It is amazing how much is still to be decided in the last
day of the NFL season. While there are teams that have clinched their playoff
spot, seeding and home field advantage will be determined on the field today.
In the AFC, most of the playoff positions have been decided,
but there is a four team race for the final
playoff spot.
Denver will be the one seed and have home-field advantage. I
think New England will beat Buffalo to clinch the 2 seed. Cincinnati will be
the three seed, and Indianapolis will be the four seed. Kansas City has already
clinched the 5th seed, so it is important for both the Bengals and
the Colts to try and get the three seed to avoid having to play the Chiefs in
the first round.
The six seed is where it gets fun in the AFC. If the Ravens
win they are in, but the Ravens are on the road in Cincinnati, where the
Bengals haven’t lost all season. The Bengals also have seeding to play for, and
a shot at a first round bye with a win, so I think they will win, eliminating Baltimore.
The Dolphins should win today. They are playing at home
against the Jets and hot-seat staple Rex Ryan. However, the Dolphins looked
terrible on the road last week against a bad Bills team, and I think the Jets
will rally around Ryan and figure out a way to win this game for him. So the
Dolphins are out.
Pittsburgh is at home and playing the Browns, but they need
everyone else to lose. In my scenario, they are
close to getting their wish.
The Steelers will control this game from start to finish and put themselves in
position to make the playoffs after starting the season 0-4.
However, the one thing the Steelers will need is for the
Chargers to lose to the Chiefs at home. The Chargers/Chiefs game will be a 4 pm
kick while the other three games that will decide the six seed all kick at 1
pm. So the Chargers will know when they take the field that they are in with a
win. Even though Kansas City is a good team, they don’t have anything to play
for today, and the Chargers will be extra motivated. I think the Chargers will
win a close game, and break the hearts of the Steelers, who will be a tough
team to beat if they get into the playoffs.
So here it is in the AFC:
Denver
New England
Cincinnati
Indianapolis
Kansas City
San Diego
So the wild card round will feature San Diego on the road at
Cincinnati and Kansas City on the road at Indianapolis.
Confused yet?
I hope not, because the NFC is much more difficult to
understand. Nothing, not the 1 seed, not a single division, and not a first
round bye has been clinched in the NFC.
Let’s take it one step at a time. Seattle clinches home
field and the one seed by beating the Rams today. Seattle at home against a dome
team should equal a Seahawks win, so I’ll go with Seattle.
The Panthers control their own destiny for the two seed and
a first round bye. All they have to do is go down to Atlanta and beat the
disappointing Falcons. Atlanta has nothing to play for, except screwing up
securing a top pick in the NFL Draft, so that means the Falcons will probably
play well and scare me half to death. I think Carolina will pull out the win
and win the division.
The Eagles will destroy the Cowboys on Sunday night football,
and it has nothing to do with Tony Romo not playing. The Cowboys have a
terrible defense, and there is no way they will keep Philadelphia under 30
points. With or without Romo, the Cowboys aren’t going to score that much, but
at least now, Romo won’t get blamed for the Cowboys losing.
Green Bay and Chicago will play for the NFC North title and
the fourth seed in the playoffs. Chicago gave up over 50 points to the Eagles
last week in a game that could have put them in the playoffs. Cutler and the
offense will play well, and probably score on the Green Bay defense that will
be missing Clay Mathews. However, the Chicago defense is wretched. Aaron
Rodgers returning to the Packers lineup will be the focus in the lead up to the
game, but the key to this game will be Eddy Lacy. The rookie running back has
brought balance to the Packers’ offense, and the Bears couldn’t stop the run if
I was carrying the ball. Lacy will have a big day, Rodgers will throw off play
action, and the Packers will make the playoffs.
The 49ers host the Cardinals today in a game of two teams
that have a ton to play for. The 49ers are in the playoffs, but they could be
as high as the 1 seed if they win and things fall their way. The Cardinals have
to win and hope that the Saints lose to the Bucs in order to get in the
playoffs. Because this game will be going on at the same time the Saints and
the Bucs play, I’ll go with Arizona to win the game but miss the playoffs
because I can’t see New Orleans losing to a bad Tampa Bay team in the Super
Dome. This scenario will be a tough break for Arizona who will go 11-5, but
miss the playoffs.
So here is my prediction on the NFC playoffs:
Seattle
Carolina
Philadelphia
Green Bay
New Orleans
San Francisco
As bland as the AFC playoffs look on paper, the NFC playoffs
look absolutely amazing. New Orleans travels to the frozen tundra to take on
Green Bay. The Saints are the better team, but can they win in the frigid
climate? Meanwhile, the 49ers travel to Philly to take on the Eagles. The great
49ers defense versus the dynamic offense of the Eagles.
The backside of all this playoff talk is that tomorrow will
be Black Monday in the NFL. Seven coaches lost their jobs last season, so how
many will get the ax tomorrow?
No coach deserves to be fired more than Jim Schwartz in
Detroit. They have talent on both sides of the ball and he hasn’t done anything
with it. I think Lovie Smith would be a perfect fit for the Lions after they
fire Schwartz because he knows the division and you want a proven winner with
that amount of talent.
I think the Greg Schiano experiment will be over in Tampa.
So that makes two.
Houston already fired their coach.
Atlanta, Buffalo, Oakland, Jacksonville, and Cleveland all
had bad years, but I don’t think any of those coaches will be fired. All of
those teams other than Atlanta just hired new coaches last season, so they will
probably get 1 more year to get the ball rolling in the right direction. Mike
Smith has been the most successful coach in franchise history, so there is no
reason for the Falcons to overreact to one bad season.
I think Leslie Frazier will be out in Minnesota. Although
they made the playoffs last year, it just seems like the Vikings are going nowhere
fast, and wasting the best running back in the league.
The two biggest questions will surround Washington and New York.
The Redskins have been a mess going all the way back to the
post game press conference after last year’s lost to Seattle in the Wild Card
playoff game. Robert Griffin isn’t going anywhere but it doesn’t seem like Mike
Shanahan wants him to be his quarterback. Dan Snyder will have to pay Shanahan
a boat load of money to go away if he wants a new coach. I honestly don’t know
what will happen here, but my guess is that Shanahan will be gone.
The rise and fall of Rex Ryan in New York has been fascinating.
In the media capital of the world, Ryan was loved for his brash talk and
straight forward approach when the Jets were winning playoff games. Just a few
years later, the Jets are losing more than they are winning, they don’t have a
quarterback, and now Ryan’s antics are being criticized. The Jets were supposed
to be terrible this year, but a win today would get them to .500 and I think it
would earn Rex another year.
I think I'll settle on 5 coaches being fired tomorrow, but there is usually a surprise along the way, so you just never know.
It is amazing to me how often the NFL gets it right. To be
able to sit back today, watch NFL RedZone, and watch all of this drama play out
is a sports fan’s dream. No matter what happens, with 15 games going on between
1 pm and 8 pm there is almost no way that today won’t be one of the best sports
days of the year. Enjoy the final full week of football, because it’s going to
be a long time until next September.
