The Showdown in Death Valley

Georgia at Clemson

It doesn’t get any bigger than Georgia’s season opener.  Two top ten teams with national title aspirations, renewing a historical rivalry, squaring off in one of the best venues in all of college football. There will be a moment, just before the games starts, that is a perfect example of why college football is so fantastic. Georgia will enter the stadium just before Clemson runs down the hill touching Howard’s Rock. As fans of both schools go crazy cheering for their team, take a moment to appreciate the tradition of college football.  

Two schools, separated by less than 100 miles, and two passionate fan bases, starving for a championship.

The Georgia/Clemson rivalry dates all the way back to 1897. Georgia leads the all time series, 41-17-4. Georgia holds a record of 8-6-2 at Memorial Stadium, also known as Death Valley. The last meeting was in 2003, when Georgia, the defending SEC champion, shut out Clemson 30-0 on their own field.  Georgia has won the last five games played between the two teams. The last Georgia loss came at Clemson in 1990.

The 2013 edition of the Georgia/Clemson game will be the second biggest in the history of the rivalry.

I say this is the second biggest because of the magnitude of the 1982 game.  The game was played on Labor Day night, and it was a matchup of the last two national champions. Georgia, the 1980 champions defeated 1981 national champion Clemson 13-7 in Athens. Georgia was led by an injured Herschel Walker, who would go on to win the Heisman Trophy that same year.

As for this year’s game, the storylines are endless.

For Georgia, the 2013 season will be all about trying to get back to the SEC title game and finish the job. I still think about that loss at least once a week, and I’m sure the players think about it daily. How does Georgia respond? Do they step up, or do they fall apart after getting so close?

For Clemson, they are trying to prove to themselves and the rest of the country that they belong in the national title conversation. They are riding high after beating LSU in the Chick-fil-A Bowl in 2012, and their top 10 ranking gives them a realistic shot to play for a national title if they can run the table. They have a favorable schedule, and expectations are high. How will they handle the pressure?

All of the questions won’t be answered on Saturday night, but a few will.

All of the hype leading up to the game has been about the quarterbacks. Both Tajh Boyd and Aaron Murray returned to their respective schools for their senior season to try and win a title.

 In his first year as a starter, Boyd led the Tigers to the ACC championship, but that season is most remembered by the unholy beating that Clemson took in the Orange Bowl, a 70-33 loss to West Virginia. Boyd has been remarkably consistent the past two years, and his ability to throw the ball down field to superstar wide receiver Sammy Watkins has been keeping Todd Grantham up at night.

For Murray, the 2013 season, and this game in particular is all about changing the narrative that has followed him his entire career. Murray has led the Dawgs to 2 straight SEC title games, but hasn’t been able to win either of them. The record speaks for itself. Murray is 3-14 in his Georgia career against Top 25 teams. Murray has won a lot of games, but the best win on his resume is against Florida last year, in a game that he didn’t even play particularly well in. Murray has the stats to be an all time quarterback, but he still has much to prove to the Bulldog Nation. Can Murray win the big game? We will find out on Saturday night.

There are many similarities when you look at these two teams.

Both teams have senior quarterbacks leading offenses that should score almost every time they touch the ball. Both teams have dynamic receivers. Both teams have offensive minded head coaches, and both teams have serious questions on the defensive side of the ball.

It would be easy to say the obvious. The team that doesn’t turn the ball over is going to win the game. To me, that is like saying the team that scores the most points is going to win the game. You can’t predict turnovers.

If either Boyd or Murray throws three picks, well, their team is probably going to lose.

I don’t think either of these quarterbacks is going to lose the game.

In my opinion, each team has a decided advantage in one area.

For Clemson, they have a huge edge in the kicking game. Some people might roll their eyes, but in a game that most people think will be very close, it could come down to a kicker. Senior Chandler Catanzaro was 18 of 19 on field goal attempts and only missed two of the 59 extra points he attempted last year.

Compare that with Georgia kicker Marshall Morgan who was only 8 of 14 last year and missed four extra points. Obviously, Georgia loses when it comes to the starting kickers, but the real problem for the Dawgs is that Morgan, presumably Georgia’s best kicker, won’t play on Saturday night because he was boating under the influence. Jimmy Buffet would be so proud. No other Georgia kicker has attempted a kick of any kind of consequence. Hopefully they won’t have to attempt one on Saturday night in Death Valley.

