Here's to Hoping the Numbers Never Lie

In college and professional sports, numbers are retired all the time. A player has a great career, and his team or university wants him to forever be the only person associated with that number. As a fan, that number starts to hold a special place in your heart and in your mind.

If you are a Braves fan, or even a baseball fan and I say 755 what do you think of? Hank Aaron’s career home run total. (Which is still the all time record for someone whose head didn’t magically grow at age 35.)

If you are a Chicago Bulls fan and I say 23, all you are going to be able to think about is Michael Jordan and the glory days of the 1990’s.

Sometimes in sports, you can look back and notice that something just worked out the way it was supposed to. For example, the Red Sox hadn’t won the World Series since 1918. In 1986, they were three outs away from ending the Curse of the Bambino, but then they became the Red Sox again, and managed to lose the World Series to the Mets. For years, if you talked about the number 86 to a Red Sox fan all they would see was Bill Buckner missing that ground ball.

The Red Sox finally won the World Series in 2004. Ironically, it had been exactly 86 years since they last won it in 1918.

Some teams have a lot of numbers that invoke those types of memories.

For the Georgia Bulldogs there is only one number: 34.

I say 34 and your mind immediately goes to images of a white jersey with red pants running straight over that hideous orange uniform of Tennessee. As you picture the play happening in your mind, the narration from the Mighty Munson automatically switches on, and at the end of the play you are left hearing that famous voice make one of his most famous calls and with utter amazement and awe exclaim, “my God a freshman.”

I say 34 and you are going to think back to the glory days, 1980-1982 when the Georgia Bulldogs ruled the college football world. With the number 34 in the backfield, Georgia went 33-3. During that time, they lost only one game during the regular season, and won the national title in 1980.

Any time there is a running back that plays well at the University of Georgia he will be immediately, and unfairly, compared to the iconic number 34.

Watching Georgia play Tennessee in 2012 you saw Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall, both freshman, dominate the game in the first half. They were almost taking turns running through the Tennessee defense. I sent out a message on Facebook that said there would never be another 34, but we got a 3 and a 4, and that ain’t bad.

Georgia fans can’t escape the number 34, and we don’t want to.

The number 34 has been very good to Georgia fans, and recently the numbers 3 and 4 have been pretty good to us as well.

There is nothing scientific about it, but if you need a good omen that makes you raise your eyebrows about the 2014 season just think about this:

How many years has it been since 1980?

Go Dawgs! 

2014 State of the Dawgs Report

We are less than 50 days away from the start of the 2014 college football season, and it’s time to start getting ready for what will be an historic ride.

Today we are going to examine the state of the Bulldog Nation.

One year ago, Georgia was heading into the 2013 season with the highest of expectations and a schedule that seemed impossible to tame. Coming up 8 yards short of a probable national title in 2012 had left the team, coaches, and fans expecting greatness.

Things didn’t work out for Georgia last season, and now we are left to wonder what comes next for our beloved Bulldogs.

Mark Richt is entering his 14 season as the head coach of the Georgia Bulldogs. He is the dean of SEC coaches. He has won 2 SEC titles and a total of 5 SEC East titles. His teams have finished in the Top 10 7 times in his 13 years in Athens. He is universally respected as one of the top football coaches in the country, and even more respected for being one of the best men in college football.

But the fact of the matter is that college football is a results business, and there has been a clear drop off in the results for Georgia over the past six seasons.

ESPN has a show called “The Numbers Never Lie,” so here is a big dose of truth for Georgia fans:

From 2001 to 2007 Georgia won 79% of their games while winning 2 SEC titles and finishing in the Top 10 five times in seven seasons.

From 2008 to 2013 Georgia has won 68% of their games. They have played in 2 SEC titles games but come up short both times. They have only finished in the Top 10 of the final AP Poll once in that time period.

You could argue that from 2001-2007 Georgia was one of the best programs in the country on a year in and year out basis. For the past 6 seasons, Georgia has averaged losing 4 games a season which is the very definition of mediocrity.

In his time at Georgia, Mark Richt has seen four SEC schools win a total of 8 national championships, including 7 in a row from 2006-2012.

It would be difficult to argue that Georgia’s stock as a program is on the rise, but what has changed over the past 6 years that has lead to the downturn? Did the coaches forget how to coach? Did they forget how to recruit? Is Mark Richt too nice to win in the cutthroat world of college football?

