Georgia Preview
12-2 (7-2 in the SEC) defeated
Nebraska 45-31 in the Capital One Bowl
State of the Dawgs Report:
Before we get to last season, I think it would be
appropriate to take a moment and think about where we were as a program just
two and a half years ago. Following the
2010 season, Georgia had suffered its first losing season under Mark Richt,
thanks to a Liberty Bowl loss to UCF 10-6.
Georgia lost 5 games in the SEC in 2010.
2010 was the lowest of the low points that began in 2008
when Georgia entered the season ranked #1, but would go on to lose three
games. After 2008, Georgia lost Stafford
and Moreno to the NFL, and in 2009 it was obvious that the talent level had
fallen off. Georgia wasn’t just losing
to teams like Florida, LSU, and Alabama, they were losing to Oklahoma State,
Kentucky, and Mississippi State.
Players were getting in trouble on and off the field, and it
really seemed like Mark Richt was losing control of the program.
In 2011, Georgia dropped their first two games of the season
to Boise State and South Carolina. I
really believe that Richt was one loss away from being fired, but that loss
never came. Georgia won 10 straight
games to finish the season 10-2 and won the SEC East. It was the first 10 win season for the team
since 2007.
Despite losses to LSU in the SEC title game and Michigan
State in the Outback Bowl, Georgia had taken a step forward.
Last year, Georgia took yet another step forward. An October loss to South Carolina was a huge
disappointment, but Georgia managed to beat Florida in Jacksonville for the
second straight season, to again win the SEC East.
Obviously, last year’s game against Alabama is both a point
of pride and a scar that will never heal.
Georgia was one play away from the National title. They were as close as they have been since
1/1/83, the last day of the Herschel and Dooley Dynasty.
Georgia is back, and before we can start to look ahead, it
is only right that we take a minute to think back. Perspective is hard to find the SEC, but a
heartbreaking loss to Alabama in the SEC title game is a heck of a lot better
than mind numbing loss to UCF in the Liberty Bowl.
In my opinion, the moral of the story is quite simple. Mark
Richt is the right man for Georgia. No team can stay dominant in this league
forever. Before anyone says Alabama, please take a look at Alabama from 2001 to
2007. Far from dominant. Alabama wasn’t always the Alabama that they are now,
and they won’t be this Alabama forever. They have had one of the best runs in
college football history, and to say that is the standard by which all programs
should be measured is insane.
Richt has played in five SEC title games in his 12 seasons
in Athens. That is 5 more than Georgia had ever played in before Coach Richt
came to Athens. So Georgia fans, please, no matter what happens this season, no
comments about fire Mark Richt. It says less about Richt and more about you.
2012 Recap:
For the first time in a long time, Georgia made it through
the month of September undefeated. They throttled Buffalo early in the season
and won a big game on the road at Missouri. Georgia looked underwhelming
against Florida A&M, but looked almost perfect a week later against
Vanderbilt. Georgia closed out the month with a win against Tennessee where
Georgia broke out to a huge lead in the first half, but ended up letting the
Vols back into the game before winning 51-44.
The three October games defined the season. Georgia was
embarrassed and manhandled on the road at South Carolina in a national
television showdown. The final score was 35-7, but it wasn’t that close. A week
later, Georgia looked lethargic and ineffective against a terrible Kentucky
team. When I say a terrible Kentucky team I don’t mean by SEC standards they
are terrible. I mean by Kentucky football standards (which are almost non-existent)
standards. Georgia hobbled into their bye week feeling about as bad as you can
when your record is 6-1. Georgia then headed to Jacksonville, where so many
previous Georgia team’s dreams died, to play the second ranked Gators. The game
was ugly. Florida scored only 9 points in the game and they turned the ball
over 5 times, but Georgia fans have seen well played games that we have lost,
so any win against the Gators is a good win.
After beating Florida, Georgia was back in the driver’s seat
to get to Atlanta because South Carolina had dropped two straight to Florida
and LSU.
The Dawgs hit their stride with a home win against Ole Miss
and an eastern division title clinching destruction of Auburn on the Plains.
They used Georgia Southern to prepare for Georgia Tech’s triple option and won
both of those games at home to finish the season 11-1 and head to Atlanta to
play Alabama for the SEC title and a spot in the national title game.
