The Showdown in Death Valley

Georgia at Clemson

It doesn’t get any bigger than Georgia’s season opener.  Two top ten teams with national title aspirations, renewing a historical rivalry, squaring off in one of the best venues in all of college football. There will be a moment, just before the games starts, that is a perfect example of why college football is so fantastic. Georgia will enter the stadium just before Clemson runs down the hill touching Howard’s Rock. As fans of both schools go crazy cheering for their team, take a moment to appreciate the tradition of college football.  

Two schools, separated by less than 100 miles, and two passionate fan bases, starving for a championship.

The Georgia/Clemson rivalry dates all the way back to 1897. Georgia leads the all time series, 41-17-4. Georgia holds a record of 8-6-2 at Memorial Stadium, also known as Death Valley. The last meeting was in 2003, when Georgia, the defending SEC champion, shut out Clemson 30-0 on their own field.  Georgia has won the last five games played between the two teams. The last Georgia loss came at Clemson in 1990.

The 2013 edition of the Georgia/Clemson game will be the second biggest in the history of the rivalry.

I say this is the second biggest because of the magnitude of the 1982 game.  The game was played on Labor Day night, and it was a matchup of the last two national champions. Georgia, the 1980 champions defeated 1981 national champion Clemson 13-7 in Athens. Georgia was led by an injured Herschel Walker, who would go on to win the Heisman Trophy that same year.

As for this year’s game, the storylines are endless.

For Georgia, the 2013 season will be all about trying to get back to the SEC title game and finish the job. I still think about that loss at least once a week, and I’m sure the players think about it daily. How does Georgia respond? Do they step up, or do they fall apart after getting so close?

For Clemson, they are trying to prove to themselves and the rest of the country that they belong in the national title conversation. They are riding high after beating LSU in the Chick-fil-A Bowl in 2012, and their top 10 ranking gives them a realistic shot to play for a national title if they can run the table. They have a favorable schedule, and expectations are high. How will they handle the pressure?

All of the questions won’t be answered on Saturday night, but a few will.

All of the hype leading up to the game has been about the quarterbacks. Both Tajh Boyd and Aaron Murray returned to their respective schools for their senior season to try and win a title.

 In his first year as a starter, Boyd led the Tigers to the ACC championship, but that season is most remembered by the unholy beating that Clemson took in the Orange Bowl, a 70-33 loss to West Virginia. Boyd has been remarkably consistent the past two years, and his ability to throw the ball down field to superstar wide receiver Sammy Watkins has been keeping Todd Grantham up at night.

For Murray, the 2013 season, and this game in particular is all about changing the narrative that has followed him his entire career. Murray has led the Dawgs to 2 straight SEC title games, but hasn’t been able to win either of them. The record speaks for itself. Murray is 3-14 in his Georgia career against Top 25 teams. Murray has won a lot of games, but the best win on his resume is against Florida last year, in a game that he didn’t even play particularly well in. Murray has the stats to be an all time quarterback, but he still has much to prove to the Bulldog Nation. Can Murray win the big game? We will find out on Saturday night.

There are many similarities when you look at these two teams.

Both teams have senior quarterbacks leading offenses that should score almost every time they touch the ball. Both teams have dynamic receivers. Both teams have offensive minded head coaches, and both teams have serious questions on the defensive side of the ball.

It would be easy to say the obvious. The team that doesn’t turn the ball over is going to win the game. To me, that is like saying the team that scores the most points is going to win the game. You can’t predict turnovers.

If either Boyd or Murray throws three picks, well, their team is probably going to lose.

I don’t think either of these quarterbacks is going to lose the game.

In my opinion, each team has a decided advantage in one area.

For Clemson, they have a huge edge in the kicking game. Some people might roll their eyes, but in a game that most people think will be very close, it could come down to a kicker. Senior Chandler Catanzaro was 18 of 19 on field goal attempts and only missed two of the 59 extra points he attempted last year.

Compare that with Georgia kicker Marshall Morgan who was only 8 of 14 last year and missed four extra points. Obviously, Georgia loses when it comes to the starting kickers, but the real problem for the Dawgs is that Morgan, presumably Georgia’s best kicker, won’t play on Saturday night because he was boating under the influence. Jimmy Buffet would be so proud. No other Georgia kicker has attempted a kick of any kind of consequence. Hopefully they won’t have to attempt one on Saturday night in Death Valley.

Georgia’s edge in this game is very simple: Todd Gurley. Todd Gurley might be the best running back in the country. Todd Gurley is the kind of running back that you can hand the ball to 25 times in an atmosphere like Death Valley and take the air out of the stadium. There is nothing on paper that tells me Clemson will have any chance of slowing down, let alone stopping Todd Gurley. In the Mark Richt Era, Georgia has lost only four games where a back has gone for over 100 yards. Perhaps the best thing about Georgia’s running situation is that they have a backup that was more highly recruited than their starter. Keith Marshall has taken a backseat to Gurley and his power running game, but Marshall’s change of pace and ability to catch the ball out of the backfield will be just one more thing Clemson, and every other team Georgia plays this year, will have to prepare for.

I don’t think there is any doubt that Georgia will be able to run the football, but what about Clemson?

In 2013, you can’t be one dimensional on offense and expect to win. Last season, Clemson was balanced on offense because they had Andre Ellington. Ellington ran for over 1000 yards last year, and he was enough of a factor in the backfield that teams had to respect the run. This year, Clemson will be depending on Roderick McDowell and Zac Brooks to shoulder the load at running back, but in their careers they have combined for less than 800 yards rushing. If Clemson can’t run the ball early against Georgia, and they become strictly a passing team, then it will make it much easier for Georgia’s young defense to do their job. Tajh Boyd is very good, but he can’t win the game by himself.

One thing the Georgia defense will want to keep an eye out for is Sammy Watkins on trick plays. If Clemson struggles running the ball early, I think they will try a reverse or some other type of trick play to get the ball in Watkins’ hands. If I have thought of this, then so has Todd Grantham. Hopefully Georgia’s defense will be ready.

So, what is going to happen?

Georgia’s ability to run the ball will be the difference. I see a back and forth game in the first half, but slowly, Georgia pulls away in the second half because of their ability to throw off play action fakes. Fakes set up by Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall running up and down the field on Clemson’s defense.

Murray will play well, but Gurley will be the person everyone is talking about on Sunday morning. By the end of the night, Georgia will have rushed for over 200 yards and will approach 500 yards of total offense.

This is not going to be an easy game for Georgia. Clemson is extremely talented, and that stadium will be rocking. Georgia has played in big games before, and that experience will be invaluable on Saturday night.

Georgia 45   Clemson 34

GO DAWGS!

College Football Preview: Georgia

Georgia Preview

12-2 (7-2 in the SEC)                                                   defeated Nebraska 45-31 in the Capital One Bowl

State of the Dawgs Report:

Before we get to last season, I think it would be appropriate to take a moment and think about where we were as a program just two and a half years ago.  Following the 2010 season, Georgia had suffered its first losing season under Mark Richt, thanks to a Liberty Bowl loss to UCF 10-6.  Georgia lost 5 games in the SEC in 2010. 

2010 was the lowest of the low points that began in 2008 when Georgia entered the season ranked #1, but would go on to lose three games.  After 2008, Georgia lost Stafford and Moreno to the NFL, and in 2009 it was obvious that the talent level had fallen off.  Georgia wasn’t just losing to teams like Florida, LSU, and Alabama, they were losing to Oklahoma State, Kentucky, and Mississippi State. 

Players were getting in trouble on and off the field, and it really seemed like Mark Richt was losing control of the program. 

In 2011, Georgia dropped their first two games of the season to Boise State and South Carolina.  I really believe that Richt was one loss away from being fired, but that loss never came.  Georgia won 10 straight games to finish the season 10-2 and won the SEC East.  It was the first 10 win season for the team since 2007. 

Despite losses to LSU in the SEC title game and Michigan State in the Outback Bowl, Georgia had taken a step forward.

Last year, Georgia took yet another step forward.  An October loss to South Carolina was a huge disappointment, but Georgia managed to beat Florida in Jacksonville for the second straight season, to again win the SEC East. 

Obviously, last year’s game against Alabama is both a point of pride and a scar that will never heal.  Georgia was one play away from the National title.  They were as close as they have been since 1/1/83, the last day of the Herschel and Dooley Dynasty. 

Georgia is back, and before we can start to look ahead, it is only right that we take a minute to think back.  Perspective is hard to find the SEC, but a heartbreaking loss to Alabama in the SEC title game is a heck of a lot better than mind numbing loss to UCF in the Liberty Bowl.

In my opinion, the moral of the story is quite simple. Mark Richt is the right man for Georgia. No team can stay dominant in this league forever. Before anyone says Alabama, please take a look at Alabama from 2001 to 2007. Far from dominant. Alabama wasn’t always the Alabama that they are now, and they won’t be this Alabama forever. They have had one of the best runs in college football history, and to say that is the standard by which all programs should be measured is insane.