Georgia’s edge in this game is very simple: Todd Gurley. Todd Gurley might be the best running back in the country. Todd Gurley is the kind of running back that you can hand the ball to 25 times in an atmosphere like Death Valley and take the air out of the stadium. There is nothing on paper that tells me Clemson will have any chance of slowing down, let alone stopping Todd Gurley. In the Mark Richt Era, Georgia has lost only four games where a back has gone for over 100 yards. Perhaps the best thing about Georgia’s running situation is that they have a backup that was more highly recruited than their starter. Keith Marshall has taken a backseat to Gurley and his power running game, but Marshall’s change of pace and ability to catch the ball out of the backfield will be just one more thing Clemson, and every other team Georgia plays this year, will have to prepare for.

I don’t think there is any doubt that Georgia will be able to run the football, but what about Clemson?

In 2013, you can’t be one dimensional on offense and expect to win. Last season, Clemson was balanced on offense because they had Andre Ellington. Ellington ran for over 1000 yards last year, and he was enough of a factor in the backfield that teams had to respect the run. This year, Clemson will be depending on Roderick McDowell and Zac Brooks to shoulder the load at running back, but in their careers they have combined for less than 800 yards rushing. If Clemson can’t run the ball early against Georgia, and they become strictly a passing team, then it will make it much easier for Georgia’s young defense to do their job. Tajh Boyd is very good, but he can’t win the game by himself.

One thing the Georgia defense will want to keep an eye out for is Sammy Watkins on trick plays. If Clemson struggles running the ball early, I think they will try a reverse or some other type of trick play to get the ball in Watkins’ hands. If I have thought of this, then so has Todd Grantham. Hopefully Georgia’s defense will be ready.

So, what is going to happen?

Georgia’s ability to run the ball will be the difference. I see a back and forth game in the first half, but slowly, Georgia pulls away in the second half because of their ability to throw off play action fakes. Fakes set up by Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall running up and down the field on Clemson’s defense.

Murray will play well, but Gurley will be the person everyone is talking about on Sunday morning. By the end of the night, Georgia will have rushed for over 200 yards and will approach 500 yards of total offense.

This is not going to be an easy game for Georgia. Clemson is extremely talented, and that stadium will be rocking. Georgia has played in big games before, and that experience will be invaluable on Saturday night.

Georgia 45   Clemson 34

GO DAWGS!

College Football Preview: Georgia

Georgia Preview

12-2 (7-2 in the SEC)                                                   defeated Nebraska 45-31 in the Capital One Bowl

State of the Dawgs Report:

Before we get to last season, I think it would be appropriate to take a moment and think about where we were as a program just two and a half years ago.  Following the 2010 season, Georgia had suffered its first losing season under Mark Richt, thanks to a Liberty Bowl loss to UCF 10-6.  Georgia lost 5 games in the SEC in 2010. 

2010 was the lowest of the low points that began in 2008 when Georgia entered the season ranked #1, but would go on to lose three games.  After 2008, Georgia lost Stafford and Moreno to the NFL, and in 2009 it was obvious that the talent level had fallen off.  Georgia wasn’t just losing to teams like Florida, LSU, and Alabama, they were losing to Oklahoma State, Kentucky, and Mississippi State. 

Players were getting in trouble on and off the field, and it really seemed like Mark Richt was losing control of the program. 

In 2011, Georgia dropped their first two games of the season to Boise State and South Carolina.  I really believe that Richt was one loss away from being fired, but that loss never came.  Georgia won 10 straight games to finish the season 10-2 and won the SEC East.  It was the first 10 win season for the team since 2007. 

Despite losses to LSU in the SEC title game and Michigan State in the Outback Bowl, Georgia had taken a step forward.

Last year, Georgia took yet another step forward.  An October loss to South Carolina was a huge disappointment, but Georgia managed to beat Florida in Jacksonville for the second straight season, to again win the SEC East. 

Obviously, last year’s game against Alabama is both a point of pride and a scar that will never heal.  Georgia was one play away from the National title.  They were as close as they have been since 1/1/83, the last day of the Herschel and Dooley Dynasty. 

