Thursday, September 24, 2009

Week 4

Week four will offer some answers for college football fans. There are teams that still haven't really been tested, and there are other teams that will be on the brink of breaking through with a win this week. As the college football season continues, the concept of survive and advance reigns supreme.

Here is a look at some of the games that will get some attention this weekend.

North Carolina v. Georgia Tech 12pm (CW)
After a very disappointing loss to Miami 10 days ago in South Florida, Georgia Tech returns home and tries to right the ship. Odds are that no one is going to go undefeated in the ACC, so the loss to Miami shouldn't completely spoil Tech's season. However, a loss on Saturday to North Carolina would probably put a nail in the coffin of the Jackets ACC title hopes. I believe the Tech fateful will leave Bobby Dodd Stadium very disappointed Saturday. North Carolina's defense has been spectacular so far this year. Georgia Tech's offense has not been consistent, and the passing game for Tech has been worse than terrible. A one dimensional offense against a very strong defense will spell big trouble for Tech. Tech's defense will keep the Jackets in the game, but in the end, nothing Tech has done this year could give you confidence that this is even close to the same team that played so well last season. The only chance Tech has will be a break out game from 2008 ACC player of the year Jonathan Dwyer. Don't bet on it.
Prediction: North Carolina 16 Georgia Tech 12

Arkansas v. #3 Alabama 3:30 pm CBS
After last weeks loss to Georgia, it will be very interesting to see how Arkansas starts out against a very good Alabama team. Obviously Ryan Mallet can play quarterback in the SEC. The question will be, can Arkansas repeat their performance against Alabama. Bama hasn't really been tested since the opening night win over Virginia Tech. I think this game will be closer than many people think, and don't be surprised if Arkansas is leading sometime in the 2nd quarter. But just like last week against Georgia, Arkansas just doesn't have the depth in talent yet to play 4 quarters with the elite teams in the SEC.
Prediction: Arkansas 20 Alabama 31

#9 Miami v. #11 Virginia Tech 3:30 pm ABC
This is the biggest game for Miami since the National Championship game against Ohio State a few years back. The Canes have been off of the national stage for the past 4 years, but this year, the Canes have won their first two games, and are in position to open up a big league in their division in the ACC. After beating Georgia Tech, a win over Virginia Tech would mean a defacto 2 game lead in the division. Virginia Tech might be the most tested team in the country so far this year. A loss to Alabama in the Georgia Dome was a wake up call for Tech. Last week's last minute win against Nebraska had to give the Hokies a ton of confidence. I think this will be the best game of the day, and maybe the best game of the season so far. I expect it to come down to the fourth quarter, with a field goal being the difference.
Prediction: Miami 20 Virginia Tech 23

Arizona State v. #21 Georgia 7:00 pm ESPN U
First thing is first. Why in the world is this game being broadcast on ESPN U? They couldn't find a channel that some people actually get?

Now on to the game itself. Arizona State is not a very good team. They have played two games so far this year, and beat no bodies in both of those games. Georgia is tried and tested and playing at home. After the losing to Oklahoma State, Georgia has won 2 big games to get their season on the right track. I truly believe this game could set up the rest of the season for Georgia.

Georgia will win this game. The issue at hand is how Georgia wins the game. Georgia needs to come out and bust this Pac-10 softie in the mouth. Be physical on offense by running the ball with King and Samuel. Wear down a defense that hasn't seen anything close to the athletes Georgia will put on the field Saturday. Be physical on defense by shutting down the run again, and making ASU one dimensional, then get after the quarterback early and often.

Play a strong, complete game and get your starters off the field by the end of the third quarter. Everything Georgia wants is still with in their grasp. LSU comes to Athens a week from Saturday and a win in that game will set Georgia up for a showdown with the Gators in Jacksonville.

The biggest problem for Georgia over the past 10 years has been their inability to crush lesser opponents. They have played close games with the likes of Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Colorado, Ole Miss, Georgia Southern, and Georgia Tech (when Tech was no where close to Georgia's talent). Georgia has to be dominant on Saturday.

I think this team, with the leadership of Joe Cox will be evident as Georgia comes out sharp and focused against Arizona State.
Prediction: Arizona State 10 Georgia 45

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Mid Week Special

Well I said there wouldn't be many Thursday night games I would comment on and here we are commenting for the second straight week. I don't have much to say about the game between Ole Miss and South Carolina except this.

South Carolina is going to beat Ole Miss.

I'm not sure how, I'm not sure why. But I have a feeling that the Head Ball Coach is going to get the job done against an Ole Miss team that is completely overrated. Ole Miss is good, but the #5 team in the nation.... not even close.