Richt has played in five SEC title games in his 12 seasons in Athens. That is 5 more than Georgia had ever played in before Coach Richt came to Athens. So Georgia fans, please, no matter what happens this season, no comments about fire Mark Richt. It says less about Richt and more about you.

2012 Recap:

For the first time in a long time, Georgia made it through the month of September undefeated. They throttled Buffalo early in the season and won a big game on the road at Missouri. Georgia looked underwhelming against Florida A&M, but looked almost perfect a week later against Vanderbilt. Georgia closed out the month with a win against Tennessee where Georgia broke out to a huge lead in the first half, but ended up letting the Vols back into the game before winning 51-44.

The three October games defined the season. Georgia was embarrassed and manhandled on the road at South Carolina in a national television showdown. The final score was 35-7, but it wasn’t that close. A week later, Georgia looked lethargic and ineffective against a terrible Kentucky team. When I say a terrible Kentucky team I don’t mean by SEC standards they are terrible. I mean by Kentucky football standards (which are almost non-existent) standards. Georgia hobbled into their bye week feeling about as bad as you can when your record is 6-1. Georgia then headed to Jacksonville, where so many previous Georgia team’s dreams died, to play the second ranked Gators. The game was ugly. Florida scored only 9 points in the game and they turned the ball over 5 times, but Georgia fans have seen well played games that we have lost, so any win against the Gators is a good win.

After beating Florida, Georgia was back in the driver’s seat to get to Atlanta because South Carolina had dropped two straight to Florida and LSU.

The Dawgs hit their stride with a home win against Ole Miss and an eastern division title clinching destruction of Auburn on the Plains. They used Georgia Southern to prepare for Georgia Tech’s triple option and won both of those games at home to finish the season 11-1 and head to Atlanta to play Alabama for the SEC title and a spot in the national title game.

We all know how that game went, but the meaning of that game is yet to be determined. The heartbreak felt by the players, the coaches, and the fans could be the driving force of the 2013 team, or it could be a point of doubt in everyone’s minds that leads to a disappointing season. Only time will tell, but many times, you have to get close to your goal and fail in order to know just what it takes to win at the highest level. I believe Georgia learned the hard way last year what it takes to win a national title, and they have prepared the entire offseason to finish the job in 2013.

The Capital One Bowl victory over a good Nebraska team to finish the 2012 campaign was impressive to me. Georgia had no reason to be ready to play in that game. They could have spent their bowl practice time focusing on what they missed rather than what they had in front on them, but that isn’t what happened. Georgia played well and won the game 45-31. It was the 8^th time in 14 games they scored 40 or more points.

The Schedule:

Georgia’s high preseason ranking and all of the hype surrounding the season could be over before Alabama and Texas A&M square off on September 14^th.  A primetime date with Clemson in Death Valley on August 31^st is followed by a SEC East showdown with South Carolina between the hedges.  As if that wasn’t enough, Georgia will host LSU before the end of September.

Much like was the case in 2011, the primetime nationally televised game to start the season is not nearly as important as the conference game one week later.  After September, Georgia travels to Tennessee and Vanderbilt, with a home date with Missouri in between.  November brings the Cocktail Party before games against Appalachian State, Auburn, Kentucky, and a trip down to Atlanta to face Georgia Tech.  If Georgia is 3-1, no matter who the loss comes to, entering October, Georgia can just stay in Atlanta after the Tech game, because they will playing in the SEC title game for the third time in three years. 

Key Returner:

Aaron Murray.  Georgia’s offense broke every record in the book last season and pretty much return everyone in 2013.  While Todd Gurley is the best returning player Georgia has on offense, Murray, a four year starter, is the key.  Murray’s experience in the offense and his ability to pass the ball as well as any Georgia quarterback ever has means that defenses won’t be able load up on the run. 

The biggest question about Murray is his ability to beat the best teams. He didn’t play well against Florida last year, but Georgia won the game. He played well against Alabama, but Georgia lost the game. Murray might not always be the reason Georgia wins games, but as long as he isn’t the reason Georgia loses games, then the Dawgs have a shot at a special season.

Questions surround the defense going into this season because of the names lost on that side of the ball. Without Murray, there would be the same questions surrounding the offense. Instead, Georgia’s offense is expected to be one of the best units in the nation and has catapulted Georgia into the top five in the preseason polls.

By the end of the 2013 season, Aaron Murray will be statistically the greatest quarterback that has ever worn the Red and Black.  If he can lead Georgia to the National Title game in his final season in Athens, he should also have a seat in New York for the Heisman Ceremony in December.

Key Loss:

Jarvis Jones.  Other than David Pollack, no defensive player impacted games like Jones did.  Just last season, Georgia would have lost two more games if it wasn’t for Jones.  He single-handedly changed the Missouri game in the fourth quarter, and for the second year in a row, he was the difference in Jacksonville.  A player like Jones comes along once in a generation, so there is no way that Georgia can hope to replace him.  However, Georgia has the athletes on defense to still be viable, but it will have to be a collective effort.  Jarvis won’t be there this time to save the day.

Positional Previews:

Offense:

Quarterback: Everyone knows about Aaron Murray and for a few years now, Georgia coaches have been saying that the offense would be in a great position if anything happened to Murray because of backup Hutson Mason. The new name for Georgia fans to put on their radar is Bryce Ramsey. Ramsey enrolled at Georgia last January and was able to take part in spring practice, just like Aaron Murray did as a freshman. Ramsey will red shirt this year with so much depth at quarterback, but more and more we are hearing that Ramsey could have a legitimate shot at starting next season. I have always thought that Hutson Mason would have a DJ Shockley type of season in 2014 where he would get to start in his senior season after waiting patiently for so long. If Ramsey is really good enough to challenge for the job next year it will mean that Georgia will be inexperienced at quarterback, but not void of talent.

Running back: Can you believe that only one year ago we were worried about the running back position? There are no worries in 2013. The two headed monster of Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall give Georgia the best one-two punch at running back in the nation. Do you remember how Ken Malcome got a good number of carries last year, even with Gurley and Marshall playing so well? This year, the man getting those carries will be freshman JJ Green. Green is 5-8, 171 pounds from Camden County, GA. Apparently, he has turned quite a few heads during fall practice. If he can pick up the blocking schemes that Georgia uses, Georgia will have one more body they can put in the backfield during the long SEC season.

Tight end: Georgia has two phenomenal tight ends. Arthur Lynch was named to the first team All SEC team, and Jay Rome might actually be better in pass catching situations. Georgia will have a ton of options on offense this year, but their ability to play two tight end formations that they can pass out of because of their two pass catching tight ends is one of many matchup problems that teams will face this year. One thing Georgia might need to find this season is a solid blocker at the tight end position. While both Lynch and Rome are good at blocking and great at pass catching, Georgia needs to find a third tight end that can help the offensive line in run blocking situations and jumbo packages.

Offensive Line: All five starters are back from an offensive line that got better as they went along in 2012. In fact, Georgia brings back everyone on the offensive line other than senior Austin Long who left the team for academic reasons. There might not be one big name on the offensive line, but their ability to work together as a unit could be one more addition to an offense that should be one of the best in the country. Sophomore John Theus took a lot of lumps last year as a freshman, but if he can take the next step in playing right tackle, then the line could be better than good, it could be great. One thing that is for sure, the best story surrounding this team is found on the offensive line. Kolton Houston was pretty much done at Georgia. He was literally down to his last test as he fought the NCAA to get reinstated after mistakenly being administered steroids when he was still in high school. Houson was reinstated by the NCAA on his birthday, and will now be on the field for the Dawgs for the first time in 2013. It almost doesn’t matter how Houston plays, but if he becomes a key piece on the offensive line, it will make for even a better story that already has a happy ending.

Wide Receiver: First let’s start with the names you already know. The receivers are led by junior Malcolm Mitchell. Mitchell is a home run threat each and every time he touches the ball. It was Mitchell’s run after catch last season that scored the game clinching touchdown in the Florida game. Mitchell will only be played on offense in 2013 after playing on both sides of the ball in 2012. After suffering a season ending injury in 2012, Michael Bennett will be back in 2013. Bennett has the best hands on the team and is the most consistent target for Aaron Murray. Chris Conley is also back after having a great year in 2012. Conley is most remembered for not dropping the final pass of the SEC title game, but this year, I think Conley will give us other things to remember. Amazingly, Rantavious Wooten is back for what seems like his 8^th season in Athens, but is actually on his senior season. Rhett McGowan also made some big catches in 2012 and he is back for his senior season as well.

Justin Scott-Wesley isn’t a new name, but he will see more of the field in 2013 than he has in the past. Scott-Wesley is 5-11, 201 pounds, and is quick as a hiccup. In high school Scott-Wesley was a track star that won a total of 3 state titles in the 300 meter and 100 meter dashes.