Georgia is back, and before we can start to look ahead, it is only right that we take a minute to think back.  Perspective is hard to find the SEC, but a heartbreaking loss to Alabama in the SEC title game is a heck of a lot better than mind numbing loss to UCF in the Liberty Bowl.

In my opinion, the moral of the story is quite simple. Mark Richt is the right man for Georgia. No team can stay dominant in this league forever. Before anyone says Alabama, please take a look at Alabama from 2001 to 2007. Far from dominant. Alabama wasn’t always the Alabama that they are now, and they won’t be this Alabama forever. They have had one of the best runs in college football history, and to say that is the standard by which all programs should be measured is insane.

Richt has played in five SEC title games in his 12 seasons in Athens. That is 5 more than Georgia had ever played in before Coach Richt came to Athens. So Georgia fans, please, no matter what happens this season, no comments about fire Mark Richt. It says less about Richt and more about you.

2012 Recap:

For the first time in a long time, Georgia made it through the month of September undefeated. They throttled Buffalo early in the season and won a big game on the road at Missouri. Georgia looked underwhelming against Florida A&M, but looked almost perfect a week later against Vanderbilt. Georgia closed out the month with a win against Tennessee where Georgia broke out to a huge lead in the first half, but ended up letting the Vols back into the game before winning 51-44.

The three October games defined the season. Georgia was embarrassed and manhandled on the road at South Carolina in a national television showdown. The final score was 35-7, but it wasn’t that close. A week later, Georgia looked lethargic and ineffective against a terrible Kentucky team. When I say a terrible Kentucky team I don’t mean by SEC standards they are terrible. I mean by Kentucky football standards (which are almost non-existent) standards. Georgia hobbled into their bye week feeling about as bad as you can when your record is 6-1. Georgia then headed to Jacksonville, where so many previous Georgia team’s dreams died, to play the second ranked Gators. The game was ugly. Florida scored only 9 points in the game and they turned the ball over 5 times, but Georgia fans have seen well played games that we have lost, so any win against the Gators is a good win.

After beating Florida, Georgia was back in the driver’s seat to get to Atlanta because South Carolina had dropped two straight to Florida and LSU.

The Dawgs hit their stride with a home win against Ole Miss and an eastern division title clinching destruction of Auburn on the Plains. They used Georgia Southern to prepare for Georgia Tech’s triple option and won both of those games at home to finish the season 11-1 and head to Atlanta to play Alabama for the SEC title and a spot in the national title game.

We all know how that game went, but the meaning of that game is yet to be determined. The heartbreak felt by the players, the coaches, and the fans could be the driving force of the 2013 team, or it could be a point of doubt in everyone’s minds that leads to a disappointing season. Only time will tell, but many times, you have to get close to your goal and fail in order to know just what it takes to win at the highest level. I believe Georgia learned the hard way last year what it takes to win a national title, and they have prepared the entire offseason to finish the job in 2013.

The Capital One Bowl victory over a good Nebraska team to finish the 2012 campaign was impressive to me. Georgia had no reason to be ready to play in that game. They could have spent their bowl practice time focusing on what they missed rather than what they had in front on them, but that isn’t what happened. Georgia played well and won the game 45-31. It was the 8^th time in 14 games they scored 40 or more points.

The Schedule:

Georgia’s high preseason ranking and all of the hype surrounding the season could be over before Alabama and Texas A&M square off on September 14^th.  A primetime date with Clemson in Death Valley on August 31^st is followed by a SEC East showdown with South Carolina between the hedges.  As if that wasn’t enough, Georgia will host LSU before the end of September.

Much like was the case in 2011, the primetime nationally televised game to start the season is not nearly as important as the conference game one week later.  After September, Georgia travels to Tennessee and Vanderbilt, with a home date with Missouri in between.  November brings the Cocktail Party before games against Appalachian State, Auburn, Kentucky, and a trip down to Atlanta to face Georgia Tech.  If Georgia is 3-1, no matter who the loss comes to, entering October, Georgia can just stay in Atlanta after the Tech game, because they will playing in the SEC title game for the third time in three years. 

Key Returner:

Aaron Murray.  Georgia’s offense broke every record in the book last season and pretty much return everyone in 2013.  While Todd Gurley is the best returning player Georgia has on offense, Murray, a four year starter, is the key.  Murray’s experience in the offense and his ability to pass the ball as well as any Georgia quarterback ever has means that defenses won’t be able load up on the run. 

