LSU
10-3 in 2012 (6-2 in the SEC) lost to
Clemson in the Chick-fil-A Bowl
2012 Recap:
It looked like another year that would come down to the
Alabama game for LSU. The Tigers were
5-0 heading to The Swamp to take on a Florida team that had looked less than
impressive early in the season. LSU fell to the “mighty” Gators only to rebound
a week later and beat a South Carolina team that had destroyed Georgia the week
before. They followed that win up by beating A&M in College Station, before
losing to Alabama at home after leading late in the fourth quarter.
Got all that?
Oh yeah, then they lost to Clemson on a last second field
goal in the Chick-fil-A Bowl.
After the season, it got worse for the Tigers. 10 Juniors
left school early to enter the NFL draft, and if you include former Heisman
finalist Tyron Mathieu, it would have been 11.
The Schedule:
Not sure what Les Miles did to the people that make the SEC
schedules, but it must have been something pretty bad. The Tigers draw Georgia
from the East this year, and they have to go to Athens one week after playing
Auburn. LSU has their yearly match up with Florida at home sandwiched between
games on the road against both Mississippi schools. The only break I can see in
the schedule is that they get a bye week before both Alabama and A&M, but
those games are back to back on the schedule, so LSU only plays two games
between October 27th and November 28th.
Oh yeah, and LSU opens with TCU in the “Jerry Dome” in
Dallas on August 31st. Make that 5 games out of 12 played against
teams ranked in the preseason top 20.
To recap, there are five SEC schools ranked in the Top 10 of
the preseason poll, and LSU plays four of them. They also go on the road to
play the two teams that battled for the SEC title in 2012.
Do you think people are punishing the Tigers for misspelling
Geaux all of these years? At least that would
make sense.
Key Returner:
You would think that an elite SEC school returning their
starting quarterback would make it easy to pick a key returner, but when that
quarterback is Zach Mettenberger, life isn't that simple. I’ll go with running
back Jeremy Hill as the key returner for the Tigers, because Les Miles said as
much when he allowed the team to vote on Hill’s status with the team after an
off-field altercation this summer. The team (big surprise) voted to allow Hill
to return to the field this fall, and I’m sure it had nothing to do with the 12
touchdowns Hill scored last year. Since Hill is going to be on the field, you
can expect him to get a heavy workload this year. For the Tigers to be
successful, Hill and LSU’s other running backs will have to take pressure off
Mettenberger, who is a good quarterback, but not capable of winning games by
himself. A solid running game will open up play action passing opportunities
for Mettenberger, who has a big arm and throws the deep ball as well as anyone
in the conference.
Key Loss:
Outside Linebacker Barkevious Mingo. Besides having one of
the best names in football, Mingo is also a heck of a player. He was one of the
10 juniors to leave LSU early following the 2012 season, and apparently he made
the right choice because the Cleveland Browns took Mingo with the 6th
overall pick in April’s draft. Mingo was a pure pass rusher who was just
starting to live up to his potential. Losing a player like him early leaves a
huge void on the LSU defense. LSU has had as much talent on defense over the
past five years as anyone in the country, but at some point, you would think
that the talent level is going to fall off at least a little bit. LSU’s defense
is going to be counted on heavily this year as they are the only team in the
league that will have the not so enviable task of facing Aaron Murray, Johnny
Manziel, and AJ McCarron. Those three men will be very happy they don’t have to
account for Mr. Mingo.
Success Will Be:
Tiger fans expect to win championships, but with this
schedule, I just don’t think that is realistic.
10-2 would mean that you split the four conference games against top
teams, beat TCU, and didn’t lose to any of the mid-level SEC schools. I think
that would be pretty successful, but then again, I’ve never used the word Geaux
until today, so how rational could I really be?
2013 Prediction:
LSU has won at least ten games each season since 2009, and
has only lost four games over the past two seasons. I believe that LSU will
lose 3 games this season alone. I just don’t see how they can compete with the
top of the SEC this year, and they don’t catch any breaks with their schedule.
I wouldn't be surprised to see LSU knock off one of the top teams in the
league, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see the Tigers lose to one of the
Mississippi schools. LSU will be very good in a great conference which means
9-3 isn't really that bad, but it will be a step back for one of the premiere
programs in the nation.
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