We all know how that game went, but the meaning of that game
is yet to be determined. The heartbreak felt by the players, the coaches, and
the fans could be the driving force of the 2013 team, or it could be a point of
doubt in everyone’s minds that leads to a disappointing season. Only time will
tell, but many times, you have to get close to your goal and fail in order to
know just what it takes to win at the highest level. I believe Georgia learned
the hard way last year what it takes to win a national title, and they have
prepared the entire offseason to finish the job in 2013.
The Capital One Bowl victory over a good Nebraska team to
finish the 2012 campaign was impressive to me. Georgia had no reason to be
ready to play in that game. They could have spent their bowl practice time
focusing on what they missed rather than what they had in front on them, but
that isn’t what happened. Georgia played well and won the game 45-31. It was
the 8th time in 14 games they scored 40 or more points.
The Schedule:
Georgia’s high preseason ranking and all of the hype
surrounding the season could be over before Alabama and Texas A&M square
off on September 14th. A
primetime date with Clemson in Death Valley on August 31st is
followed by a SEC East showdown with South Carolina between the hedges. As if that wasn’t enough, Georgia will host
LSU before the end of September.
Much like was the case in 2011, the primetime nationally
televised game to start the season is not nearly as important as the conference
game one week later. After September,
Georgia travels to Tennessee and Vanderbilt, with a home date with Missouri in
between. November brings the Cocktail
Party before games against Appalachian State, Auburn, Kentucky, and a trip down
to Atlanta to face Georgia Tech. If
Georgia is 3-1, no matter who the loss comes to, entering October, Georgia can
just stay in Atlanta after the Tech game, because they will playing in the SEC
title game for the third time in three years.
Key Returner:
Aaron Murray.
Georgia’s offense broke every record in the book last season and pretty
much return everyone in 2013. While Todd
Gurley is the best returning player Georgia has on offense, Murray, a four year
starter, is the key. Murray’s experience
in the offense and his ability to pass the ball as well as any Georgia
quarterback ever has means that defenses won’t be able load up on the run.
The biggest question about Murray is his ability to beat the
best teams. He didn’t play well against Florida last year, but Georgia won the
game. He played well against Alabama, but Georgia lost the game. Murray might
not always be the reason Georgia wins games, but as long as he isn’t the reason
Georgia loses games, then the Dawgs have a shot at a special season.
Questions surround the defense going into this season
because of the names lost on that side of the ball. Without Murray, there would
be the same questions surrounding the offense. Instead, Georgia’s offense is
expected to be one of the best units in the nation and has catapulted Georgia
into the top five in the preseason polls.
By the end of the 2013 season, Aaron Murray will be
statistically the greatest quarterback that has ever worn the Red and
Black. If he can lead Georgia to the
National Title game in his final season in Athens, he should also have a seat
in New York for the Heisman Ceremony in December.
Key Loss:
Jarvis Jones. Other
than David Pollack, no defensive player impacted games like Jones did. Just last season, Georgia would have lost two
more games if it wasn’t for Jones. He
single-handedly changed the Missouri game in the fourth quarter, and for the
second year in a row, he was the difference in Jacksonville. A player like Jones comes along once in a
generation, so there is no way that Georgia can hope to replace him. However, Georgia has the athletes on defense
to still be viable, but it will have to be a collective effort. Jarvis won’t be there this time to save the
day.
Positional Previews:
Offense:
Quarterback: Everyone knows about Aaron Murray and for a few
years now, Georgia coaches have been saying that the offense would be in a
great position if anything happened to Murray because of backup Hutson Mason.
The new name for Georgia fans to put on their radar is Bryce Ramsey. Ramsey
enrolled at Georgia last January and was able to take part in spring practice,
just like Aaron Murray did as a freshman. Ramsey will red shirt this year with
so much depth at quarterback, but more and more we are hearing that Ramsey
could have a legitimate shot at starting next season. I have always thought
that Hutson Mason would have a DJ Shockley type of season in 2014 where he
would get to start in his senior season after waiting patiently for so long. If
Ramsey is really good enough to challenge for the job next year it will mean
that Georgia will be inexperienced at quarterback, but not void of talent.
Running back: Can you believe that only one year ago we were
worried about the running back position? There are no worries in 2013. The two
headed monster of Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall give Georgia the best one-two
punch at running back in the nation. Do you remember how Ken Malcome got a good
number of carries last year, even with Gurley and Marshall playing so well?