The biggest question about Murray is his ability to beat the best teams. He didn’t play well against Florida last year, but Georgia won the game. He played well against Alabama, but Georgia lost the game. Murray might not always be the reason Georgia wins games, but as long as he isn’t the reason Georgia loses games, then the Dawgs have a shot at a special season.

Questions surround the defense going into this season because of the names lost on that side of the ball. Without Murray, there would be the same questions surrounding the offense. Instead, Georgia’s offense is expected to be one of the best units in the nation and has catapulted Georgia into the top five in the preseason polls.

By the end of the 2013 season, Aaron Murray will be statistically the greatest quarterback that has ever worn the Red and Black.  If he can lead Georgia to the National Title game in his final season in Athens, he should also have a seat in New York for the Heisman Ceremony in December.

Key Loss:

Jarvis Jones.  Other than David Pollack, no defensive player impacted games like Jones did.  Just last season, Georgia would have lost two more games if it wasn’t for Jones.  He single-handedly changed the Missouri game in the fourth quarter, and for the second year in a row, he was the difference in Jacksonville.  A player like Jones comes along once in a generation, so there is no way that Georgia can hope to replace him.  However, Georgia has the athletes on defense to still be viable, but it will have to be a collective effort.  Jarvis won’t be there this time to save the day.

Positional Previews:

Offense:

Quarterback: Everyone knows about Aaron Murray and for a few years now, Georgia coaches have been saying that the offense would be in a great position if anything happened to Murray because of backup Hutson Mason. The new name for Georgia fans to put on their radar is Bryce Ramsey. Ramsey enrolled at Georgia last January and was able to take part in spring practice, just like Aaron Murray did as a freshman. Ramsey will red shirt this year with so much depth at quarterback, but more and more we are hearing that Ramsey could have a legitimate shot at starting next season. I have always thought that Hutson Mason would have a DJ Shockley type of season in 2014 where he would get to start in his senior season after waiting patiently for so long. If Ramsey is really good enough to challenge for the job next year it will mean that Georgia will be inexperienced at quarterback, but not void of talent.

Running back: Can you believe that only one year ago we were worried about the running back position? There are no worries in 2013. The two headed monster of Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall give Georgia the best one-two punch at running back in the nation. Do you remember how Ken Malcome got a good number of carries last year, even with Gurley and Marshall playing so well? This year, the man getting those carries will be freshman JJ Green. Green is 5-8, 171 pounds from Camden County, GA. Apparently, he has turned quite a few heads during fall practice. If he can pick up the blocking schemes that Georgia uses, Georgia will have one more body they can put in the backfield during the long SEC season.

Tight end: Georgia has two phenomenal tight ends. Arthur Lynch was named to the first team All SEC team, and Jay Rome might actually be better in pass catching situations. Georgia will have a ton of options on offense this year, but their ability to play two tight end formations that they can pass out of because of their two pass catching tight ends is one of many matchup problems that teams will face this year. One thing Georgia might need to find this season is a solid blocker at the tight end position. While both Lynch and Rome are good at blocking and great at pass catching, Georgia needs to find a third tight end that can help the offensive line in run blocking situations and jumbo packages.

Offensive Line: All five starters are back from an offensive line that got better as they went along in 2012. In fact, Georgia brings back everyone on the offensive line other than senior Austin Long who left the team for academic reasons. There might not be one big name on the offensive line, but their ability to work together as a unit could be one more addition to an offense that should be one of the best in the country. Sophomore John Theus took a lot of lumps last year as a freshman, but if he can take the next step in playing right tackle, then the line could be better than good, it could be great. One thing that is for sure, the best story surrounding this team is found on the offensive line. Kolton Houston was pretty much done at Georgia. He was literally down to his last test as he fought the NCAA to get reinstated after mistakenly being administered steroids when he was still in high school. Houson was reinstated by the NCAA on his birthday, and will now be on the field for the Dawgs for the first time in 2013. It almost doesn’t matter how Houston plays, but if he becomes a key piece on the offensive line, it will make for even a better story that already has a happy ending.