Week 3 Recap

Some weeks in College football are just so good it takes a few days to put it all in prospective. This was one of those weekends. First of all let's start with what really matters. Georgia was impressive in their victory in Arkansas on Saturday night. I know some people will talk about the defense, but let me tell you something, a win on the road in the SEC is an impressive feat no matter who you play. Not to mention that Arkansas is a good team. Ryan Mallet will be playing on Sundays in a few years, and they have a heard of very good receivers.

Joe Cox has his first signature win as Georgia Quarterback. Cox played great on Saturday night, and was named offensive player of the week nationally for his efforts. His leadership and poise was tested when the Dawgs faced a 21-10 deficit after the first quarter. Neither Mark Richt or Joe Cox panicked and Georgia came back to lead at half time.

As I was watching the game in the first half, the crowd enthusiasm reminded me very much of Oklahoma State. For OSU, the Georgia game was the game their players, coaches, and fans had been looking forward to. The same seemed to be true for Arkansas. Erin Andrews made a comment during the game that Ryan Mallet told her he was rooting for Georgia to beat South Carolina, because he wanted Georgia high when they came to Arkansas so they (The Razorbacks) could not Georgia down. Unlike the OSU game, the Dawgs responded, and all of the credit should go the the fifth year senior quarterback, Joe Cox.

Across the nation there were some great games on Saturday. Virginia Tech's last second win over Nebraska was a great ending to a good game. Notre Dame cooled Charlie Weiss' seat just a bit by hanging on and beating Michigan State. The Tennessee Volunteers made it out of Gaines ville with their dignity and a little bit more after playing four solid quarters of football. Lane Kiffin's team should be proud of their performance. And (flu or no flu) honest Florida fans have to be a little bit more nervous now than they were before last weekend's game.

The national surprise of the week was Washington upsetting USC. But why are we surprised? This has been USC calling card for the past couple of seasons. USC apologists will say that you can't criticize Pete Carroll because he has won every big game he has ever played except for the '05 title game against Texas. Those people have a point. But here's the truth. If Pete Carroll could get his team up for mediocre Pac-10 teams, he would have a couple of more chances to win titles. The Stanford loss in '07 and the Oregon State loss last year were the only reasons that USC didn't appear in the national title game each of those years. Washington played a great game, but does anyone think they are the better team?

If you want a bold prediction for the rest of the season, here it is. USC was better than Washington and lost, but they will lose two more games this season. USC will lose to Cal in just a couple of weeks in Prime Time on ABC. Cal's running game will dominate and control the clock. After losing the Cal, USC will lose once more. Maybe they lose to Notre Dame and save Charlie Weiss' job. Maybe they lose to a Stanford or some other inferior Pac-10 team. Maybe they lose to UCLA in their season finale. I don't know where the other loss will come, but I am confident that it will come. The talent level is down at USC this year, and they will not be able to dominate the teams that they usually beat with little or no trouble. If they aren't dominating then I don't think they can win. When was the last time USC won a big game by a small margin. (Please don't say Ohio State, they are not the standard by which success is measured in college football).

After 3 Weeks of the season, here is my Top 10:

1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Penn State
4. Alabama
5. Miami
6. Cal
7. LSU
8. Ole Miss
9. Oklahoma
10. Virginia Tech

Thursday, September 17, 2009

Week 3 Preview

As week 3 of the college football season approaches, there are still many unknowns across the country. USC's victory over Ohio State was less than convincing that the Trojans have the same fire power as they have in the past. There is no team in the ACC that looks like a real National Championship contender. Ditto for the Big 10 and Big East. Can Oklahoma bounce back after an early season loss and get back in the National Title picture?

Without a doubt the biggest question is this:
Is there any team in the nation that can play 4 quarters with the Florida Gators?

At this point, I don't think there is. Florida's offense doesn't seem to be missing the likes of Percy Harvin and Louis Murphy, and Florida's defense might be the best in the nation. The number one Gators get their first test of the season on Saturday, but the game is almost secondary to the off season, off-field banter between the Gator nation and new Tennessee coach Lane Kiffin.

Kiffin's introduction press conference caused a tidal wave of criticism when he made a comment about singing Rocky Top all night after the Vols beat the Gators this year. Even after that comment, Kiffin hinted that Florida had violated NCAA recruiting rules, only to have it revealed that Tennessee itself had made some secondary violations. All of the pretext has been fun for Internet trash talk, but now all that is left is to get on the field and play the game. If Kiffin can beat Florida in the swamp on Saturday, he won't have to say anything, the smile on his face will say it all.