This year, the man getting those carries will be freshman JJ Green. Green is
5-8, 171 pounds from Camden County, GA. Apparently, he has turned quite a few
heads during fall practice. If he can pick up the blocking schemes that Georgia
uses, Georgia will have one more body they can put in the backfield during the
long SEC season.
Tight end: Georgia has two phenomenal tight ends. Arthur
Lynch was named to the first team All SEC team, and Jay Rome might actually be
better in pass catching situations. Georgia will have a ton of options on
offense this year, but their ability to play two tight end formations that they
can pass out of because of their two pass catching tight ends is one of many
matchup problems that teams will face this year. One thing Georgia might need
to find this season is a solid blocker at the tight end position. While both
Lynch and Rome are good at blocking and great at pass catching, Georgia needs
to find a third tight end that can help the offensive line in run blocking
situations and jumbo packages.
Offensive Line: All five starters are back from an offensive
line that got better as they went along in 2012. In fact, Georgia brings back
everyone on the offensive line other than senior Austin Long who left the team
for academic reasons. There might not be one big name on the offensive line,
but their ability to work together as a unit could be one more addition to an
offense that should be one of the best in the country. Sophomore John Theus
took a lot of lumps last year as a freshman, but if he can take the next step
in playing right tackle, then the line could be better than good, it could be
great. One thing that is for sure, the best story surrounding this team is
found on the offensive line. Kolton Houston was pretty much done at Georgia. He
was literally down to his last test as he fought the NCAA to get reinstated
after mistakenly being administered steroids when he was still in high school.
Houson was reinstated by the NCAA on his birthday, and will now be on the field
for the Dawgs for the first time in 2013. It almost doesn’t matter how Houston
plays, but if he becomes a key piece on the offensive line, it will make for
even a better story that already has a happy ending.
Wide Receiver: First let’s start with the names you already
know. The receivers are led by junior Malcolm Mitchell. Mitchell is a home run
threat each and every time he touches the ball. It was Mitchell’s run after
catch last season that scored the game clinching touchdown in the Florida game.
Mitchell will only be played on offense in 2013 after playing on both sides of
the ball in 2012. After suffering a season ending injury in 2012, Michael
Bennett will be back in 2013. Bennett has the best hands on the team and is the
most consistent target for Aaron Murray. Chris Conley is also back after having
a great year in 2012. Conley is most remembered for not dropping the final pass
of the SEC title game, but this year, I think Conley will give us other things
to remember. Amazingly, Rantavious Wooten is back for what seems like his 8th
season in Athens, but is actually on his senior season. Rhett McGowan also made
some big catches in 2012 and he is back for his senior season as well.
Justin Scott-Wesley isn’t a new name, but he will see more
of the field in 2013 than he has in the past. Scott-Wesley is 5-11, 201 pounds,
and is quick as a hiccup. In high school Scott-Wesley was a track star that won
a total of 3 state titles in the 300 meter and 100 meter dashes.
Two new names that will contribute in 2013 are Jonathan
Rumph and Tramel Terry. Rumph is a 6-5 junior college transfer who will give
Georgia another threat in the red zone with his size. Tramel Terry is a true
freshman who was the number one recruit in the state of South Carolina in 2013.
If Terry gets on the field against Clemson and South Carolina early in the
season he may be extra motivated to make some noise against the schools from
his home state.
Just to give you an example of what Georgia can do on
offense in 2013, you could have Todd Gurley as a single set back with Mitchell,
Conely, Scott-Wesley, and Bennett lined up at receiver. In this situation, you
would either have only one man on Gurley if you decided to run the ball, or a
line backer trying to cover one of those receivers.
Georgia will use their hurry up offense even more in 2013,
allowing them to keep the same defensive players on the field when they have
matchups that they find advantageous. If you want a fun exercise to do
throughout the season, count the number of times teams take timeouts on defense
just so they can get the proper personnel in the game.
Defense:
Defensive Line: One of the biggest parts of a 3-4 defense is
the nose tackle. For the past two years, Georgia has been spoiled because they
had not one, but two prototypical nose tackles. The perfect nose tackle weighs
about 325 pounds, and requires two offensive linemen to stop him on each and
every play. That double team is what makes the numbers work on a 3-4 defense.