Wide Receiver: First let’s start with the names you already know. The receivers are led by junior Malcolm Mitchell. Mitchell is a home run threat each and every time he touches the ball. It was Mitchell’s run after catch last season that scored the game clinching touchdown in the Florida game. Mitchell will only be played on offense in 2013 after playing on both sides of the ball in 2012. After suffering a season ending injury in 2012, Michael Bennett will be back in 2013. Bennett has the best hands on the team and is the most consistent target for Aaron Murray. Chris Conley is also back after having a great year in 2012. Conley is most remembered for not dropping the final pass of the SEC title game, but this year, I think Conley will give us other things to remember. Amazingly, Rantavious Wooten is back for what seems like his 8^th season in Athens, but is actually on his senior season. Rhett McGowan also made some big catches in 2012 and he is back for his senior season as well.

Justin Scott-Wesley isn’t a new name, but he will see more of the field in 2013 than he has in the past. Scott-Wesley is 5-11, 201 pounds, and is quick as a hiccup. In high school Scott-Wesley was a track star that won a total of 3 state titles in the 300 meter and 100 meter dashes.

Two new names that will contribute in 2013 are Jonathan Rumph and Tramel Terry. Rumph is a 6-5 junior college transfer who will give Georgia another threat in the red zone with his size. Tramel Terry is a true freshman who was the number one recruit in the state of South Carolina in 2013. If Terry gets on the field against Clemson and South Carolina early in the season he may be extra motivated to make some noise against the schools from his home state.

Just to give you an example of what Georgia can do on offense in 2013, you could have Todd Gurley as a single set back with Mitchell, Conely, Scott-Wesley, and Bennett lined up at receiver. In this situation, you would either have only one man on Gurley if you decided to run the ball, or a line backer trying to cover one of those receivers.

Georgia will use their hurry up offense even more in 2013, allowing them to keep the same defensive players on the field when they have matchups that they find advantageous. If you want a fun exercise to do throughout the season, count the number of times teams take timeouts on defense just so they can get the proper personnel in the game.

Defense:

Defensive Line: One of the biggest parts of a 3-4 defense is the nose tackle. For the past two years, Georgia has been spoiled because they had not one, but two prototypical nose tackles. The perfect nose tackle weighs about 325 pounds, and requires two offensive linemen to stop him on each and every play. That double team is what makes the numbers work on a 3-4 defense. Five offensive linemen to block three defensive linemen will never work, even if you bring a linebacker blitzing on the play, it’s still 4 on 5 in favor of the offense. But if your nose tackle requires a double team, well then you only have one man left to block that blitzing linebacker, and when that linebacker is Jarvis Jones or Alec Ogletree, it’s not a good day to be the offensive linemen trying to pick the linebacker up. Georgia has many questions on defense in 2013, but the most basic and fundamental question is whether or not Georgia can replace Kwame Geathers and John Jenkins at the nose tackle position. Mike Thornton is 6-1 and 290 pounds, and he is listed as the starter right now at nose tackle for Georgia. His back up is a redshirt sophomore named Chris Mayes (6-4, 321). If either one of those two guys can step up and be a legitimate nose tackle, then Georgia’s defense can be better than most people are expecting. At the defensive end position, Garrison Smith is a rare bread for Georgia in 2013. He is a senior and a proven player who will contribute from day one. At the other end position, Sterling Bailey is listed ahead of Ray Drew. For Drew, his junior season might be his last chance to live up to the hype that came along with his recruitment in 2011. He might be wearing number 47, but that is as far as the comparisons go between Ray Drew and David Pollack.

Linebacker: Next to wide receiver, this is Georgia’s deepest position. Jordan Jenkins will be a superstar. It is hard to compare someone to Jarvis Jones, but if anyone deserves that comparison, it is Jenkins. By the end of last season, he was starting as a true freshman, and he was a legitimate threat opposite of Jones. The other outside linebacker spot is currently filled by James DeLoach, who at 6-3 and 265, has impressed the coaches during fall practice.

Georgia has returning experience at both inside linebacker positions as Amarlo Herrera and Ramik Wilson are both juniors who have seen significant playing time in their careers. Both starters were freshmen when Todd Grantham’s 3-4 defense was installed before the 2011 season, and both should be major contributors in the 2013.

Even though he is not listed on the two-deep depth chart to start the season, remember the name Johnny O’Neal. He is exactly what a football player is supposed to look like, and I think he might be the next star on defense for Georgia.

