Tuesday, August 27, 2013

College Football Preview: Florida

Florida

2012 Record: 11-2 (7-1 in the SEC)                                      Lost to Louisville 33-23 in the Sugar Bowl

*Disclaimer: I will not pretend that anything written here is unbiased. I hate Florida.  That is all.

2012 Recap:

Never in my memory can I recall a team that won so many games with such a mediocre team.  Florida struggled with Bowling Green in the opening week of the season.  The 20-17 win over Texas A&M looks good now, but honestly Texas A&M wasn't Texas A&M when the Gators played them.  Florida trailed 17-10 at the half, but managed to come back and win late. 

Florida’s best game was a 14-6 win over LSU that probably set SEC football back 100 years.  There is a huge difference between a great defensive struggle and two offenses that couldn’t find the endzone if their lives depended on it.  Combined the teams managed just 20 points, 30 first downs, 437 total offensive yards, and 5 turnovers. 

In some ways, Florida’s loss to Georgia a few weeks later was just as ugly, but in other ways, it was oh so beautiful.  The Georgia loss put Florida behind the Dawgs in the race for Atlanta, and ultimately took the Gators out of the SEC title game.  Florida did manage to beat FSU 37-26 in Tallahassee to finish 11-1.
However, the Gators were simply embarrassing in their Sugar Bowl loss to Louisville.  Losing to Louisville isn’t embarrassing, but seemingly not caring about playing in a big time game like the Sugar Bowl is embarrassing. 

The Schedule:

To say that Florida will be hard pressed to match their total of 11 wins from 2012 is an understatement.  After opening against Toledo in the Swamp, Florida goes on the road to a pretty good Miami team in a game that will kick off at noon on ESPN. Funny things happen in games that kickoff at noon, especially early in the season.

Florida gets Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and FSU at home this year, but has to go on the road against LSU and South Carolina.  Not to mention that Florida has lost their edge in Jacksonville over the past two seasons, dropping two in a row to the Dawgs for the first time since the pre-Spurrier era.  The toughest stretch of the schedule will probably be playing three straight against Georgia, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina.  Those three games will determine if Florida is going to be a player in the SEC East.

Key Returner:

I’ll go with Jeff Driskel, but not for any good reasons.  Driskel was the picture of mediocrity last season.  1646 yards passing with 12 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.  Driskel threw 4 touchdowns against South Carolina in a win, but had only 93 yards passing in that game.  He threw 2 interceptions in a loss to Georgia.  Driskel never threw for more than 216 yards in a game last season and was sacked 36, that’s right, 36 times.  So why is he the key returner? Believe it or not, more will be put on Driskel in 2013.  Last year, he was given the responsibility to not lose games.  In 2013, he will have to be the reason Florida wins games 
because there isn’t much else proven on offense. 

Key Loss:

Mike Gillislee RB. You want to know why Florida won 11 games in 2012?  The first reason is defense, but you can’t win if you don’t score, and the only reason Florida scored in 2012 was Gillislee.  On an offense that ranked 118th out of 120 teams in passing yards per game last season, Gillislee managed over 1150 yards and 10 touchdowns.  He carried the ball a whopping 246 times in 2012. Florida has 6 running backs listed on their depth chart for 2012, they combined for 568 yards last season. 
Gillislee’s loss means that Jeff Driskel will have to be the centerpiece of the offense, a scary thought.

Success will be:

Winning the SEC East.  The Gators had a great season last year, but to realistically put them at the top of the SEC is a bit of a stretch.  Winning the East would be a huge accomplishment for this team.  I don’t think they can run the table in conference, and I don’t think they can beat LSU, so they will have to hope for a win against Georgia or South Carolina, and hope the team they lose to, has more conferences losses than them.
The problem that Florida is going to have is that their fans expect a lot more coming off of last season.  When expectations are high and results fall short in the SEC there is only one thing that follows…

2013 Prediction:

Pain. I think you can put them down for three losses right out of the gate, because this team just isn't on the level of LSU, South Carolina, or Georgia.  Let’s say they split with their two in-state rivals, so I’ll go with 8-4.  I could see them beating both Miami and FSU, but I could also see them losing to a team like Vanderbilt. 


Florida is not accustomed to being a middle of the pack SEC school, and they will not allow themselves to become accustomed to it.  Florida was 7-6 in 2011.  I think they will be mediocre again in 2013.  If Florida wins anything less than 8 games in 2013 Muschamp will be gone and Florida will try to lure Louisville head coach Charlie Strong back to Gainesville where he was a defensive coordinator.  

No comments:

Post a Comment