Tuesday, August 4, 2015

Reasons for Optimism

We have already established what the bar is for the 2015 Georgia Bulldogs. 10-2 would be a successful season. Anything better than that would be, in my opinion, an over achievement, and anything less than 10 wins would make for a third straight year of Georgia underachieving. Let me be clear, 10-2 isn’t my prediction for what I expect to happen as much as a conservative bar of what would be acceptable.
I like to think of myself as an optimist, so we will start today with reason to be optimistic for the 2015 season.
1.       Talent

This team, on the back of two consecutive, excellent recruiting classes is the most talented group of players that Georgia has ever put on the field in the Mark Richt era.
Offensively Georgia has playmakers all over the field. Chubb and Michel are the most dynamic one two punch in college football. The biggest thing new offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer will bring to the table is, hopefully, an NFL approach to the offense where you try to get your best players on the field at the same time. Chubb lined up in the backfield, with Michel, or sophomore wide receiver Isaiah McKenzie in the slot, tight end Jeb Blazevich, and two wide receivers on the outside will give Georgia so many options that any defense would have a hard time covering everyone. Obviously, Georgia’s offense is going to be run first, as always, but the ability to get quick throws in the hands of speedy guys like Michel, McKenzie, and Malcolm Mitchell, will take a lot of heat off the inexperienced quarterback, whoever he is. The forgotten part of this offense that is going to be a major strength is the offensive line. Deep and experienced, the offensive line might be the best in the SEC.
2.       Nick Chubb

Last year, Chubb was the third guy to get into the game against Clemson. By the time Chubb started getting carries late in the third quarter, Georgia was well on its way to winning the game, but the run that Chubb made down the Georgia sideline, where he ran around, and over Clemson defenders was epic. It was so epic, that you probably didn’t remember that he had stepped out of bounds on the long run and the touchdown was called back. By the middle of the season, Chubb had gone from third string to the only healthy running back Georgia had eligible to play. At Missouri, in perhaps Georgia most impressive game of the 2014 season, Chubb was a workhorse. Chubb ran for 143 tough yards on a mind-blowing 38 carries with one touchdown. If the Missouri game was his coming out party, the Arkansas game a week later was his coronation as the lead Dawg to the Bulldog Nation. 30 more carries against the Hogs for 202 yards and 2 touchdowns. By the time Chubb was finished running all over the Louisville defense in the Belk Bowl, the freshman had run for 1547 yards and 14 touchdowns. He was the first team All SEC running back and the SEC Freshman of the Year. Only one Dawg has ever run for more yards in a season than Nick Chubb ran for last year, and they ended up retiring his number 34. Chubb’s humility and team first mentality is refreshing, and seemingly genuine, you want to root for number 27, and Georgia fans should be thrilled to have him in the backfield for two more seasons.
3.       Year 2 of the Jeremy Pruitt Defense

A year ago, Georgia fans saw a significant improvement on the defensive side of the ball. Not that the bar had been set very high by the Todd Grantham disgraces that were Georgia’s defense in 2013. Last year was by no means perfect, but you have to feel that things were heading in the right direction. The most glaring problem from 2014 on the defensive side of the ball was Georgia’s inability to adjust to the run game against Florida and Tech. Both teams kept running the same play, over and over, and having success. Georgia will have to be better against the run in 2015 if they want to compete against the best teams in the league. The most encouraging aspect of the defense was the secondary. Pruitt was secondary coach at Alabama before his one year as defensive coordinator at Florida State, and his work with Georgia’s secondary last season paid big dividends. Schematically, a secondary that covers well will give the strength of Georgia’s defense, the linebackers, time to get to the quarterback without having to blitz on every play. About those linebackers, Jordan Jenkins returns for his senior season. Leonard Floyd comes back for his red-shirt junior season, and Lorenzo Carter, who might be better than either of his upper classmen counterparts, will look to build on an impressive freshman season. If Pruitt can figure out ways to get all three guys on the field at the same time, quarterbacks will be safer taking a knee, rather than risking their lives by dropping back for a pass. When Georgia was at their best under Mark Richt, in 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2012 Georgia’s defense was a big part of the team’s overall success. That would appear to be the case again. The question is, how good can this defense be this season, while still keeping Pruitt in Athens?

4.       Impact Freshman

Georgia has a talented freshman class coming in. Each year, I do a single post about the names you might not know now, but you will know by October, so you will get a lot more on the incoming freshman, but believe me when I tell you that just like last season, when Nick Chubb, Sony Michel, Isaiah McKenzie, Lorenzo Carter, Jeb Blazevich, and Dominick Sanders made big contributions as freshman, Georgia will be better because of their incoming class. It would be hard to top last year’s class, but Georgia might be able to duplicate their freshman success of 2014.
5.      Weak East

For the first 10-15 years of the SEC, the league was dominated by the Eastern Division. Obviously, the tide (no pun intended) has changed, and the West is by far the stronger of the two divisions. The coaches poll, which has already been released features 5 SEC West teams in the top 25, with the other two teams ranked 26th and 27th if the poll were extended. Contrastly, Georgia, Missouri, and Tennessee are the only Eastern division teams that are ranked in the preseason poll, and the Vols come in at #25. Vanderbilt is terrible, Kentucky is getting better, so they are only bad, Florida is an unknown quantity, and South Carolina has seen their best days come and go. The East is wide open, which should mean that Georgia won’t have to be perfect to win the division, but as we have seen many times in the past, strange things happen on the road to Atlanta. Missouri won the East last year despite a 30-0 home loss to runner up Georgia. Georgia won the East in 2012 despite at 35-7 loss to runner up South Carolina. Georgia lost their first two games in 2011, to Boise State and South Carolina, only to reel off 10 straight wins to win the division at 10-2. There is no way any team in the SEC is going to be undefeated this season, but I think there could be an 11-1 team coming out of the SEC East, heading to Atlanta for a shot at the playoff. The West is going to get all the hype again this season, and for good reason, but being in the East is a far better path to the College Football Playoff.


For every ying, there is a yang. Next up, I give you the reasons to worry about Georgia in 2015.

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