Secondary: The two cornerback spots are pretty set. Junior Damian Swann was a starter last season and he returns in 2013 as the leader of the secondary. Sophomore Sheldon Dawson played some last season, and seems to have solidified a spot in the starting lineup. Shaq Wiggins and Brendan Langley are both true freshman that will play significant time for Georgia this year. Both were highly recruited, but being freshmen, both will probably make their fair share of mistakes, especially early in the season.

If you aren’t nervous yet, then keep reading.

Safety could end up being a strong point of this team by the time the season ends, but right now, it has to be the biggest question mark for the Dawgs as they head to Clemson. Connor Norman is a former walk on who is now a junior, and he is listed as the starter at strong safety. That position will ultimately be filled by Josh Harvey-Clemons, but Josh will not make the trip to Clemson because of a suspension. Trey Matthews was another big time recruit for Georgia this past February, but now he is going to be the starter at free safety. The only problem is that Matthews has suffered from injury after injury going all the way back to spring football. He will most likely start against Clemson, but in truth he hasn’t practiced in more than a week, so how prepared he will be against Clemson’s potent offense will be one of the biggest things to keep an eye on in the opener.

Again, I think the defense is going to be great by the end of the year, but they have to be great in the first four games of the season unless they want to showcase their skills in the Outback Bowl.

Special Teams: Colin Barber and Marshall Morgan are both back for their sophomore season. Barber was solid at punter last season. Honestly, as good as Georgia’s offense is, I’m not sure how many pressure punting situations Barber is going to see this year.

Morgan on the other hand is a problem. Morgan missed 4 extra points in 2013 and was only 8-14 on field goals. For years, going back to Billy Bennett, Brandon Coutu, and Blair Walsh, Georgia has had strong legged kickers who could hit long field goals on a regular basis. Last year Morgan was only 3-8 on field goals of 40+ yards. On top of a shaky season in 2012, Morgan will probably miss the season’s opening game because he was arrested this summer for boating under the influence. My hope is that Morgan is replaced by a walk on that, you know, can actually make field goals. Quick, what do you call a kicker that can’t kick? Exactly.

I have heard nothing to support what I am about to say, but I would guess that with Georgia’s depth at wide receiver you will see Malcolm Mitchell much more in kick and punt return situations this year. It that does happen, it will be great for Georgia. Mitchell is a threat to score every time he gets the ball in his hands, so the more times he can touch it, the better. No official word has been given, but I would be willing to bet that Rhett McGowan will be Georgia’s dreaded fair catch expert again in 2013.

Success Will Be:

It’s amazing how quickly expectations rise. Rightly or wrongly, Georgia is expected to play in the SEC title game again, and after their performance last season, I think they need to win it. There is only one thing that Mark Richt hasn’t done in his time at Georgia, and until he does that one thing, I don’t think his job will truly be safe. The only thing worse for Georgia than not making it to the SEC and/or national title games in 2013 would becoming the first SEC school to lose a national title game to a non-SEC school. Can you imagine the pressure now on any SEC school playing in the title game? You don’t want to be the team that breaks the streak.

Prediction:

On Saturday October 29, 2011 I sat in my brother’s new house and watched the Georgia/Florida game. I told the people watching the game that day that if Georgia could manage to win that game, they would play in three consecutive SEC title games.

Mark Richt went for it on fourth down twice that day, and twice it resulted in touchdowns. Georgia beat Florida, won the East and played LSU for the SEC title.

Obviously, Georgia overcame the loss to South Carolina last season to reach the SEC title game again. This time, Georgia played very well, and almost punched their ticket to the national title game.

I believe 2013 will be the year Georgia fans have been waiting on since 1980. More and more, at every level, football is becoming a game about offense.

Wait, old people say all the time that defense wins championships. That has to be true, right?

Wrong.

Offense wins championships. Points win championships.

But, Alabama had a great defense the last two years and they won the title. Yes, but they also had great offenses. Remember, last year there were serious conversations about Alabama having the greatest offensive line in college football history. Alabama destroyed Notre Dame in the title game 42-14. Not 17-14, but 42 points.

I’m not saying you don’t have to play defense at all, but I am saying that football has changed because of the awareness that has been raised regarding player safety. You can’t hit the quarterback. You can’t hit defenseless receivers. You can’t touch a receiver after five yards. You can’t lower your helmet to hit the guy with the ball. All of these rules have been instituted over the past 5 or 10 years and they all make it harder to play defense.