Two new names that will contribute in 2013 are Jonathan Rumph and Tramel Terry. Rumph is a 6-5 junior college transfer who will give Georgia another threat in the red zone with his size. Tramel Terry is a true freshman who was the number one recruit in the state of South Carolina in 2013. If Terry gets on the field against Clemson and South Carolina early in the season he may be extra motivated to make some noise against the schools from his home state.

Just to give you an example of what Georgia can do on offense in 2013, you could have Todd Gurley as a single set back with Mitchell, Conely, Scott-Wesley, and Bennett lined up at receiver. In this situation, you would either have only one man on Gurley if you decided to run the ball, or a line backer trying to cover one of those receivers.

Georgia will use their hurry up offense even more in 2013, allowing them to keep the same defensive players on the field when they have matchups that they find advantageous. If you want a fun exercise to do throughout the season, count the number of times teams take timeouts on defense just so they can get the proper personnel in the game.

Defense:

Defensive Line: One of the biggest parts of a 3-4 defense is the nose tackle. For the past two years, Georgia has been spoiled because they had not one, but two prototypical nose tackles. The perfect nose tackle weighs about 325 pounds, and requires two offensive linemen to stop him on each and every play. That double team is what makes the numbers work on a 3-4 defense. Five offensive linemen to block three defensive linemen will never work, even if you bring a linebacker blitzing on the play, it’s still 4 on 5 in favor of the offense. But if your nose tackle requires a double team, well then you only have one man left to block that blitzing linebacker, and when that linebacker is Jarvis Jones or Alec Ogletree, it’s not a good day to be the offensive linemen trying to pick the linebacker up. Georgia has many questions on defense in 2013, but the most basic and fundamental question is whether or not Georgia can replace Kwame Geathers and John Jenkins at the nose tackle position. Mike Thornton is 6-1 and 290 pounds, and he is listed as the starter right now at nose tackle for Georgia. His back up is a redshirt sophomore named Chris Mayes (6-4, 321). If either one of those two guys can step up and be a legitimate nose tackle, then Georgia’s defense can be better than most people are expecting. At the defensive end position, Garrison Smith is a rare bread for Georgia in 2013. He is a senior and a proven player who will contribute from day one. At the other end position, Sterling Bailey is listed ahead of Ray Drew. For Drew, his junior season might be his last chance to live up to the hype that came along with his recruitment in 2011. He might be wearing number 47, but that is as far as the comparisons go between Ray Drew and David Pollack.

Linebacker: Next to wide receiver, this is Georgia’s deepest position. Jordan Jenkins will be a superstar. It is hard to compare someone to Jarvis Jones, but if anyone deserves that comparison, it is Jenkins. By the end of last season, he was starting as a true freshman, and he was a legitimate threat opposite of Jones. The other outside linebacker spot is currently filled by James DeLoach, who at 6-3 and 265, has impressed the coaches during fall practice.

Georgia has returning experience at both inside linebacker positions as Amarlo Herrera and Ramik Wilson are both juniors who have seen significant playing time in their careers. Both starters were freshmen when Todd Grantham’s 3-4 defense was installed before the 2011 season, and both should be major contributors in the 2013.

Even though he is not listed on the two-deep depth chart to start the season, remember the name Johnny O’Neal. He is exactly what a football player is supposed to look like, and I think he might be the next star on defense for Georgia.

Secondary: The two cornerback spots are pretty set. Junior Damian Swann was a starter last season and he returns in 2013 as the leader of the secondary. Sophomore Sheldon Dawson played some last season, and seems to have solidified a spot in the starting lineup. Shaq Wiggins and Brendan Langley are both true freshman that will play significant time for Georgia this year. Both were highly recruited, but being freshmen, both will probably make their fair share of mistakes, especially early in the season.

If you aren’t nervous yet, then keep reading.

Safety could end up being a strong point of this team by the time the season ends, but right now, it has to be the biggest question mark for the Dawgs as they head to Clemson. Connor Norman is a former walk on who is now a junior, and he is listed as the starter at strong safety. That position will ultimately be filled by Josh Harvey-Clemons, but Josh will not make the trip to Clemson because of a suspension. Trey Matthews was another big time recruit for Georgia this past February, but now he is going to be the starter at free safety. The only problem is that Matthews has suffered from injury after injury going all the way back to spring football. He will most likely start against Clemson, but in truth he hasn’t practiced in more than a week, so how prepared he will be against Clemson’s potent offense will be one of the biggest things to keep an eye on in the opener.

Again, I think the defense is going to be great by the end of the year, but they have to be great in the first four games of the season unless they want to showcase their skills in the Outback Bowl.

Special Teams: Colin Barber and Marshall Morgan are both back for their sophomore season. Barber was solid at punter last season. Honestly, as good as Georgia’s offense is, I’m not sure how many pressure punting situations Barber is going to see this year.

Morgan on the other hand is a problem. Morgan missed 4 extra points in 2013 and was only 8-14 on field goals. For years, going back to Billy Bennett, Brandon Coutu, and Blair Walsh, Georgia has had strong legged kickers who could hit long field goals on a regular basis. Last year Morgan was only 3-8 on field goals of 40+ yards. On top of a shaky season in 2012, Morgan will probably miss the season’s opening game because he was arrested this summer for boating under the influence. My hope is that Morgan is replaced by a walk on that, you know, can actually make field goals. Quick, what do you call a kicker that can’t kick? Exactly.

I have heard nothing to support what I am about to say, but I would guess that with Georgia’s depth at wide receiver you will see Malcolm Mitchell much more in kick and punt return situations this year. It that does happen, it will be great for Georgia. Mitchell is a threat to score every time he gets the ball in his hands, so the more times he can touch it, the better. No official word has been given, but I would be willing to bet that Rhett McGowan will be Georgia’s dreaded fair catch expert again in 2013.

Success Will Be:

It’s amazing how quickly expectations rise. Rightly or wrongly, Georgia is expected to play in the SEC title game again, and after their performance last season, I think they need to win it. There is only one thing that Mark Richt hasn’t done in his time at Georgia, and until he does that one thing, I don’t think his job will truly be safe. The only thing worse for Georgia than not making it to the SEC and/or national title games in 2013 would becoming the first SEC school to lose a national title game to a non-SEC school. Can you imagine the pressure now on any SEC school playing in the title game? You don’t want to be the team that breaks the streak.

Prediction:

On Saturday October 29, 2011 I sat in my brother’s new house and watched the Georgia/Florida game. I told the people watching the game that day that if Georgia could manage to win that game, they would play in three consecutive SEC title games.

Mark Richt went for it on fourth down twice that day, and twice it resulted in touchdowns. Georgia beat Florida, won the East and played LSU for the SEC title.

Obviously, Georgia overcame the loss to South Carolina last season to reach the SEC title game again. This time, Georgia played very well, and almost punched their ticket to the national title game.

I believe 2013 will be the year Georgia fans have been waiting on since 1980. More and more, at every level, football is becoming a game about offense.

Wait, old people say all the time that defense wins championships. That has to be true, right?

Wrong.

Offense wins championships. Points win championships.

But, Alabama had a great defense the last two years and they won the title. Yes, but they also had great offenses. Remember, last year there were serious conversations about Alabama having the greatest offensive line in college football history. Alabama destroyed Notre Dame in the title game 42-14. Not 17-14, but 42 points.

I’m not saying you don’t have to play defense at all, but I am saying that football has changed because of the awareness that has been raised regarding player safety. You can’t hit the quarterback. You can’t hit defenseless receivers. You can’t touch a receiver after five yards. You can’t lower your helmet to hit the guy with the ball. All of these rules have been instituted over the past 5 or 10 years and they all make it harder to play defense.

Think back over this run that the SEC has had since 2006. In 2006 and 2008 Florida had a good defense, but they also had Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin. In 2007, LSU had Matt Flynn (okay that is pretty weak sauce, but keep reading), in 2009 Alabama had Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson, and Julio Jones. In 2010 Auburn had Michael Dyer and Scam Newton. In 2011, Richardson was still at Alabama and they added Eddy Lacy. And last year’s Alabama team had Lacy, Yeldon, and Amare Cooper to go along with that offensive line.

Other than Flynn, the names I just mentioned aren’t just players that had a good game or a good season, they are some of the best players in college football and it isn’t a coincidence that they have national title rings.

Georgia will have one of the best offenses in college football in 2013. They have weapons all over the field. They have an offensive line that was good last year and should be great this year. They have the best running back in the country who should be able to close out games. They have a quarterback who needs to cement his legacy. They have a coach who was an offensive genius before he was a head coach. They have every ingredient you need to make a great offense.

They won’t lead the country in scoring because in the SEC you play teams that actually play as much defense as they are allowed to play, but they will prove against those tough defenses just how good they are.