Week 3 Predictions:

Tennessee v. #1 Florida 3:30pm (CBS)
Tim Tebow has completed 64% of his passes so far this season, but hasn't been needed in the second half of either of the Gators first two games. Even if he is not needed, I expect Tebow to play the entire game Saturday as Urban Meyer and the Gators plan on teaching Lane Kiffin what playing in the SEC is like. The Volunteers lost at home last week to UCLA in an ugly game, where QB Jonathan Crompton was 13/26 for only 93 yards while throwing 3 interceptions. Crompton will be the starter again this Saturday in The Swamp, and Florida's defense is much better than the defense of UCLA. As Georgia learned last year, an angry Urban Meyer is a dangerous thing. The question is not whether Florida will win, but by how much will Florida win.
Prediction: Tennessee 10 - Florida 56

#19 Nebraska v. #13 Virginia Tech 3:30 pm (ABC)
This is one of those games that neither program can believe they are actually playing. Nebraska still has to play a very difficult Big 12 schedule this season, and a trip all the way to Blacksberg is not exactly a vacation. For Virginia Tech, although they get this game at home, they have already played and lost to Alabama in the season opener, another loss would really hurt their confidence before they even get into conference play. Tyrod Taylor will have to be more consistent than he was against Alabama if Tech wants a victory, and the Nebraska defense hasn't lived up to the "Black Shirt" standard for a few years now. I think the difference in this game will be the fact that Nebraska hasn't played a truly tough opponent this year (Florida Atlantic and Arkansas State), while Virginia Tech battled to the end against a very strong Alabama team. Virginia Tech is tested and ready.
Prediction: Nebraska 17 - Virginia Tech 23

Florida State v. #7 BYU 7:00 pm
BYU is the best story of the young season. Even before Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford was forced to leave the season opening game against BYU, the Cougars were playing well and controlling OU's high powered offense. The Oklahoma game put the Cougars on the map, this game could take them right off that map. Florida State is a talented team that has the ability to beat BYU. Unlike the Oklahoma game, BYU is expected to beat Florida State. The pressure of high expectations can get to any team. (Just ask Georgia about last season). BYU QB Max Hall played well against Oklahoma but turned the ball over twice on interceptions. FSU has had almost two weeks to get ready for this game after losing their season opener to Miami on Labor Day. BYU will have to be at their best. I think they will be.
Prediction: Florida State 20 - BYU 31

Texas Tech v. #2 Texas 8:00 pm (ABC)
One of the most exciting games of 2008 was the last second victory that Texas Tech had over Texas. The game was costly for Texas who was left out of the BCS Title game despite beating Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry. Texas is once again a national power, however, after losing Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech is in rebuilding mode. I think revenge games are a little over-rated in college football just because there is so much turnover in the players from one year to the next. Not to mention that Texas is playing every week for a National Title, so how much more motivation could they need? Texas will get their revenge and it really shouldn't be close.
Prediction: Texas Tech 24- Texas 45

#23 Georgia v. Arkansas 7:45 pm (ESPN)
Georgia has a lot to prove in Fayetteville. They lose to Oklahoma State in the season opener and looked bad doing it. Last week, they win a shoot out with South Carolina, but give up 37 points to a team that didn't look like they were capable of scoring touchdowns just one week before against North Carolina State. Now Georgia has to travel to Fayetteville and play a rising team in the SEC West in Arkansas. The Razorbacks feature first year starting QB Ryan Mallet who has all of the tools to be a first round draft pick in the NFL. This will be his first SEC start (Mallet is a transfer from Michigan) and he will be eagar to prove that he can compete on college football's highest level. Second year Arkansas coach Bobby Petrino got his first big win last season when his Razorbacks beat LSU, but a win over Georgia this weekend would be a huge stepping stone for the rest of the season.

Watching Georgia last week, you saw the talent that the Dawgs have of the offensive side of the ball. Joe Cox can manage the offense and be effective doing it. AJ Green is the best receiver to ever wear the Red and Black. Brandon Smith is Percy Harvin fast. Richard Samuel is a man who can run the ball down the throat of any defense in the nation. Blair Walsh could kick a 65 yard field goal. These things are all true and are all reasons to believe that Georgia has the chance to have a solid season. The only real question on offense seems to be the tendency in the play calling to get away from the run game.

The problem for Georgia is the same problem the Dawgs had last season. The defense can't get off the field. As I watched the game last week, I was screaming at the television as Georgia was playing a soft zone coverage against South Carolina on third down and less than five. This same thing happened numerous times throughout the game! On third and short, Georgia's line backers and cornerbacks were back peddling off of the line of scrimmage, conceding the first down. It didn't make any sense to me. Now some will say that Georgia was playing a bend but don't break defense, and that it worked because South Carolina was held to field goals numerous times throughout the game. However, good offenses are going to score in the red zone. You can't wait until the red zone to play defense. I believe that Georgia has the talent to be better on defense, I just can't understand for the life of me what Wille Martinez is thinking schematically.

