Braves Question #6

2011 MLB Season Preview

Biggest questions for the Braves:

6. Can Jason Heyward avoid a sophomore slump?

For Jason Heyward, 2010 couldn’t have really gone much better. Sure the second half of the season was hampered by the thumb injury (which Heyward now says is just fine), but how much could you really expect from a 20 year old rookie.

Heyward’s energy seemed to push the Braves for most of the first half of the season, and as he enters into his second year in the Braves’ outfield, Heyward has to confront high expectations. Last season was about the talent and the upside, this season will be all about results.

Can Heyward avoid a sophomore slump? My answer is yes, and my reasoning is because some of the best players in baseball just got better during their second full season in the majors.

First, let’s look at the man who has been the cornerstone of the Braves for the past 15 seasons. Chipper Jones was a rookie in 1995 and hit .265 with 23 HR, 86 RBI, and 99 strikeouts. He followed that up with a 1996 season where he hit .309 with 30 HR, 110 RBI, and only 88 strikeouts.

Other players like Albert Puljos, Alex Rodriguez, and Ryan Howard all improved in their second seasons.

Now let’s take a look at the last Braves right fielder to carry the hopes of an entire franchise. Jeff Francoeur was the last homegrown talent that was supposed to be a cornerstone of the next dynasty in Atlanta. He made national news when he burst onto the scene in 2005. He only played in 70 games that season, but if you project his numbers in ’05 across an entire 162 game season, and compare them to his 2006 numbers, they are almost identical. Only his average of .260 in 2006 was a significant drop-off from the previous season.

Yes, pitchers will make adjustments in 2011, but after a full season under his belt, pitchers have already made adjustments. The key for Heyward in 2011 will be to continue doing the little things right as he did in 2010. Another key will be where he hits in the order. If he can bat in the middle of the order rather than at the top of the order, he will have more opportunities to be aggressive and drive in runs.

16 Days until Opening Day! Taking a break from baseball to talk college basketball tomorrow. Braves Question #5 coming on Thursday!