My predictions for Georgia have been right on the money the past two years. (Go back and check this blog if you don’t believe me) Here is my prediction for 2013. Georgia will be either 11-1 or 12-0 playing for the SEC title and a chance to play for the national championship again, and this time, I believe it is our time.

I have done previews on pretty much every serious contender in college football. More and more I see that while Georgia has its flaws, Georgia is no more flawed than any of the other contenders.

The team’s motto for the season is New Year. New Team. One Dream.

One dream indeed.

Go Dawgs!

College Football Preview: SEC Quickviews

Auburn: 

3-9 in 2012 (0-8 in the SEC)

Only two seasons removed from winning the national title, the Tigers laid a goose egg in SEC play in 2012 and it cost Gene Chizik his job.  Auburn hired former Chizik coordinator Gus Malzahn to be their new head coach.  It will probably take a year for Malzahn to really get going at Auburn, but they could pull an upset somewhere along the way.  Apparently former Georgia DB Nick Marshall is going to get a look at quarterback in Auburn’s new, old offensive system in an attempt to recreate Cam Newton.  No word yet about how much Cecil Newton is planning on charging. Auburn will be better in 2013 than 2012, but that isn’t saying much.  They will be right on the brink of going to a bowl game, but they better have that locked up before November 16^th, when they finish against Georgia and Alabama. 

Arkansas:

4-8 in 2012 (2-6 in the SEC)

You have to feel a little bad for Arkansas.  Two years ago they were 11-2, yes the third best team in their division, but perhaps the third best team in the nation.  Then Bobby Patrino went for a motorcycle ride, John L. Smith brought his debt and his suggestion that everyone smile to Fayetteville, now you have a lifetime Big 10 coach that wants to play hard-nosed football against the best teams in the country.  I wished I could say that better days are ahead for Hog fans, but there doesn't seem to be any reason to think that Bret Bielema is the answer.  He even brought the Big 10 form of scheduling with him.  Arkansas opens up with 4 non-conference games and then plays 8 straight SEC games with two bye weeks sprinkled in.  If they win one game in conference it will be a miracle. 

Kentucky:

2-10 in 2012 (0-8 in the SEC)

After a terrible season, Kentucky fired Joker Phillips and brought in Mark Stoops to try and build something in Lexington.  Stoops big brother, Bob, thinks that the SEC is just a hype machine and that the level of competition isn't really that much better than any other conference.  My guess is that this Christmas, Mark will be able, in great detail, to explain to his brother what being in the SEC is all about.  I think Kentucky will double their win total in 2013 from a year ago, but they won’t win more than one game in conference.  Better days are ahead though, as Stoops has begun recruiting the state of Ohio rather than fight and claw for the best players in the South.  I think they will be a bowl team in a year or two, which is big in Kentucky. 

Ole Miss:

7-6 in 2012 (3-5 in the SEC)

I really wanted to put Ole Miss in the category of teams that deserved a full preview, but they just aren't there yet. Bo Wallace returns at quarterback, and the Rebels had a fantastic recruiting class this past February. But on the field they are still a step or two below the top level of the SEC West. In a five game stretch this season, Ole Miss plays at #15 Texas, at #1 Alabama, v. #7 Texas A&M, and v. #12 LSU. Oh, and the other game in there is a road trip to Auburn, not exactly an easy game. Without an opening night win against Vanderbilt, it might be tough for the Rebels to do better than 7-5 in 2013, and that is assuming they can upset one of the four teams I mentioned above. Hugh Freeze has the Rebels going in the right direction, but he may need a little patience with this team and that schedule.

Mississippi State:

8-5 in 2012 (4-4 in the SEC)

The narrative of the 2012 State season is one that seems a lot worse than it is.  Yes they were 7-0 and ranked highly when they played Alabama last year and got destroyed, 38-7.  And yes, they went on to lose 4 of their next five after that game, but those games were against A&M, LSU, Ole Miss, and Northwestern in the bowl game.  No matter what order the wins and the losses came in, State beat the teams they were supposed to beat and lost to the teams they were supposed to lose to.  The biggest concern in Starkville should be that a few years ago they looked like a team that could get into the top of their division and compete with LSU and Alabama.  Now, they look like the second best team in their state.  For Dan Mullen, it will be losing to Ole Miss, not LSU or Alabama that will cost him his job if he can’t manage to turn the tide in his home state.  State won’t go bowling this year and Mullen will be lucky to survive.

Missouri

5-7 in 2012 (2-6 in the SEC)

Missouri thought they were going to have the season that A&M had in 2012, unfortunately for them, they only proved what many fans thought before their first season in the SEC: they don’t belong.  It wasn’t just that they lost 6 of their 8 conference games, it was how they lost those games.  Missouri had Georgia in a close game at home and then the wheels fell off in the fourth quarter, they lost by 3 touchdowns.  They lost by 3 touchdowns to South Carolina.  They lost by 31 to Alabama in a game that will be remembered because Nick Saban made one of his defensive players apologize for throwing, yes throwing, a Missouri player.  They lost by 30 to A&M to end the season.  If there was a signature moment it was a win in Knoxville in overtime, but really that isn’t as big as it sounds.  The forecast in Missouri is misery.  They will be hard pressed to match their win total in conference from last season.  No bowl for the Tigers, and they will probably give Gary Pinkle one more season before they start to get tired of being the new Kentucky of the SEC.

Tennessee

5-7 in 2012 (1-7 in the SEC)

15 years ago you wouldn't have believed that Tennessee football could have turned into the dumpster fire that it is now.  The school that brought you Peyton Manning, Tee Martin and a national title, big fat Phil Fulmer with his arm pit stains, and Rocky Top so many times your ears started bleeding have fallen on the hardest times you could ever think of.  I’m not sure Derek Dooley got a fair shake at Tennessee, but the truth is he didn't seem to be moving things forward, so he is out and in comes Butch Jones.  Tennessee’s talent level isn't at SEC standards, but he will have a chance to get off to a good start if they can upset Florida in the swamp.  Their schedule is a beast: at Oregon, at Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and at Alabama.  If they win any of those five games, then Jones will have something real to build off of this season, but I don’t think it will happen.  Their two shots at wins in conference both come on the road, at Missouri and at Kentucky, but things will be getting better in Knoxville for the first time in a long time.

Vanderbilt

9-4 in 2012 (5-3 in the SEC)

James Franklin has done an amazing job at Vanderbilt, but now he has the unenviable task of trying to take 

that last caveat out of the statement: at Vanderbilt.  2012 was a great season at Vanderbilt, but an average season for a true contender in the SEC.  Vanderbilt lost to the three teams that finished ahead of them in the SEC East.  They played South Carolina tough in the first game of the season, but they were embarrassed by Georgia in Athens 48-3 and gave up 31 points to a Florida offense that struggled all season.  There is nothing wrong with losing to those teams, but if Franklin wants to go to the next level, he will have to beat one of the big boys.  Vanderbilt has a new quarterback to break in and they go on the road to South Carolina, Florida, and A&M.  They open against Ole Miss in a game that I think will shape the season of both teams.  James Franklin has done an amazing job, but I think he has taken Vanderbilt as far as they can go, time for Franklin to try and find a job at a school where he can compete for titles.  

College Football Preview: Florida

Florida

2012 Record: 11-2 (7-1 in the SEC)                                      Lost to Louisville 33-23 in the Sugar Bowl

*Disclaimer: I will not pretend that anything written here is unbiased. I hate Florida.  That is all.

2012 Recap:

Never in my memory can I recall a team that won so many games with such a mediocre team.  Florida struggled with Bowling Green in the opening week of the season.  The 20-17 win over Texas A&M looks good now, but honestly Texas A&M wasn't Texas A&M when the Gators played them.  Florida trailed 17-10 at the half, but managed to come back and win late. 

Florida’s best game was a 14-6 win over LSU that probably set SEC football back 100 years.  There is a huge difference between a great defensive struggle and two offenses that couldn’t find the endzone if their lives depended on it.  Combined the teams managed just 20 points, 30 first downs, 437 total offensive yards, and 5 turnovers. 

In some ways, Florida’s loss to Georgia a few weeks later was just as ugly, but in other ways, it was oh so beautiful.  The Georgia loss put Florida behind the Dawgs in the race for Atlanta, and ultimately took the Gators out of the SEC title game.  Florida did manage to beat FSU 37-26 in Tallahassee to finish 11-1.

However, the Gators were simply embarrassing in their Sugar Bowl loss to Louisville.  Losing to Louisville isn’t embarrassing, but seemingly not caring about playing in a big time game like the Sugar Bowl is embarrassing. 

The Schedule:

To say that Florida will be hard pressed to match their total of 11 wins from 2012 is an understatement.  After opening against Toledo in the Swamp, Florida goes on the road to a pretty good Miami team in a game that will kick off at noon on ESPN. Funny things happen in games that kickoff at noon, especially early in the season.

