North Carolina Preview

It has been a long, long offseason. We have seen a great coach leave town. We have seen a beloved Dawg return home to unite the Bulldog Nation. We have seen over 100K turn out for 93K Day. We have seen a top 10 recruiting class brought in by a new coaching staff, something that has not been done in the modern SEC. We have seen the return of our star running back, and the injury to our other star running back. We have had players dismissed from the team. We have had transfers late into fall practice. We have heard about quarterback battles until we are ready to jump off the 600 level of Sanford Stadium. We have speculated, prognosticated, and analyzed every single aspect of the coming season, and I am happy to say that we are finally ready to stop all the noise and just play some football!

Here, finally, is your preview of the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game: Georgia v. North Carolina

These early season matchups between two good teams are such a coin flip. Anyone who tells you with any degree of certainty what will happen on Saturday is either a fool or a troll.

Georgia has a completely new coaching staff. North Carolina lost a ton off of their offense from last season. North Carolina brings back a lot on defense, but their defense was pretty bad in 2015, so that might not be a good thing. Georgia has a senior quarterback that no one actually wants to watch play quarterback tonight. North Carolina has a great running back that didn’t show up in the big games last year. Georgia has a running back coming off a knee injury, and another running back who may or may not actually play on Saturday.

So, as I begin this preview let me start by simply saying, I’m just guessing here people.

With that said, here is what I think is going to happen on Saturday.

Georgia is going to run the ball all over North Carolina. While there has been a lot of talk surrounding the quarterback position, if Nick Chubb is healthy and ready to be Nick Chubb tonight against a soft North Carolina defense, it won’t matter who is at quarterback. I could take a snap and hand the ball off.

First bold prediction of the year: Georgia will run for more than 300 yards on Saturday, with Chubb going north of 150. I think he could break 200, but if Georgia gets a lead, they may rest him late in the game. I think Sony will get about 10 carries, but the breakout star of the game will be freshman running back Elijah Holyfield who will go for more than 100 yards.

North Carolina allowed nearly 1300 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns in their last three games in 2015. They averaged allowing 247 yards rushing for the season and opposing running backs averaged 5.1 yards per carry.

The common thing you will hear from talking heads is that North Carolina is going to stack the box and make either Grayson Lambert or Jacob Eason beat them, but they can’t stop the run. You don’t think they stacked the box in those last three games last season? You can put as many bad players as you want near the line of scrimmage and it won’t change anything.

Unless North Carolina has improved exponentially, they won’t be able to stop Georgia’s running game, which means Georgia will be able to use either quarterback off of play action, giving them plenty of time to make decisions and one on one coverage to throw into.

I was obviously surprised to hear that Georgia was going to start Lambert. I think we should all trust in Kirby until he gives us a reason not to, but these are the types of decisions that coordinators don’t have to make, but ultimately define head coaches. If Lambert plays terribly, then you go to Eason who brings the team back but just short of victory, Kirby looks bad. If Lambert plays well, then you insert Eason so he can get some reps, Eason throws a pick, then Lambert comes back and plays poorly, and Georgia loses, Kirby looks bad. Kirby could also look like a genius if Georgia wins, Lambert is solid, you get Eason some reps, and we are talking about a cupcake home game against Nicholls State next Saturday.

My biggest concern with starting Lambert is that when Eason gets in the game, he is going to force the issue trying to “Wow” the coaching staff and prove that he should be the starter. This will most likely lead to him making some bad decisions, which will lead to more Grayson Lambert, and I was done with Grayson Lambert last year.

I have an expression I use sometimes at work, “missing in the right direction.” Jacob Eason struggling on the job and getting better throughout the season is building towards something. Any mistake Lambert makes is just a waste, because everyone knows Eason is going to be the starter sooner rather than later, so what are we waiting for? Does Georgia have to have a season  like we did in 2006 when the team lost to Tennessee and Vanderbilt in back to back weeks, before Matt Stafford became the starter? Let’s hope not.

On the other side of the ball, North Carolina should be effective to a certain extent running the ball against Georgia. I think Georgia’s defense is going to be a great strength for this team, but I think it’s going to take some time for everyone to gel. Carolina will feature running back Elijah Hood who ran for over 100 yards 6 times in 2015. To hear local radio guys in Athens tell it, new Carolina quarterback Mitch Trubisky could be the second coming of Tim Tebow, but in reality, he is going to take some time to come into his own.

Kirby has emphasized creating turnovers defensively and I think Dominick Sanders will continue his ball-hawking ways with an interception at some point in the game, and when he gets a pick he is always looking to score.

The biggest question mark for the Dawgs is going to be the special teams. Kirby is on record as saying that special teams scare the heck out of him right now, because he doesn’t have any proven guys kicking or punting. Don’t be surprised to see Georgia miss a field goal or two, because this is going to be an issue all season long.

At the end of the day, Georgia is more talented than North Carolina. I would expect a close game in the first half, with Georgia’s defense making some good adjustments in the second half and the running game of the Dawgs’ wearing down the Carolina defense in the fourth quarter. It might not be the prettiest game Georgia plays this year, but it will be a win, and that is all that matters.

Georgia 27    North Carolina 16

Enjoy the greatest opening weekend of college football in history, and just remember, it will be over before you know it, so enjoy it while you can.

Glory, Glory