Think back over this run that the SEC has had since 2006. In 2006 and 2008 Florida had a good defense, but they also had Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin. In 2007, LSU had Matt Flynn (okay that is pretty weak sauce, but keep reading), in 2009 Alabama had Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson, and Julio Jones. In 2010 Auburn had Michael Dyer and Scam Newton. In 2011, Richardson was still at Alabama and they added Eddy Lacy. And last year’s Alabama team had Lacy, Yeldon, and Amare Cooper to go along with that offensive line.

Other than Flynn, the names I just mentioned aren’t just players that had a good game or a good season, they are some of the best players in college football and it isn’t a coincidence that they have national title rings.

Georgia will have one of the best offenses in college football in 2013. They have weapons all over the field. They have an offensive line that was good last year and should be great this year. They have the best running back in the country who should be able to close out games. They have a quarterback who needs to cement his legacy. They have a coach who was an offensive genius before he was a head coach. They have every ingredient you need to make a great offense.

They won’t lead the country in scoring because in the SEC you play teams that actually play as much defense as they are allowed to play, but they will prove against those tough defenses just how good they are.

My predictions for Georgia have been right on the money the past two years. (Go back and check this blog if you don’t believe me) Here is my prediction for 2013. Georgia will be either 11-1 or 12-0 playing for the SEC title and a chance to play for the national championship again, and this time, I believe it is our time.

I have done previews on pretty much every serious contender in college football. More and more I see that while Georgia has its flaws, Georgia is no more flawed than any of the other contenders.

The team’s motto for the season is New Year. New Team. One Dream.

One dream indeed.

Go Dawgs!

College Football Preview: SEC Quickviews

Auburn: 

3-9 in 2012 (0-8 in the SEC)

Only two seasons removed from winning the national title, the Tigers laid a goose egg in SEC play in 2012 and it cost Gene Chizik his job.  Auburn hired former Chizik coordinator Gus Malzahn to be their new head coach.  It will probably take a year for Malzahn to really get going at Auburn, but they could pull an upset somewhere along the way.  Apparently former Georgia DB Nick Marshall is going to get a look at quarterback in Auburn’s new, old offensive system in an attempt to recreate Cam Newton.  No word yet about how much Cecil Newton is planning on charging. Auburn will be better in 2013 than 2012, but that isn’t saying much.  They will be right on the brink of going to a bowl game, but they better have that locked up before November 16^th, when they finish against Georgia and Alabama. 

Arkansas:

4-8 in 2012 (2-6 in the SEC)

You have to feel a little bad for Arkansas.  Two years ago they were 11-2, yes the third best team in their division, but perhaps the third best team in the nation.  Then Bobby Patrino went for a motorcycle ride, John L. Smith brought his debt and his suggestion that everyone smile to Fayetteville, now you have a lifetime Big 10 coach that wants to play hard-nosed football against the best teams in the country.  I wished I could say that better days are ahead for Hog fans, but there doesn't seem to be any reason to think that Bret Bielema is the answer.  He even brought the Big 10 form of scheduling with him.  Arkansas opens up with 4 non-conference games and then plays 8 straight SEC games with two bye weeks sprinkled in.  If they win one game in conference it will be a miracle. 

Kentucky:

2-10 in 2012 (0-8 in the SEC)

After a terrible season, Kentucky fired Joker Phillips and brought in Mark Stoops to try and build something in Lexington.  Stoops big brother, Bob, thinks that the SEC is just a hype machine and that the level of competition isn't really that much better than any other conference.  My guess is that this Christmas, Mark will be able, in great detail, to explain to his brother what being in the SEC is all about.  I think Kentucky will double their win total in 2013 from a year ago, but they won’t win more than one game in conference.  Better days are ahead though, as Stoops has begun recruiting the state of Ohio rather than fight and claw for the best players in the South.  I think they will be a bowl team in a year or two, which is big in Kentucky. 