Florida gets Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and FSU at home this year, but has to go on the road against LSU and South Carolina.  Not to mention that Florida has lost their edge in Jacksonville over the past two seasons, dropping two in a row to the Dawgs for the first time since the pre-Spurrier era.  The toughest stretch of the schedule will probably be playing three straight against Georgia, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina.  Those three games will determine if Florida is going to be a player in the SEC East.

Key Returner:

I’ll go with Jeff Driskel, but not for any good reasons.  Driskel was the picture of mediocrity last season.  1646 yards passing with 12 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.  Driskel threw 4 touchdowns against South Carolina in a win, but had only 93 yards passing in that game.  He threw 2 interceptions in a loss to Georgia.  Driskel never threw for more than 216 yards in a game last season and was sacked 36, that’s right, 36 times.  So why is he the key returner? Believe it or not, more will be put on Driskel in 2013.  Last year, he was given the responsibility to not lose games.  In 2013, he will have to be the reason Florida wins games 

because there isn’t much else proven on offense. 

Key Loss:

Mike Gillislee RB. You want to know why Florida won 11 games in 2012?  The first reason is defense, but you can’t win if you don’t score, and the only reason Florida scored in 2012 was Gillislee.  On an offense that ranked 118^th out of 120 teams in passing yards per game last season, Gillislee managed over 1150 yards and 10 touchdowns.  He carried the ball a whopping 246 times in 2012. Florida has 6 running backs listed on their depth chart for 2012, they combined for 568 yards last season. 

Gillislee’s loss means that Jeff Driskel will have to be the centerpiece of the offense, a scary thought.

Success will be:

Winning the SEC East.  The Gators had a great season last year, but to realistically put them at the top of the SEC is a bit of a stretch.  Winning the East would be a huge accomplishment for this team.  I don’t think they can run the table in conference, and I don’t think they can beat LSU, so they will have to hope for a win against Georgia or South Carolina, and hope the team they lose to, has more conferences losses than them.

The problem that Florida is going to have is that their fans expect a lot more coming off of last season.  When expectations are high and results fall short in the SEC there is only one thing that follows…

2013 Prediction:

Pain. I think you can put them down for three losses right out of the gate, because this team just isn't on the level of LSU, South Carolina, or Georgia.  Let’s say they split with their two in-state rivals, so I’ll go with 8-4.  I could see them beating both Miami and FSU, but I could also see them losing to a team like Vanderbilt. 

Florida is not accustomed to being a middle of the pack SEC school, and they will not allow themselves to become accustomed to it.  Florida was 7-6 in 2011.  I think they will be mediocre again in 2013.  If Florida wins anything less than 8 games in 2013 Muschamp will be gone and Florida will try to lure Louisville head coach Charlie Strong back to Gainesville where he was a defensive coordinator.  

College Football Preview: Ohio State

Ohio State

12-0 in 2012 (8-0 in the Big 10)                                    No postseason play because they are cheaters

Full Disclosure: I think the Big 10 sucks. That is all.

2012 Recap:

Quick, name the only team in major college football that didn’t lose a single game in 2012. Ok, so that one is pretty easy. Ohio State players got rings after finishing the season undefeated, but I don’t think anyone really thinks they were the best team in the country in 2012. The Buckeyes beat no teams ranked in the Top 15 in 2012, and took overtime to Purdue and Wisconsin, two teams that were not very good. They did beat Michigan by 5 points in Columbus. (Bama beat Michigan by 27 on a neutral field, but why compare apples to apples?)

The Schedule:

For anyone who hates the SEC and would like to bash the way the SEC schedules their non-conference games, I would say look at Ohio State and shut the heck up. The Buckeyes start their season with Buffalo, San Diego State, Cal, and Florida A&M. If any of those games are close then Ohio State isn’t the second best team in the country like the preseason polls would have you believe.

Wisconsin comes to Columbus in 2013, but the Buckeyes do face the daunting road test of traveling to Northwestern on October 5^th in an ABC primetime game. Appointment television. Ohio State also has to travel to Penn State and Michigan in games that the media will hype, but no one born in the last 30 years will watch unless they are being paid to do so.

Key Returner:

Quarterback Braxton Miller. Ohio State had 5085 yards of offense in 2012. Miller directly accounted for 3310 of those yards. That is 65% of Ohio State’s offense coming from a single player. I would say that is pretty key. Miller through for 15 touchdowns and ran for another 13. The question facing the Buckeyes in 2013 is whether or not Miller can improve as a pocket passer. Having a quarterback with the ability to run for over 1200 yards is great, but having a quarterback that has to run for over 1200 yards for you to win is not great. How long can he survive if he is running all over the field week after week?

Key Loss:

Ok, this is going to be a little iffy. The biggest thing Ohio State lost from their 2012 team is the fact that they are no longer on probation. Last year’s team knew from day one of training camp that nothing they did mattered, because they were ineligible for any type of postseason play. They weren’t going to win their division, their conference, or the national title. It’s like shooting free throws in practice as opposed to in a real game. Ohio State is ranked number 2 in the preseason. They will be favored in every game they play this year. They are expected to play for the National Title, and they have exactly no room for error. One loss takes them out of title contention because they play in the Big 10 which has 12 teams for now and is about to expand to 14. If they can run the table, they will be feeling the weight of the world on their shoulders when they play Michigan this year, as opposed to last year, when they had nothing in the world to lose.

Success Will Be:

Winning the National Championship. Urban Meyer won two national titles at Florida and had an undefeated team at Utah. Ohio State brought Meyer to Columbus to win National Titles, not Big 10 titles. Winning the Big 10 and getting beat by an SEC team in the National Title game would be the worst nightmare of Buckeye fans. They brought in an SEC coach so they could compete nationally again. The bar is set as high as it can be set for Ohio State, which means the only place to go is down.

2013 Prediction:

I just don’t believe in this team. Miller is good, but he is overrated because so much of the national media wants the Big 10 to be a legitimate threat to the SEC they hype him up. He would pedestrian in almost any other conference. I think Ohio State loses a game somewhere along the way. They will probably win the Big 10, which has as much prestige in my mind as being the tallest midget in a room. Even if they manage to run the table and get into the National Title game ahead of a team that they could never beat, they will get destroyed by either an SEC team or an actual good team (Clemson, Oregon, Stanford, Louisville, etc. etc. etc.) 

College Football Preview: Oregon

Oregon

12-1 in 2012 (8-1 in the PAC 12)                                      defeated Kansas State 35-17 in the Fiesta Bowl

2012 Recap:

What might have been? That is the only thing Oregon could ask itself after winning the Fiesta Bowl last year. The path to the National Title game was clear for Oregon. They were 10-0, hosting Stanford with only one more regular season game ahead of them against Oregon State. But it all went wrong. Stanford’s physicality slowed the proficient Duck offense all night long, and eventually outlasted Oregon 17-14 in overtime.

Oregon would defeat Oregon State a week later, but they would miss out on the PAC 12 title game because of the loss to division foe Stanford. Oregon was 12-1 in 2012, but the 1 loss was at the wrong time to the wrong team.

The Schedule:

Oregon must be given credit for their non-conference schedule. After a warm up game against Nicholls State, Oregon travels across the country to play Virginia. They host Tennessee the following week before closing out September with their first Pac 12 game against Cal at home. They travel to a dangerous Washington team in October and host UCLA at the end of October.

For some unknown reason, the biggest game of the Pac 12 season will be played on Thursday November 7. That is the night that Oregon travels to Stanford in a rematch of last year’s epic game.

Oregon will host Oregon State on the day after Thanksgiving to finish their season.

Key Returner:

Marcus Mariota, quarterback. For SEC fans who were thrilled last season watching the exploits of Johnny Manziel, the Pac 12 version of Johnny Football were pretty impressive as well. Mariota threw for almost 2700 yards and had 32 touchdowns compared to only 6 interceptions. He added 5 touchdowns on the ground. Mariota will be extremely important in 2013 because running back Kenyon Barner graduated, leaving a huge void in the Duck backfield. The biggest question surrounding Mariota is how effective he will be without…

Key Loss:

Chip Kelly, head coach. In four years as the head coach of Oregon, Chip Kelly lost only 3 games in the Pac 12. He lost to Stanford twice and he lost to USC once. In this day and age of college football, you don’t get much more dominant than that. Kelly led Oregon to the National title game in 2010, where the Ducks came up just short in a very close game against Auburn. Kelly’s high powered and fast paced offense has been mimicked around the country and both the high school and collegiate levels. It was that offense that made him such an attractive candidate for the NFL, so no one was really surprised when Kelly left Eugene for the Philadelphia Eagles in the off season.

Although Kelly was only head coach since 2009, his offense has been the staple of the team since he was named offensive coordinator in 2007. Kelly’s offensive coordinator, Mark Helfrich was named as Kelly’s successor, but is the student as good as the teacher. Can Oregon survive without the man that took it’s program to levels it had never seen before?

