NL East Question #1

2011 MLB Season Preview

Biggest questions in the NL East:

1. Do the Phillies have the best starting rotation in MLB history?

I’m not a baseball historian, but I can tell you that the answer to this question is absolutely not! You don’t have to go far back into the past to find a better pitching staff, and it was right here in Atlanta. Let’s pick the 1998 Braves as one of a few examples of a better pitching staff.

Pitcher: W/L ERA Complete Games
Maddux 18/9 2.22 9
Glavine 20/6 2.47 4
Neagle 16/11 3.55 5
Millwood 17/8 4.08 3
Smoltz 17/3 2.90 2
Totals: 88/37 3.04 23

The first stat that should jump out to you is 88 wins from a starting pitching staff. There were 19 major league teams that didn’t have 88 total wins in 2010, let alone from their starters. The dominance at the top of the rotation is only magnified when you think that John Smoltz was on pace to win the CY Young when he was hurt in the 1998 season. Glavine won the Cy Young in the NL in 1998.

Secondly, you should look at the number of complete games this team was able to put together. I understand that baseball is a different game now, but there is no way that the Phillies rotation will have even half this many complete games. Halladay is the only pitcher left in the majors who consistently goes 9 innings, and doesn’t that make you wonder, just a little bit, if he will start wearing down in the next couple of seasons?

The Phillies pitching staff is being hyped because of the signing of Cliff Lee, and what that could mean for the Phillies when they get to October. In a 5 game series you would have to beat either Lee or Halladay once, and in a 7 game series you could have to face them up to 4 times total. But in the regular season, they can only pitch 2 in 5 days. The rest of this rotation is good but not great. Hammels has never lived up to the hype he created in 2007 and 2008. Oswalt has been rotting in Houston for the last 4 years not playing for anything. Can he really just turn it on for an entire season and play at the top of his game? Blanton is the most comical of the bunch. Blanton is 72-60 in his career with an ERA of 4.30. Also factor in that his starts may be sporadic being the 5th starter, and I think you might be looking at a losing record for Blanton in 2011. Trying to pass this guy off as a front line starting pitcher is ridiculous. Blanton is at best a #3 starter in a bad rotation.

The Phillies have what it takes to make it back to the post-season. If they do, they have two horses that can take them all the way to the title, but let’s not get carried away with the accolades about the best starting rotation in baseball history. They do not even have the best starting rotation in the Wild Card Era.