Five offensive linemen to block three defensive linemen will never work, even
if you bring a linebacker blitzing on the play, it’s still 4 on 5 in favor of
the offense. But if your nose tackle requires a double team, well then you only
have one man left to block that blitzing linebacker, and when that linebacker
is Jarvis Jones or Alec Ogletree, it’s not a good day to be the offensive
linemen trying to pick the linebacker up. Georgia has many questions on defense
in 2013, but the most basic and fundamental question is whether or not Georgia
can replace Kwame Geathers and John Jenkins at the nose tackle position. Mike
Thornton is 6-1 and 290 pounds, and he is listed as the starter right now at
nose tackle for Georgia. His back up is a redshirt sophomore named Chris Mayes
(6-4, 321). If either one of those two guys can step up and be a legitimate
nose tackle, then Georgia’s defense can be better than most people are
expecting. At the defensive end position, Garrison Smith is a rare bread for
Georgia in 2013. He is a senior and a proven player who will contribute from
day one. At the other end position, Sterling Bailey is listed ahead of Ray
Drew. For Drew, his junior season might be his last chance to live up to the
hype that came along with his recruitment in 2011. He might be wearing number
47, but that is as far as the comparisons go between Ray Drew and David
Pollack.
Linebacker: Next to wide receiver, this is Georgia’s deepest
position. Jordan Jenkins will be a superstar. It is hard to compare someone to
Jarvis Jones, but if anyone deserves that comparison, it is Jenkins. By the end
of last season, he was starting as a true freshman, and he was a legitimate
threat opposite of Jones. The other outside linebacker spot is currently filled
by James DeLoach, who at 6-3 and 265, has impressed the coaches during fall
practice.
Georgia has returning experience at both inside linebacker
positions as Amarlo Herrera and Ramik Wilson are both juniors who have seen
significant playing time in their careers. Both starters were freshmen when
Todd Grantham’s 3-4 defense was installed before the 2011 season, and both
should be major contributors in the 2013.
Even though he is not listed on the two-deep depth chart to
start the season, remember the name Johnny O’Neal. He is exactly what a
football player is supposed to look like, and I think he might be the next star
on defense for Georgia.
Secondary: The two cornerback spots are pretty set. Junior
Damian Swann was a starter last season and he returns in 2013 as the leader of
the secondary. Sophomore Sheldon Dawson played some last season, and seems to
have solidified a spot in the starting lineup. Shaq Wiggins and Brendan Langley
are both true freshman that will play significant time for Georgia this year.
Both were highly recruited, but being freshmen, both will probably make their
fair share of mistakes, especially early in the season.
If you aren’t nervous yet, then keep reading.
Safety could end up being a strong point of this team by the
time the season ends, but right now, it has to be the biggest question mark for
the Dawgs as they head to Clemson. Connor Norman is a former walk on who is now
a junior, and he is listed as the starter at strong safety. That position will
ultimately be filled by Josh Harvey-Clemons, but Josh will not make the trip to
Clemson because of a suspension. Trey Matthews was another big time recruit for
Georgia this past February, but now he is going to be the starter at free safety.
The only problem is that Matthews has suffered from injury after injury going
all the way back to spring football. He will most likely start against Clemson,
but in truth he hasn’t practiced in more than a week, so how prepared he will
be against Clemson’s potent offense will be one of the biggest things to keep
an eye on in the opener.
Again, I think the defense is going to be great by the end
of the year, but they have to be great in the first four games of the season
unless they want to showcase their skills in the Outback Bowl.
Special Teams: Colin Barber and Marshall Morgan are both
back for their sophomore season. Barber was solid at punter last season.
Honestly, as good as Georgia’s offense is, I’m not sure how many pressure
punting situations Barber is going to see this year.
Morgan on the other hand is a problem. Morgan missed 4 extra
points in 2013 and was only 8-14 on field goals. For years, going back to Billy
Bennett, Brandon Coutu, and Blair Walsh, Georgia has had strong legged kickers
who could hit long field goals on a regular basis. Last year Morgan was only
3-8 on field goals of 40+ yards. On top of a shaky season in 2012, Morgan will
probably miss the season’s opening game because he was arrested this summer for
boating under the influence. My hope is that Morgan is replaced by a walk on
that, you know, can actually make field goals. Quick, what do you call a kicker
that can’t kick? Exactly.