Success Will Be:

With Mariota back, Duck fans will expect no drop off in the Duck’s performance in 2013. Oregon is ranked in the top five preseason, right along with Stanford. The two best teams in the conference just happen to play in the same division, so I guess a successful season for Oregon would be to win the Pac 12 North, and go on to beat whatever mediocre team comes out of the Pac 12 South to win the conference title. If Oregon is undefeated, they should be in line to play for the National title, but if they slip up like they did in 2012, there is no guarantee that 13-1 and a Pac 12 title will be enough to get in to the title game.

2013 Prediction:

Oregon is just better than most of the teams on their schedule. They should have no problem beating Virginia and Tennessee early in the season, and while everyone is looking towards the Stanford game, I think Oregon will slip up a bit sooner than that when they have to go play at Washington on October 12^th. Even a loss at Washington won’t completely put Oregon out of the title race, but a second consecutive loss to Stanford will. I just think Stanford is the more physical team and I think they are a bad match up for Oregon’s style of offense. Oregon will go 10-2 in 2013. Not a bad year, but a considerable step back from the Chip Kelly era.

College Football Preview: Stanford

Stanford

12-2 in 2012 (8-1 in the Pac 12)                                            defeated Wisconsin 20-14 in the Rose Bowl

2012 Recap:

Stanford was as hot as any team in the country at the end of the 2012 season. Stanford won 8 straight games to finish the 2012 season, including wins over #11 Oregon State, #2 Oregon, #17 UCLA and a second win over #16 UCLA in the Pac 12 title game. Those four games came in four consecutive weeks.

Stanford began their season by beating then #2 USC at home only to fall to Washington on a Thursday night after a bye week. Stanford needed overtime to beat Arizona the following week, and lost a controversial game to Notre Dame a week after that.

The early season struggles might have cost Stanford a shot at a National title in 2012, but it helped them find their quarterback for 2013 and beyond. Kevin Hogan was the starting quarterback for the run that finished the season and he will be back for his junior season in 2013.

The Schedule:

There is no reason that Stanford shouldn’t be 6-0 on October 19^th when they host UCLA, who they beat twice last year. The only game before UCLA that could cause any problems would be Washington, but they get to play the Huskies at home in 2013.

Starting with the UCLA game, Stanford plays 5 teams ranked in the preseason top 25 in a 6 game stretch. They do get a bye week before hosting Oregon on a Thursday night. Stanford is known for their physical nature, but they will have to prove just how tough they are playing so many good teams in such a short time frame. They finish their season by hosting Notre Dame on November 30.

Key Returner:

Quarterback Kevin Hogan. Hogan was steady down the stretch in big game after big game in 2012. Whether Hogan can take the next step as a quarterback in 2013 will be the defining factor of Stanford’s season. The Cardinal lose their leading rusher from 2012 Stepfan Taylor and their leading receiver Zach Ertz.  All eyes will be on Hogan to see if he was just a game manager who happened to be the quarterback of a good team last year, or if he is the type of player that can make people around him better.

Key Loss:

Tie, Stepfan Taylor and Zach Ertz. The strength of Stanford’s teams over the past few years has been their physicality in a league that lacks physical play. Stanford dominates at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and unlike other Pac 12 teams, they love to run the ball. Stepfan Taylor ran for more than 1500 yards in 2012, and anyone can tell you that a young quarterback’s best friend is a good tight end like Zach Ertz. Without these two guys, it will be interesting to see if Stanford can play the type of offense they like to play. I don’t think they have the type of team that can come from behind to win a lot of games, but even if they have a lead, they might not be able to control the clock the way they did in 2012 with Taylor.

Success Will Be:

Stanford has played in 3 consecutive BCS games, so their expectations coming into 2013 are pretty clear. Success for Stanford will be returning to the Rose Bowl, either on January 1^st in the Rose Bowl game, or on January 6 in the National title game.

2013 Prediction:

I really like Stanford. I like the way they play. I like the attitude they seem to have. But I think they lost too much on offense with an inexperienced quarterback to run the table. The schedule is brutal in the second half of the season, and I think it is asking too much to repeat what they did at the end of last year. I still believe they will win the Pac 12, which will mean another birth in the Rose Bowl, their fourth consecutive BCS game, but they will lose a game or two along the way to take them out of the National title picture.

College Football Preview: Clemson

Clemson

11-2 in 2012 (7-1 in the ACC)                                                        defeated LSU in the Chick-fil-A Bowl

2012 Recap:

It’s hard to say that an 11-2 season would be a disappointment, but that is exactly what Clemson fans would say about 2012. The Tigers lost to FSU which kept them out of the ACC title game, and ultimately the BCS. The Tigers also lost to South Carolina for the fourth consecutive season. On the positive side, Clemson book-ended their season with wins over two SEC teams, Auburn and LSU.

The LSU game was the best game of the bowl season, and it really put a positive spin on a season that had no true bright spot until the game winning field goal went through the uprights at the Georgia Dome.

The Schedule:

It doesn't get any bigger than Clemson’s opening game of the 2013 season. The Clemson/Georgia rivalry is one that means a lot to each fan base, but the 2013 edition will mean even more to the team that survives. College Gameday will be on hand for the top 10 match up, just to add to the excitement of a night game in 

Death Valley.

After the Georgia game, Clemson travels to NC State where they lost in 2011. The Tigers also have to travel to the Carrier Dome to play new ACC member Syracuse. Last season, Syracuse managed to upset Louisville, so that game might not be as easy as some might think. Clemson does host FSU and Georgia Tech this season, but they finish their schedule by heading to Columbia to take on South Carolina.

Key Returner:

Quarterback Tajh Boyd. Boyd has been incredibly consistent in his two seasons as the starting quarterback for Clemson. In 2011 Boyd through for 33 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, while being sacked 31 times. In 2012 Boyd through for 36 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, while being sacked, wait for it, 31 times. Boyd threw for 3896 yards in 2012, after throwing for 3828 yards in 2011. Boyd played well in the lost to FSU last season, but struggled against South Carolina, throwing for only 183 yards and completing less than 50% of his passes for the only time last season. Despite stereotypes, Boyd isn't much of a runner, but he does use his feet exceptionally well to keep plays going. Boyd returning to the Tigers makes them legitimate national title contenders as well as the favorite in the ACC.

Key Loss:

Wide Receiver DeAndre Hopkins. When people think about Clemson wide receivers most people think about Sammy Watkins, and for good reason. Watkins had a fantastic freshmen season with over 1200 yards receiving and 12 touchdowns in 2011, but last year, Watkins was plagued by injuries all season. Hopkins stepped up in a huge way last year. Hopkins had 82 receptions for 1405 yards and 18, yes 18 touchdowns. With Hopkins gone this season, the pressure will be back on Watkins to produce. Clemson is never void of talent at the skill positions, but until another receiver steps up, Watkins will be double covered on every play. Hopkins leaves a huge void for the Clemson offense that will need to be just as explosive as it has been in the past if Clemson is going to have the type of season their fans are expecting.

Success Will Be:

Winning the ACC title and a BCS bowl game. Clemson has all the talent they need to win the ACC, but if they lose even one game, they will be out of the running for the national title. If they win the ACC, it will be important for the program to put on a better display than they did a couple of years ago against West Virginia. Nationally all anyone remembers about Clemson in that Orange Bowl is that West Virginia put up 70 points. 70. As in 10 touchdowns. 70.

2013 Prediction:

Clemson is legit. Their offense should be as good as any in the country and their defense should get even better in the second year under Defensive Coordinator Brent Venables. If Clemson can beat Georgia to open the season, I think they will be undefeated when they go to Columbia to take on South Carolina. It’s hard for me to see them beating both Georgia and South Carolina, so I’ll go with Clemson being 11-1 in the regular season and winning the ACC. For Clemson’s sake, I hope they get a top tier opponent in the Orange Bowl so they have a chance to redeem themselves. Beating Northern Illinois will impress no one.

College Football Preview: LSU

LSU

10-3 in 2012 (6-2 in the SEC)                                                        lost to Clemson in the Chick-fil-A Bowl

2012 Recap:

It looked like another year that would come down to the Alabama game for LSU.  The Tigers were 5-0 heading to The Swamp to take on a Florida team that had looked less than impressive early in the season. LSU fell to the “mighty” Gators only to rebound a week later and beat a South Carolina team that had destroyed Georgia the week before. They followed that win up by beating A&M in College Station, before losing to Alabama at home after leading late in the fourth quarter.

Got all that?

Oh yeah, then they lost to Clemson on a last second field goal in the Chick-fil-A Bowl.

After the season, it got worse for the Tigers. 10 Juniors left school early to enter the NFL draft, and if you include former Heisman finalist Tyron Mathieu, it would have been 11.

