Georgia’s season continues today at high noon in Oxford,
Mississippi as the Dawgs take on the Rebels in what can only be described as a
game where we are going to get a lot of questions answered.
A poet person might say that this season has been A Tale of
Two Teams. In Athens, it has been the best of times as Georgia has managed a
3-0 start despite not playing a brand of football that has been pleasing to the
eye or the blood pressure of anyone in the Bulldog Nation. In Oxford, it has
been the worst of times, as Ole Miss enters this game with a 1-2 record after
blowing 20+ point leads to both Florida State and Alabama in the first three
weeks of the season.
Let me start by saying that it is completely ridiculous that
this game is being played at noon, eastern and 11 am local time. CBS decided to
take Florida and Tennessee, which makes sense, I guess. However, with all the
television options the SEC has now, there is no reason this game couldn’t have had
a later kickoff. My indignation is totally selfish, as I will be watching the
game on delay after I get off work, so please don’t text me any results and
ruin my day.
Believe it or not, this game is going to be all about Ole Miss.
They are the more experienced, battle tested, and talented team coming into
this game. They are at home. They have already played in two very big games
this season. For a team that had hopes of winning the SEC and perhaps making
the playoff, their entire season is on the line today. A 1-3 September would be
near a tragedy for Ole Miss fans, not to mention the players and coaches.
I have gone back and forth on this game all week. I could
see Ole Miss coming out, fired up, getting out to a two touchdown lead, and
blowing Georgia away. The Rebels have the talent to do that.
I could see Ole Miss coming out, getting a lead, Georgia making
a comeback, and the Rebels folding like a cheap lawn chair because that is what
they have done against Florida State and Alabama.
I could see Ole Miss coming out flat and lethargic knowing
their dreams for the season are all but unattainable and playing a sloppy game
that leads to Georgia winning by 10.
I could see a lot of things happening, but in the end, no
matter how we get there, I think Georgia is going to pick up their first loss
of the season today in Oxford.
I can’t see a Hugh Freeze team coming out flat and laying an
egg today at home. He is going to have his players fired up, so the early part
of the game is going to be important. I think Ole Miss will come out of the
gate like a cat with its tail on fire. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the
Rebels get a two touchdown lead before half time. Then I think Georgia will get
back into the game, the crowd is going to think, “here we go again,” and the
players are going to get tight. The difference in the game will end up being
Chad Kelly’s ability to scramble and make a big play with his legs. As good as
Kelly is with his arm, and he may be the best in the conference, the X-factor
is his ability to run the ball. I think Kelly makes a big play with his legs
late in the game and Ole Miss wins a one possession game.
Now I need all the Georgia fans to take a deep breath. I am
going to ask you a question, and I want you to be honest with your answer, and
please, answer with your head, and not your heart.
Do you think Georgia is good enough to go undefeated and win
the national title this season?
Ok, unless you are completely mental, the answer to that
question is no. Georgia isn’t going to win the national title this year and at
some point, they are going to lose, at least, one game.
Guys, Ole Miss is the best team left on Georgia’s schedule
and this is a road game in the SEC. There is absolutely no shame in losing this
game, and even if Georgia loses this game, they can still win the SEC East,
which is probably the ceiling for Georgia this year.
Most logical Georgia fans would have taken a 10-2 season in
Kirby’s first year, but when its game week, no one is ever comfortable with the
idea of losing a game. So how can you be ok with a team going 10-2, but never
be ok with a team losing a game?
The answer is of course that the word fan comes from the
word fanatic, so logic can pretty much be thrown out the window. Before and
after the season most fans are capable of some level of perspective, which
allows for a more logical assessment of the season. There are going to be
people who read this blog who actually believe Georgia can win the national
title this year. There are going to be people who read this blog who will post negative
things about Kirby Smart or Jacob Eason if Georgia loses today. Thank you for
taking the time to read the blog, but you are an idiot if you do any of those
things.
No matter what happens today, Georgia fans have a ton of
reasons to be encouraged.