These are the types of games that Georgia wins under Mark Richt. My guess is that it will be ugly and it will be close, but that some how, some way, Georgia will pull out a victory that will leave no one in the Bulldog Nation feeling any better about the rest of the season.
Prediction: Georgia 24 - Arkansas 20

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Thursday Night Special

I'm not usually going to post on the Thursday Night game, but this week I will because Georgia Tech (2-0, 1-0) is playing Miami. This is the second straight Thursday night game for Tech, who beat Clemson at home last week. Tech jumped out to an early lead but let Clemson back in the game in the second half. Miami is playing for the first time since their dramatic victory over Florida State on Labor Day night.

The expectations are high in Atlanta for Tech. After beating Georgia in Athens last year, Tech fans and many pundits felt like this Tech team was ready to take the next step and challenge for an ACC title this season. Those people looked pretty smart at half time last week versus Clemson, however the second half showed that Tech is still a work in progress. Quarterback Josh Nesbitt will have to perform much better than he did against Clemson to come away with a victory on Thursday night.

Miami on the other hand may have found a star in Quarterback Jacory Harris who threw for over 300 yards and 2 touchdowns against FSU. Despite the good, Harris did throw two interceptions that helped keep FSU in the game.

Prediction:
This is one of those early season games that you could see going either way. Last year the Miami defense seemed completely clueless when trying to stop Tech's option offense. Tech racked up over 450 yards on the ground. Tech will not find the same success this year, but they will find enough to win a fifth straight game against the once might Hurricanes. Nesbitt will be better, but still not great. Miami's offense will be a little slow to start out due to the long lay off. I'm banking on the Tech special teams being the difference again, helping the Jackets pull off the 27-21 win at Miami, and putting Tech out front in their division.

Sunday, September 13, 2009

Week 2 Recap

Well it's obvious after week 2 of the college football season that anything is possible this season. USC and freshman quarterback Matt Barkley were able to pull out a victory in Columbus last night over Ohio St. This morning, everyone on ESPN was talking about how Barkley grew up right before their eyes, but I'm not sure what they were watching. Barkley looked like an average freshman, young and indecisive. I think ESPN is just in love with USC and will say anything to keep them on top, and in the news. I will be shocked if they can even make it through the PAC 10 without a loss.

Was it just me or was the Michigan/Notre Dame game a fun game to watch? The two teams may not be contenders for the BCS title, but they are both good and have a lot of talent. They are also evenly matched. I thought it was a great game, but it was a shame that Charlie Weiss couldn't handle losing and didn't go to mid-field to shake Rodriguez's hand.

Tennessee is going to have a long season ahead of them, especially since Lane Kiffin has written some verbal checks that his team is not going to be able to cash. They lost at home to a UCLA team that is getting better, but in no way a great team. I can only imagine what it will look like next week in the swamp.

Oklahoma State just sucks... How do you gut out a win last week the way they did against Georgia and then fail to complete the comeback against Houston? I'm glad that the Cowboy's coach is 42 and I hope they lose every game for the rest of the season.

The Georgia/South Carolina game was one of the strangest Georgia games I can remember. Obviously everyone expected a defensive struggle and got a shoot out, but to me the game just felt weird.

First of all, I'm not convinced that Joe Cox can be the player Georgia needs him to be. Most of the good plays Georgia had in the passing game were spectacular catches by A.J. Green. The reason those catches had to be spectacular was because Cox isn't as accurate as advertised. I think he can get better throughout the season, but I'm surprised he isn't more poised in the pocket being a 5th year senior.

Secondly, Richard Samuel is a 25 carry per game running back so they need to give him the ball. Georgia has always had this idea that they need to outsmart the opposition rather than just executing what they do well against a team that isn't as good as they are. Samuel is a big load to carry and even if he isn't gaining great yardage, he is inflicting pain on the defense and that will add up over the course of the game. Give the man the ball!

A.J. Green may be the best wide out Georgia has ever had.

Thirdly, and most importantly, the Georgia defense is horrible. They have talent, but the defensive game plan last night was terrible. There were many times when South Carolina was in a third and short situation, and the Georgia linebackers are playing 7 yards off the line of scrimmage and back peddling. Willy Martinez was on the hot seat before. Now he is sitting on an inferno. The talent is there, if he can't coach the players up to their full potential then Mark Richt needs to find someone that will. Leadership isn't always about being a good guy and saying the right thing. Sometimes leadership is about making the tough decisions. Richt likes Martinez. I'm sure he is a great guy. But I want a defensive coordinator, not a best friend.

After Week 2, here is my Top 10:
1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Alabama
4. Penn State
5. BYU
6. California
7. USC
8. Boise State
9. LSU
10. Oklahoma