas, Mark will be able, in great detail, to explain to his brother what being in the SEC is all about.  I think Kentucky will double their win total in 2013 from a year ago, but they won’t win more than one game in conference.  Better days are ahead though, as Stoops has begun recruiting the state of Ohio rather than fight and claw for the best players in the South.  I think they will be a bowl team in a year or two, which is big in Kentucky. 

Ole Miss:
7-6 in 2012 (3-5 in the SEC)

I really wanted to put Ole Miss in the category of teams that deserved a full preview, but they just aren't there yet. Bo Wallace returns at quarterback, and the Rebels had a fantastic recruiting class this past February. But on the field they are still a step or two below the top level of the SEC West. In a five game stretch this season, Ole Miss plays at #15 Texas, at #1 Alabama, v. #7 Texas A&M, and v. #12 LSU. Oh, and the other game in there is a road trip to Auburn, not exactly an easy game. Without an opening night win against Vanderbilt, it might be tough for the Rebels to do better than 7-5 in 2013, and that is assuming they can upset one of the four teams I mentioned above. Hugh Freeze has the Rebels going in the right direction, but he may need a little patience with this team and that schedule.

Mississippi State:
8-5 in 2012 (4-4 in the SEC)

The narrative of the 2012 State season is one that seems a lot worse than it is.  Yes they were 7-0 and ranked highly when they played Alabama last year and got destroyed, 38-7.  And yes, they went on to lose 4 of their next five after that game, but those games were against A&M, LSU, Ole Miss, and Northwestern in the bowl game.  No matter what order the wins and the losses came in, State beat the teams they were supposed to beat and lost to the teams they were supposed to lose to.  The biggest concern in Starkville should be that a few years ago they looked like a team that could get into the top of their division and compete with LSU and Alabama.  Now, they look like the second best team in their state.  For Dan Mullen, it will be losing to Ole Miss, not LSU or Alabama that will cost him his job if he can’t manage to turn the tide in his home state.  State won’t go bowling this year and Mullen will be lucky to survive.

Missouri
5-7 in 2012 (2-6 in the SEC)

Missouri thought they were going to have the season that A&M had in 2012, unfortunately for them, they only proved what many fans thought before their first season in the SEC: they don’t belong.  It wasn’t just that they lost 6 of their 8 conference games, it was how they lost those games.  Missouri had Georgia in a close game at home and then the wheels fell off in the fourth quarter, they lost by 3 touchdowns.  They lost by 3 touchdowns to South Carolina.  They lost by 31 to Alabama in a game that will be remembered because Nick Saban made one of his defensive players apologize for throwing, yes throwing, a Missouri player.  They lost by 30 to A&M to end the season.  If there was a signature moment it was a win in Knoxville in overtime, but really that isn’t as big as it sounds.  The forecast in Missouri is misery.  They will be hard pressed to match their win total in conference from last season.  No bowl for the Tigers, and they will probably give Gary Pinkle one more season before they start to get tired of being the new Kentucky of the SEC.

Tennessee
5-7 in 2012 (1-7 in the SEC)

15 years ago you wouldn't have believed that Tennessee football could have turned into the dumpster fire that it is now.  The school that brought you Peyton Manning, Tee Martin and a national title, big fat Phil Fulmer with his arm pit stains, and Rocky Top so many times your ears started bleeding have fallen on the hardest times you could ever think of.  I’m not sure Derek Dooley got a fair shake at Tennessee, but the truth is he didn't seem to be moving things forward, so he is out and in comes Butch Jones.  Tennessee’s talent level isn't at SEC standards, but he will have a chance to get off to a good start if they can upset Florida in the swamp.  Their schedule is a beast: at Oregon, at Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and at Alabama.  If they win any of those five games, then Jones will have something real to build off of this season, but I don’t think it will happen.  Their two shots at wins in conference both come on the road, at Missouri and at Kentucky, but things will be getting better in Knoxville for the first time in a long time.

Vanderbilt
9-4 in 2012 (5-3 in the SEC)


James Franklin has done an amazing job at Vanderbilt, but now he has the unenviable task of trying to take 
that last caveat out of the statement: at Vanderbilt.  2012 was a great season at Vanderbilt, but an average season for a true contender in the SEC.  Vanderbilt lost to the three teams that finished ahead of them in the SEC East.  They played South Carolina tough in the first game of the season, but they were embarrassed by Georgia in Athens 48-3 and gave up 31 points to a Florida offense that struggled all season.  There is nothing wrong with losing to those teams, but if Franklin wants to go to the next level, he will have to beat one of the big boys.  Vanderbilt has a new quarterback to break in and they go on the road to South Carolina, Florida, and A&M.  They open against Ole Miss in a game that I think will shape the season of both teams.  James Franklin has done an amazing job, but I think he has taken Vanderbilt as far as they can go, time for Franklin to try and find a job at a school where he can compete for titles.  

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