The Schedule:

Not sure what Les Miles did to the people that make the SEC schedules, but it must have been something pretty bad. The Tigers draw Georgia from the East this year, and they have to go to Athens one week after playing Auburn. LSU has their yearly match up with Florida at home sandwiched between games on the road against both Mississippi schools. The only break I can see in the schedule is that they get a bye week before both Alabama and A&M, but those games are back to back on the schedule, so LSU only plays two games between October 27^th and November 28^th.

Oh yeah, and LSU opens with TCU in the “Jerry Dome” in Dallas on August 31^st. Make that 5 games out of 12 played against teams ranked in the preseason top 20.

To recap, there are five SEC schools ranked in the Top 10 of the preseason poll, and LSU plays four of them. They also go on the road to play the two teams that battled for the SEC title in 2012.

Do you think people are punishing the Tigers for misspelling Geaux all of these years? At least that would 

make sense.

Key Returner:

You would think that an elite SEC school returning their starting quarterback would make it easy to pick a key returner, but when that quarterback is Zach Mettenberger, life isn't that simple. I’ll go with running back Jeremy Hill as the key returner for the Tigers, because Les Miles said as much when he allowed the team to vote on Hill’s status with the team after an off-field altercation this summer. The team (big surprise) voted to allow Hill to return to the field this fall, and I’m sure it had nothing to do with the 12 touchdowns Hill scored last year. Since Hill is going to be on the field, you can expect him to get a heavy workload this year. For the Tigers to be successful, Hill and LSU’s other running backs will have to take pressure off Mettenberger, who is a good quarterback, but not capable of winning games by himself. A solid running game will open up play action passing opportunities for Mettenberger, who has a big arm and throws the deep ball as well as anyone in the conference.

Key Loss:

Outside Linebacker Barkevious Mingo. Besides having one of the best names in football, Mingo is also a heck of a player. He was one of the 10 juniors to leave LSU early following the 2012 season, and apparently he made the right choice because the Cleveland Browns took Mingo with the 6^th overall pick in April’s draft. Mingo was a pure pass rusher who was just starting to live up to his potential. Losing a player like him early leaves a huge void on the LSU defense. LSU has had as much talent on defense over the past five years as anyone in the country, but at some point, you would think that the talent level is going to fall off at least a little bit. LSU’s defense is going to be counted on heavily this year as they are the only team in the league that will have the not so enviable task of facing Aaron Murray, Johnny Manziel, and AJ McCarron. Those three men will be very happy they don’t have to account for Mr. Mingo.

Success Will Be:

Tiger fans expect to win championships, but with this schedule, I just don’t think that is realistic.  10-2 would mean that you split the four conference games against top teams, beat TCU, and didn’t lose to any of the mid-level SEC schools. I think that would be pretty successful, but then again, I’ve never used the word Geaux until today, so how rational could I really be?

2013 Prediction:

LSU has won at least ten games each season since 2009, and has only lost four games over the past two seasons. I believe that LSU will lose 3 games this season alone. I just don’t see how they can compete with the top of the SEC this year, and they don’t catch any breaks with their schedule. I wouldn't be surprised to see LSU knock off one of the top teams in the league, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see the Tigers lose to one of the Mississippi schools. LSU will be very good in a great conference which means 9-3 isn't really that bad, but it will be a step back for one of the premiere programs in the nation.

College Football Preview: South Carolina

South Carolina

11-2 in 2012 (6-2 in the SEC)                                                         beat Michigan 33-28 in Outback Bowl

2012 Season Recap

For the second year in a row South Carolina beat Georgia but failed to reach the SEC title game.  After destroying the Dawgs in Columbus 35-7, the Gamecocks lost the next two games to LSU and Florida to miss out on a division title.  As disappointed as they might have been, Carolina won 11 games for just the second time in the history of the school.  They beat Clemson for the fourth consecutive year, and had the highlight of the bowl season with Jadeveon Clowney’s hit against Michigan.  Even though Spurrier has complained about his schedule versus Georgia’s schedule the past two seasons, in reality, South Carolina has never experienced the type of success they have had over the past three seasons, so they might need to sit back and enjoy it a little bit, instead of thinking about what they haven’t achieved.

The Schedule:

Well I guess if you complain enough, and your name is Steve Spurrier, you get what you want.  South Carolina has as easy of a schedule in 2013 as you can have in the SEC.  They open at home against North Carolina on a Thursday night, so they will have an extra two days to prepare for the SEC East title game in Athens against Georgia on September 7^th.  They play road games at Arkansas, Tennessee, and Missouri in the month on October, but they will be favored in all of those games.  They get the Gators at home on November 16^th.  It is hard to find two conference losses on Carolina’s schedule if they beat Georgia, so it would seem that the Old Ball Coach got his wish.  Now all he has to do is beat Georgia for the fourth consecutive time, something Carolina has never done before.  The easy schedule in 2013 will be the last for South Carolina.  In 2014, Texas A&M will become Carolina’s annual crossover game and that will be their first game of the 2014 season.

Key Returner:

Hmmm let’s see, it’s tough, but yes I will go with Jadeveon Clowney, the best player in the conference.  This time next year, Clowney will be getting ready to start his first NFL season with whichever team owns the first pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, but this year, he is still at South Carolina getting ready to try and meet expectations that are as high as any defensive player has faced since Lawrence Taylor.  Clowney has done nothing but make plays since his freshman season and he is a legitimate contender for the Heisman trophy.  If South Carolina is going to make it to the SEC title game it will be because of Clowney and the defense, not the offense.  Clowney made some remarks at SEC Media Days about quarterback being scared of him, well if they aren't then they are really dumb.  It will be interesting to see if Clowney can put up the same type of number this year as he has in the past, when most teams will be double teaming him on every play and chipping him with a back or a tight end.  Clowney set a personal goal for himself this season of 20 sacks, I wouldn't bet against him. 

Key Loss:

Marcus Lattimore.  Lattimore, despite his injuries, changed South Carolina.  His three seasons in Columbia are the best three seasons they have ever had.  They went to their first SEC title game in 2010 on his back.  They beat Georgia three straight years mostly on his back, and they even managed to overcome losing him on the field, by using him as inspiration.  Lattimore is gone now, so that leaves a huge void in the South Carolina backfield.  The “experts” at ESPN say that Carolina has some good backs for 2013, and that they will always be able to run the ball at South Carolina.  I think the “experts” are idiots.  South Carolina became a running team on September 11, 2010 when a freshman named Marcus Lattimore ran the ball down after down, right at the Georgia defense.  He had 37 carries for 182 yards and 2 touchdowns that day.  South Carolina became a running team when Lattimore showed up.  Without him, it will be interesting to see if they have to depend on Connor Shaw’s arm to win games.

Success will be:

There is no doubt that Spurrier has raised the bar in Columbia.  Success for South Carolina will be winning the SEC and being in the conversation for the National Title.  Anything less than an appearance in the SEC title game would have to be considered a pretty big disappointment given their schedule.  As with many teams in the south, they are also expected to beat their instate rival.  No South Carolina season can be a true success without a victory over Clemson.  To review, South Carolina needs to win the SEC and beat Clemson, or to put it another way, South Carolina needs to have the greatest season in the history of the program.  No pressure.

2013 Prediction:

South Carolina has been 1 loss short of their goal for the past two seasons, and I think they will be 1 loss short again in 2013.  Because the game is in Athens I think Georgia will beat South Carolina.  I just don’t think Carolina’s offense can score enough to beat Georgia, and I don’t think Carolina’s defense can hold Georgia’s offense down for four quarters.  So Carolina will be 1-1 after two games and they will be 10-1 when they face Clemson.  South Carolina has had Clemson's number the past four years, so I'm guessing this year's game will swing the other way. South Carolina goes 10-2, and Gamecock fans should remember who they root for, and be very glad to be 10-2.

College Football Preview: Texas A&M

Texas A&M

2012 Record: 11-2 (6-2)                                                  def Oklahoma in Cotton Bowl:  41-13

2012 Recap:

You would have to forgive Aggie Nation for believing things could have been different last season if not for a hurricane.  A&M was supposed to open their first season as a member of the SEC against Louisiana Tech on August 30, but hurricane Isaac caused the game to be delayed until October 13^th, a scheduled bye week. 

The postponement meant that A&M opened their season at home against Florida in their first SEC game.  A&M played well, but came up short against the Gators losing 20-17.  When the Louisiana Tech game was rescheduled, A&M had to hold on to win the game in a shoot out 59-57.  Instead of having their scheduled bye week before the LSU game, the Aggies played host to the Tigers with no extra rest and again came up just short, 24-19. 

We all know that A&M went on to beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa later in the season on their way to a huge victory over former Big 12 foe, Oklahoma.  Not a bad first season in the nation’s premiere conference. 

Without the postponement in week 1, you never know what could have been for the 2012 Aggies.