I believe there is a single statistic that can explain the reason for Georgia’s failures over the past 6 seasons: points per game allowed. The answer to all of Georgia’s problems is defense.

From 2001-2007 the Georgia defense allowed an average of 17.0 points per game. There was only one season during that time frame when Georgia allowed more than 20 points per game, and that was in 2007 when Matt Stafford, Knowshon Moreno, and AJ Green were all playing on Georgia’s offense. 

In the first 7 seasons under Mark Richt Georgia produced NFL players like Boss Bailey, Odell Thurmond, David Pollack, Thomas Davis, Tim Jennings, and Charles Johnson who have all had at least a moderate level of success in the league.

From 2008-2013 the Georgia defense has allowed an average of 23.6 points per game. During that stretch, there has been only one season where Georgia has allowed an average of less than 20 points per game, and that was 19.6 points per game in the 2012 season.

Georgia went a long time without having a defensive player taken in the first round of the NFL draft, but that changed in 2013 when Alec Ogletree and Jarvis Jones were both selected in the first round. More telling is the fact that Geno Atkins was an average player at Georgia, but has become one of the most dominant players in the NFL. Why couldn't Georgia get that type of performance out of Geno while he was playing between the hedges?

The biggest question under Todd Grantham was not whether or not Georgia had talent on defense, it was whether or not those talented players could actually stop SEC offenses.

2013 was by far the worst defensive season for Georgia in the Richt era. Georgia allowed an average of 29 points per game last season. That is 3.9 points per game worse than the previous high of 25.9 in 2009. Not only did the defense give up points, but they seemed to be unorganized and confused more often than not. If you don't think that the defense cost Georgia last year, consider this. Georgia averaged 36.7 points per game last season, but lost 4 of their five games by less than a touchdown. That is unacceptable. 

The best thing Todd Grantham ever did for the University of Georgia was leaving to take the job at Louisville. For whatever reason, probably his big contract, Richt was going to bring Grantham back for the 2014 season.

With Grantham out of the way, Richt went out and made what I believe will be considered the best hire of his entire tenure at Georgia. Richt got the defensive coordinator from the defending National Champion Florida State Seminoles to make a lateral move to come to Georgia.

Jeremy Pruitt has made his presence known quickly at Georgia. Many reporters noted that he was the most vocal coach on the field during spring practice, and he has made no secret that his first order of business is to simplify the game plan moving forward.

The front seven of the defense is stacked with experience and talent, but the secondary is a little shaky because of the loss of 3 guys who were slated to start this season. JJ Green, who started at running back last year when Gurley and Marshall went down with injuries is now playing cornerback, and from all accounts he looks great.

Even with the losses in the secondary, I think Georgia’s defense is going to be dramatically better this season. The major problem that I have had with Georgia defense for many years now is that the players seemingly don’t get better from season to season.

Think about it. Jordan Jenkins was great as a freshman in 2012, and average last season. Damian Swann was spectacular as a sophomore in 2012, and average last season. Jarvis Jones was a beast from day one, but he has struggled in the NFL because he had a lot to learn. Grantham wasn’t making guys better.

Jeremy Pruitt inherited a great defense last year at Florida State, but before that he was the secondary coach at Alabama for two national title winning teams. Pruitt knows how to coach, not just how to call plays. He is going to make this defense better each and every week. Just look at the adjustments that he made against Auburn in the national title game. Auburn led 21-10 at half time and looked like they were going to roll to a title, but Pruitt’s defense shut out the Tigers in the third quarter and held them to only 10 points in the fourth quarter, giving Florida State’s offense a chance to win the game, which they did.

Over the past three seasons, and last year especially, Georgia has won despite their defense. Moving forward that will not be the case.

Georgia has a favorable schedule in 2014. They have so many weapons on offense that it is hard to list them all. Georgia has a 5^th year senior at quarterback, who sacrificed four years of college eligibility for this one season to be the quarterback in Athens. Georgia has a brand new staff coaching defense and a new philosophy that will allow talented players to make plays.

Nothing is easy in the SEC, but if Georgia catches a couple of breaks, there is no reason that the Dawgs can’t be in the discussion for the new college football playoff.

Bulldog Nation, the state of our program is strong.