First and foremost, we have found our quarterback. Eason won
the job last Saturday night, and now everyone on the team knows he is the man
for the rest of the season and beyond. Eason was magnificent on third down
throughout the Missouri game. He kept drive after drive going when the running
game couldn’t do anything. The fourth down play to score the final touchdown
reminded me a lot of the David Greene pass to Jasper Sanks in Knoxville in 2001
on the “Hob-nail boot” play. Green was a freshman playing in Mark Richt’s first
season on the road in the SEC.
Another reason for optimism is that Georgia’s defense seems
to have picked up where they left off last season, which means they are pretty
stinking good. I was encouraged by the half-time adjustments made by the
defensive coaches against Missouri. The Tiger’s offense looked completely
different from the first half to the second half, and you should give Georgia’s
defense the credit. You see, it’s all about how you say it. If you say Drew
Lock threw three interceptions in the second half, then it seems Georgia was
the beneficiary of bad quarterback play from their opponent. If you say Georgia
forced three crucial turnovers in the second half, then all of a sudden the
defense won the game.
For me, the most encouraging thing I have seen in the first
three weeks of the season is a 180 degree change in coaching philosophy
surrounding Georgia, especially on the offensive side of the ball. To set this
up, please permit me a moment to look back at the previous coaching staff.
Too many times under Richt, Georgia seemed to have no “Plan
B” if “Plan A” didn’t work. I’m thinking of games against Tennessee and South
Carolina in 2007. Against Florida in 2008 and 2009. Against Alabama in 2008 and
2015. Against South Carolina in 2012.
In all of those games, Georgia failed to run the ball early,
and Georgia lost the game. In most of those games, Georgia got blown out. The
stat under Richt was dramatic. Georgia only lost four times under Richt when we
had a running back run for over 100 yards. I don’t have the stat, but I would
be scared to see how many times Georgia won when we had a back fail to get 100
yards.
I get it, we like to run the ball at Georgia. I am all for
running the ball. Even in 2016 when some schools are throwing it all around the
field, I believe in the running game. But you can’t run the ball ineffectively
and not change the game plan.
Last Saturday night, Missouri decided early in the game that
they were not going to allow Georgia to run the ball, and they were going to
make Jacob Eason beat them. You don’t have to be a great team to take away the
run or the pass from the opposing team. You have to be a great team to take
away both, but Missouri stopping the running game was simple numbers. If they
put 9 or 10 guys in the box, Georgia can’t run the ball. Period. If Ole Miss,
Tennessee, or anyone else Georgia plays this season puts 9 guys in the box,
Georgia is going to struggle running the ball.
But, last week, and moving forward, Georgia has a plan B.
If you were sitting in coaches’ meeting last week and you
told Jim Cheney that he was going to call nearly 60 pass play for his true
freshman quarterback in his first road game in the SEC, he would have laughed
you out of the room. If you could have convinced him that you were telling the
truth, he would have put down his plate of doughnuts and he would have been sweating
powdered sugar because Eason throwing 60 passes would have been a sure fire recipe
for failure.
But in the course of the game, it was the only logical
choice, and Cheney took it. I’m not sure past Georgia teams would have won that
game, because I’m not sure the coaching staff would have been willing to adapt
mid-game the way Cheney did.
Georgia beat UNC by running the ball. Georgia beat Missouri
by throwing the ball. Georgia beat Nicholls by the grace of God. Three wins,
three different ways.
Cheney’s offensive philosophy throughout his career has
adapted to his personnel and what opposing teams give him. When Drew Brees was
his quarterback, Cheney threw the ball all over the field. When Cheney was at
Arkansas and Tennessee coaching great running backs, Cheney ran the ball all
over the field. He isn’t singularly focused on one style, he is focused on
scoring points, any way he can. And let me tell you, that is, without a doubt,
the greatest offensive philosophy you will ever see.
Georgia has a ceiling this season. The offensive line isn’t
very good. The receivers are young. The kicking game is the equivalent of a
flaming bag of crap thrown on your front porch. None of those things are going to
improve dramatically throughout this season. Georgia is flawed, but so is
Tennessee and so is Florida, so Georgia has as good of a shot as any to win the
East.
This year isn’t the year for unreasonable expectations. That
comes in 2017.
Today’s prediction: Georgia 27 Ole Miss 31
Glory, Glory
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