Ole Miss:

7-6 in 2012 (3-5 in the SEC)

I really wanted to put Ole Miss in the category of teams that deserved a full preview, but they just aren't there yet. Bo Wallace returns at quarterback, and the Rebels had a fantastic recruiting class this past February. But on the field they are still a step or two below the top level of the SEC West. In a five game stretch this season, Ole Miss plays at #15 Texas, at #1 Alabama, v. #7 Texas A&M, and v. #12 LSU. Oh, and the other game in there is a road trip to Auburn, not exactly an easy game. Without an opening night win against Vanderbilt, it might be tough for the Rebels to do better than 7-5 in 2013, and that is assuming they can upset one of the four teams I mentioned above. Hugh Freeze has the Rebels going in the right direction, but he may need a little patience with this team and that schedule.

Mississippi State:

8-5 in 2012 (4-4 in the SEC)

The narrative of the 2012 State season is one that seems a lot worse than it is.  Yes they were 7-0 and ranked highly when they played Alabama last year and got destroyed, 38-7.  And yes, they went on to lose 4 of their next five after that game, but those games were against A&M, LSU, Ole Miss, and Northwestern in the bowl game.  No matter what order the wins and the losses came in, State beat the teams they were supposed to beat and lost to the teams they were supposed to lose to.  The biggest concern in Starkville should be that a few years ago they looked like a team that could get into the top of their division and compete with LSU and Alabama.  Now, they look like the second best team in their state.  For Dan Mullen, it will be losing to Ole Miss, not LSU or Alabama that will cost him his job if he can’t manage to turn the tide in his home state.  State won’t go bowling this year and Mullen will be lucky to survive.

Missouri

5-7 in 2012 (2-6 in the SEC)

Missouri thought they were going to have the season that A&M had in 2012, unfortunately for them, they only proved what many fans thought before their first season in the SEC: they don’t belong.  It wasn’t just that they lost 6 of their 8 conference games, it was how they lost those games.  Missouri had Georgia in a close game at home and then the wheels fell off in the fourth quarter, they lost by 3 touchdowns.  They lost by 3 touchdowns to South Carolina.  They lost by 31 to Alabama in a game that will be remembered because Nick Saban made one of his defensive players apologize for throwing, yes throwing, a Missouri player.  They lost by 30 to A&M to end the season.  If there was a signature moment it was a win in Knoxville in overtime, but really that isn’t as big as it sounds.  The forecast in Missouri is misery.  They will be hard pressed to match their win total in conference from last season.  No bowl for the Tigers, and they will probably give Gary Pinkle one more season before they start to get tired of being the new Kentucky of the SEC.

Tennessee

5-7 in 2012 (1-7 in the SEC)

15 years ago you wouldn't have believed that Tennessee football could have turned into the dumpster fire that it is now.  The school that brought you Peyton Manning, Tee Martin and a national title, big fat Phil Fulmer with his arm pit stains, and Rocky Top so many times your ears started bleeding have fallen on the hardest times you could ever think of.  I’m not sure Derek Dooley got a fair shake at Tennessee, but the truth is he didn't seem to be moving things forward, so he is out and in comes Butch Jones.  Tennessee’s talent level isn't at SEC standards, but he will have a chance to get off to a good start if they can upset Florida in the swamp.  Their schedule is a beast: at Oregon, at Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and at Alabama.  If they win any of those five games, then Jones will have something real to build off of this season, but I don’t think it will happen.  Their two shots at wins in conference both come on the road, at Missouri and at Kentucky, but things will be getting better in Knoxville for the first time in a long time.

Vanderbilt

9-4 in 2012 (5-3 in the SEC)

James Franklin has done an amazing job at Vanderbilt, but now he has the unenviable task of trying to take 

that last caveat out of the statement: at Vanderbilt.  2012 was a great season at Vanderbilt, but an average season for a true contender in the SEC.  Vanderbilt lost to the three teams that finished ahead of them in the SEC East.  They played South Carolina tough in the first game of the season, but they were embarrassed by Georgia in Athens 48-3 and gave up 31 points to a Florida offense that struggled all season.  There is nothing wrong with losing to those teams, but if Franklin wants to go to the next level, he will have to beat one of the big boys.  Vanderbilt has a new quarterback to break in and they go on the road to South Carolina, Florida, and A&M.  They open against Ole Miss in a game that I think will shape the season of both teams.  James Franklin has done an amazing job, but I think he has taken Vanderbilt as far as they can go, time for Franklin to try and find a job at a school where he can compete for titles.