The Schedule:

A&M drew a pretty favorable conference schedule in 2013.  The Aggies will play Vanderbilt out of the SEC East as well as their “natural rival” Missouri.  After winning in Tuscaloosa last season, the Aggies host the Tide in one of the most anticipated games of the season in early September. Their toughest road games come against Ole Miss and LSU.  Their non-conference schedule features almost every college football team from the state of Texas, other than the University of Texas.  The Aggies will host Rice, Sam Houston State, SMU, and UTEP giving them 8 home games in 2013.  (Insert joke about SEC scheduling here)

Key Returner:

Johnny Manziel: This is what happens when you write a preview too early. I had a nice breakdown of Manziel from last year and what we might see in 2013, but that was before Johnny complained about signing autographs in ESPN the Magazine only to find out that he might have accepted money for signing autographs.  Manziel will be the biggest returner for any team in the country, if he returns.  The cloud of an NCAA investigation is hanging over A&M, and there is no timetable for a decision from the NCAA. Some believe that Manziel will be benched by A&M until he is cleared by the NCAA for fear of having to vacate wins if he plays.

On the field, if he makes it back to the field, Manziel will have the daunting task of repeating what can only be described as the greatest freshman season in college football since Herschel Walker in 1980.  Manziel broke record after record in 2012.  In 2013, Manziel might have to be better, but not put up the same type of numbers he did last year for the Aggies to meet expectations.  A&M will be a Top 10 team in the preseason and many Aggie fans believe that the A&M game against Alabama in early September is a defacto national title game. 

It seems impossible to think that Manziel can top his 2012 season, but if he can manage to lead A&M to the SEC title game, then he might have a chance.  The biggest thing standing in the way, or not standing in the way, as it were is ….

Key Loss:

Luke Joeckel: The Aggies will have to figure out how to protect their prized possession without the help of Joeckel who was the number two pick in the NFL Draft.  Joeckel won the Outland trophy in 2012 as the nation’s top lineman.  Obviously, the Aggies will put someone at left tackle this fall, but with Manziel wanting to be more of a pocket passer, it might be hard for him to stay in the pocket with a new anchor on the offensive line.  The Aggies will have two weeks to figure out how to protect Manziel before Nick Saban brings his Alabama defense to Kyle Field on September 14^th. 

Success will be:

Winning the SEC and playing for a national title.  Fair or not, this is what is expected of the Aggies in 2013.  It only took one year for Aggie Nation to adopt the ridiculously high standards of the SEC.  With the bar set so high, success is almost unattainable. 

2013 Prediction:

How can you predict the 2013 season for A&M without knowing if Manziel is going to be on the field? Well there are two things that can happen, so we will predict both!

If Manziel plays: A&M will have a great season, but they won’t beat Alabama and they won’t play for the SEC title, and they won’t win the National Title, so A&M fans will feel like they just went 2-10. As good as Johnny is, football is the ultimate team sport, and as a team, A&M doesn't have the talent to compete in the SEC yet. No one is unstoppable. Teams will slow Manziel down, and when they do, what will A&M be able to do? I don’t know the answer to that question, and I’m not sure Kevin Sumlin does either. Nothing wrong about going 10-2 in the SEC, but calling A&M a title contender is just too premature.

If Manziel doesn’t play: A&M will have a lost season. Making a bowl game will be difficult without Manziel because so much of what they do is centered on him. Not to mention the mental toll it would take on the team to lose their Heisman Trophy winning quarterback just before the season begins.

So if you are an A&M fan, you are going to be disappointed either way. It remains to be seen how disappointed you will be.

College Football Preview: Alabama

Alabama

2012 Record:  13-1 (7-1 in the SEC)                                   def Notre Dame 42-14 in National Title Game

2012 Recap:

What can you say about Bama’s 2012 season other than wow.  Nick Saban managed to lose a game at home in the SEC for the second consecutive year and still win the National Championship.  The Tide’s lone loss came at home to Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M. 

Bama had the nation’s top defense in points allowed to go along with two running backs that went for over 1000 yards last season.

After the loss to A&M, Alabama got back in the title picture when Oregon lost to Stanford.  Bama had their own scare in the SEC title game, but survived late against Georgia to clinch their spot in the title game.

In Miami, the Tide rolled against Notre Dame in a blowout 42-14.  The sad part of the score is that the game was never really that close.  Notre Dame was simply outclassed in every area of the game.

For the third time in 4 seasons, Alabama was at the top of the college football world.

The Schedule:

What do you give the team that has everything? Well if you are the two time defending national champions, apparently the SEC gives you what can only be described as an amazingly easy schedule. 

When you look at Bama’s schedule in 2013, it starts and begins with a trip to College Station, Texas on September 14.  After opening against Virginia Tech in the Georgia Dome on August 31^st, and then a bye week, the Tide roll into College Station for the rematch of last season’s upset against Texas A&M. 

The Aggies believe that this game will put them on track for the National Title, but the Tide have revenge on their minds.

After the A&M game, there’s seemingly not much trouble on Bama’s schedule.  They play Ole Miss at home in late September, and draw Kentucky from the East.  They also play Tennessee, Arkansas, and LSU at home, but as we have seen the last few years, Bama can lose at home.  Their most difficult road game outside of the trip to College Station will be against Mississippi State on November 16^th. 

Not only does Bama catch a break by drawing Kentucky out of the East as opposed to one of the big boys, they get bye weeks before both Texas A&M and LSU. 

Key Returner:

So many good players return for Alabama.  You could go with AJ McCarron who has two national titles to his name and could go down as one of the greatest quarterbacks in college football history with another title this season.  You could go with TJ Yeldon who rushed for 1100 yards last season and 12 touchdowns.  You could even say Cyrus Kouandjio who might be the best offensive linemen in college football.  You could go with any of those guys and a few others, but you would be lying to yourself.

The key returner for Alabama is Nick Saban.  Never, in the history of college football has one coach meant so much to winning.  Saban wins the SEC in his second season at LSU in 2001 beating Tennessee in the title game, which knocked them out of the National Championship game.  In 2003, Saban wins the National Title with LSU, their first since 1958.  In 2007, he goes to Alabama and just one year later he has the Tide playing Florida in the SEC title game for a chance to play for the National Title.  Saban and the Tide beat Florida a year later to win the SEC, and then beat Texas to win the National title.  In 2011 and 2012, Saban was able to overcome home losses in conference to win National Titles.  Saban has 4 National Titles in 10 years of coaching in America’s best conference.

As long as Saban is at Alabama, the Tide will be in the mix for the National Title, but be honest, don’t you want to see him go to Vanderbilt and try to win there?

Key Loss:

I’ll go with Eddy Lacy and here’s why.  Despite the fact that AJ McCarron is a very good quarterback and Amare Cooper is a very good wide receiver, the Tide have won their national titles with the running game.  Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson, and then Eddy Lacy.  Now Lacy is gone and TJ Yeldon is the number one guy.  Alabama has stockpiled running backs through the past few recruiting cycles, but their hit rate on running backs is pretty much unsustainable.  At some point, they are going to miss with one of these big recruits, and with an offense that is centered on the running game, they might not have the luxury of having a drop off at running back and still winning.  Just look at the SEC title game last season, if Lacy doesn't go absolutely crazy in the third quarter of that game, just when Georgia had returned a blocked kick for a touchdown, then Bama might not win that game. 

As good as McCarron is, it has always taken two backs for Bama to win.  You know you have Yeldon, but you don’t know what you have behind him, and that is a big question mark.

Success will be:

The bar could not be set any higher than it is at Alabama.  Not only are the Tide expected to win the National Title again in 2013, a loss, any loss, even a loss to a Top 10 team on the road (See Texas A&M on September 14^th) will be seen as a huge upset.  Alabama is the preseason number one and it was pretty close to being unanimous, but being number one at the end of the season is the only thing that will satisfy the new most annoying fan base in sports.  Move over Yankee fans, make room, and a lot of room, for Tide Nation.

2013 Prediction:

Predicting a team to go undefeated in the SEC, win the SEC title game, and then win the National Title is hard to do.  I wouldn't be shocked if Bama lost a game this season, maybe even to Ole Miss in September, but I can make one guarantee that I will stand by from now until the day of the game: there is no way Alabama is going to lose to Texas A&M.  I don’t know what the line will be, but I’ll lay the points and take the Tide straight up.  In fact, I don’t think it is going to be close, at least 2 touchdowns. 

The problem Alabama has in 2013 is that history is against them.  Never, in the modern history of college football (since 1950) has a team won three straight National Titles.  Alabama is really good and Saban is the best coach in America, but it takes more than talent to win a title, it takes a bit of luck. Luck like getting a rematch with LSU in 2011.  Luck like having just enough teams lose in front of them to get back in the title picture last season.  Luck like having the starting quarterback of the opposing team get knocked out of the National Title game.  The talent is still there, but you would have to think that the luck has to be running out.  The boldest prediction I can make is that Alabama will NOT win a third consecutive National Title.