Braves Question #3

2011 MLB Season Preview

Biggest questions for the Braves:

3. When will Chipper be back and will he be effective?

The Chipper Jones question is one that will be talked about all Spring, but Chipper is still saying he will be ready for opening day. The day to day recovery will be the key to Chipper’s status for the regular season. At 39, can Chipper really be counted on to play in even 140 games in 2011?

My belief is that Chipper is determined to play this season, and he will be in the lineup on opening day. Fredi Gonzalez doesn’t have the credibility to bench him if he says he is ready to go. Gonzalez would be better off letting Chipper stink for a few weeks and then make a move, rather than benching him from the start and letting his tenure as Braves manager start with controversy.

Jones wasn’t great last season, and only started hitting his stride just before the injury in Houston. The problem is that if he plays, Jones will be plugged into his traditional 3rd spot in the lineup. The Braves need real production out of the 3 spot, and can’t afford to have Jones there in an emeritus position. If Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman get off to good starts and Chipper struggles, there is going to be an uproar for change.

As important as how Jones plays when he plays, is who plays when he doesn’t play. Atlanta fans shudder at the thought of Brooks Conrad filling in at third, so are you going to move Prado back and forth from the outfield whenever Chipper needs an off day? Joe Mather was brought in to give some back up in the outfield, but the bigger effect would be on Prado who is trying to play outfield for the first time. Would his transition be made more difficult by moving around? Diory Hernandez hasn’t shown himself to be a major league player in my book, and therefore not a real option as someone who might start 30 games.

Even when Chipper starts, you can bet that Gonzalez will remove him from games late and maybe early in the case of a blow out in an attempt to save him for the stretch run.
If Jones can’t play, then the obvious move would be to put Prado at third, but the Braves don’t have an everyday option in left field in that case. Fan favorite Matt Diaz is a Washington National, and Fredi Gonzalez would rather quit now than be forced to play both Schafer and McLouth.

I think Jones has one more season in him, and he will play well in 2011. I also believe that win or lose, 2011 will be Chipper’s last season.

Jones has looked nothing short of spectacular so far during the spring. If he can give the Braves 120-130 games this season, I think Atlanta will be a lock for the post-season. If he can’t, the Braves will need to make a move at the trading deadline to play deep into October.