I have heard nothing to support what I am about to say, but
I would guess that with Georgia’s depth at wide receiver you will see Malcolm
Mitchell much more in kick and punt return situations this year. It that does
happen, it will be great for Georgia. Mitchell is a threat to score every time
he gets the ball in his hands, so the more times he can touch it, the better.
No official word has been given, but I would be willing to bet that Rhett
McGowan will be Georgia’s dreaded fair catch expert again in 2013.
Success Will Be:
It’s amazing how quickly expectations rise. Rightly or
wrongly, Georgia is expected to play in the SEC title game again, and after
their performance last season, I think they need to win it. There is only one
thing that Mark Richt hasn’t done in his time at Georgia, and until he does
that one thing, I don’t think his job will truly be safe. The only thing worse
for Georgia than not making it to the SEC and/or national title games in 2013
would becoming the first SEC school to lose a national title game to a non-SEC
school. Can you imagine the pressure now on any SEC school playing in the title
game? You don’t want to be the team that breaks the streak.
Prediction:
On Saturday October 29, 2011 I sat in my brother’s new house
and watched the Georgia/Florida game. I told the people watching the game that
day that if Georgia could manage to win that game, they would play in three
consecutive SEC title games.
Mark Richt went for it on fourth down twice that day, and
twice it resulted in touchdowns. Georgia beat Florida, won the East and played
LSU for the SEC title.
Obviously, Georgia overcame the loss to South Carolina last
season to reach the SEC title game again. This time, Georgia played very well,
and almost punched their ticket to the national title game.
I believe 2013 will be the year Georgia fans have been
waiting on since 1980. More and more, at every level, football is becoming a
game about offense.
Wait, old people say all the time that defense wins
championships. That has to be true, right?
Wrong.
Offense wins championships. Points win championships.
But, Alabama had a great defense the last two years and they
won the title. Yes, but they also had great offenses. Remember, last year there
were serious conversations about Alabama having the greatest offensive line in college football
history. Alabama destroyed Notre Dame in the title game 42-14. Not 17-14, but
42 points.
I’m not saying you don’t have to play defense at all, but I
am saying that football has changed because of the awareness that has been
raised regarding player safety. You can’t hit the quarterback. You can’t hit
defenseless receivers. You can’t touch a receiver after five yards. You can’t
lower your helmet to hit the guy with the ball. All of these rules have been
instituted over the past 5 or 10 years and they all make it harder to play
defense.
Think back over this run that the SEC has had since 2006. In
2006 and 2008 Florida had a good defense, but they also had Tim Tebow and Percy
Harvin. In 2007, LSU had Matt Flynn (okay that is pretty weak sauce, but keep
reading), in 2009 Alabama had Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson, and Julio Jones.
In 2010 Auburn had Michael Dyer and Scam Newton. In 2011, Richardson was still
at Alabama and they added Eddy Lacy. And last year’s Alabama team had Lacy,
Yeldon, and Amare Cooper to go along with that offensive line.
Other than Flynn, the names I just mentioned aren’t just
players that had a good game or a good season, they are some of the best
players in college football and it isn’t a coincidence that they have national
title rings.
Georgia will have one of the best offenses in college
football in 2013. They have weapons all over the field. They have an offensive
line that was good last year and should be great this year. They have the best running
back in the country who should be able to close out games. They have a quarterback
who needs to cement his legacy. They have a coach who was an offensive genius
before he was a head coach. They have every ingredient you need to make a great
offense.
They won’t lead the country in scoring because in the SEC
you play teams that actually play as much defense as they are allowed to play,
but they will prove against those tough defenses just how good they are.
My predictions for Georgia have been right on the money the
past two years. (Go back and check this blog if you don’t believe me) Here is
my prediction for 2013. Georgia will be either 11-1 or 12-0 playing for the SEC
title and a chance to play for the national championship again, and this time,
I believe it is our time.
I have done previews on pretty much every serious contender in
college football. More and more I see that while Georgia has its flaws, Georgia
is no more flawed than any of the other contenders.
The team’s motto for the season is New Year. New Team. One
Dream.
One dream indeed.
Go Dawgs!
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