Thursday, August 6, 2015

Concerns for the 2015 Season

I’ve already told you that there are a lot of reasons to be excited about Georgia in 2015, but let’s be honest; there are a lot of question marks as well. For those fans that grew up in the Vince Dooley/Larry Munson era, you are more accustomed to hearing about all of the bad things that could happen to our beloved Bulldogs than to hearing anything positive. While both Dooley and Munson loved Georgia, I’m not sure if they ever felt confident before any game against a significant opponent.

A cynical man would say that there isn’t much difference between a realist and a pessimist, but I’m not sure that I buy that. Realistic, Pessimistic, or whatever you might want to call it, here are five reasons to be concerned about the 2015 Georgia Bulldogs.
1.       Who will be the starting quarterback?
For only the third time in the 15 seasons that Mark Richt has been at Georgia, there are legitimate questions surrounding the quarterback position as fall camp starts. In 2001, David Greene and Corey Phillips were battling for the job. Obviously that battle was won by Greene and he would lead Georgia to the SEC title one year later. In 2006, there was a three man race between Joe T 3 (I didn’t want to look up how to spell his name), Joe Cox, and Matthew Stafford. That season, all three quarterbacks started for Georgia and won games for Georgia, but eventually, Stafford won the job and led Georgia to a #2 national finish a year later.

This year, the race is more wide open and a lot different. Barring some unforeseen turn of events, none of the quarterbacks on Georgia’s roster will be the starter when the 2016 edition of the Bulldogs take the field in the Georgia Dome against North Carolina next year in the Chick-fil-A kickoff game. In January, Jacob Eason will be enrolling in classes and will participate in spring practice. Eason is the quarterback of the future, and I expect him to start from day one when he gets to Georgia, so while the quarterback race this year is intriguing and important, it is for one season only.

Bryce Ramsey, Faton Bauta, and Virginia transfer Grayson Lambert will all be vying to start under center for Georgia this year. Ramsey has the most experience as he was Hutson Mason’s back up a year ago and appeared in a few games. Ramsey played the rest of the Belk Bowl after Mason’s injury and looked shaky at best. Bauta brings potentially a new wrinkle to Georgia’s offense, with his ability to run. However, it remains to be seen whether or not Bauta can be effective enough from the pocket to fit into Georgia’s Pro Style offense. The Dawgs won’t be running the spread option any time soon, and for play action to actually work, you have to be able to throw the ball down field with some sort of effectiveness. Lambert is the biggest question mark. Fall practice is his first chance to get on the field with the coaching staff. He hasn’t learned the offense and his numbers at Virginia were pedestrian at best. The biggest question for Lambert is why did Georgia want him? With Eason coming in next year and two experienced quarterbacks already on the roster, what did the coaching staff see in Grayson Lambert?

It has been proven in recent years that your quarterback doesn’t have to be the best in the nation to win a national title, but he has to be at least effective. With the running game that Georgia is bringing back this season, all you need is a guy who can get you in the right plays at the line of scrimmage and 5-10 big throws per game at the right time in the game. I hate the term, but Georgia needs a game manager this season. I don’t think any of these guys is going to win the job with excellent performance, I think we are going to see two guys lose the job by not being able to run the offense and by turning the ball over. One thing is for sure, Georgia can’t win the SEC unless one of these guys can perform better than Hutson Mason did last season.

2.       The Schedule
Every year, the schedule in the SEC is difficult, but this year, Georgia got about as bad of a draw as you can get. Georgia plays Auburn every year, so there is always going to be a strong opponent from the West on Georgia’s schedule. However, this year, Alabama travels to Georgia on October 3rd, meaning that Georgia will play the projected two best teams from the West this season.

The month of October will make or break Georgia’s season. The Dawgs open at home on the 3rd with Alabama, then travel to Knoxville to play Tennessee, before returning home to play two-time defending SEC East champion Missouri. The Dawgs close out the month on Halloween night against Florida in Jacksonville. Even the most optimistic Georgia fan would be crazy to feel confident about any of those games.

Alabama is the best coached team in the country, year in and year out, and the last time they were in Athens, they humbled Georgia on national television. Tennessee could have beaten Georgia two years ago in Knoxville if it weren’t for a fluke play in overtime. Missouri stunned the Dawgs in their only other trip to Athens in 2013, and have won the division for the last two years. Florida, well, all Georgia fans know that you can never, ever feel comfortable in Jacksonville.

November is a little better, but you still have to go on the road to both Auburn and Tech, both of whom will be in the running for their respective conference titles. There is no wiggle room in the schedule, and Georgia will have to peak in October if 2015 is going to be a season worth remembering.

3.       A Disappointing Trend
Why should Georgia fans be worried about 2015? Because Georgia has managed to lose games it should have won in each of the past, I don’t know, 15 seasons? That might be a little bit of an exaggeration, but not really.

Here is a list of bad losses, either because of the team that Georgia lost to, or the manner in which they lost, under Mark Richt:
2001: South Carolina, Auburn (clock runs out on Georgia), Boston College
2002: Florida (only loss of season)
2003: Florida
2004: Tennessee (after destroying LSU a week earlier)
2005: Florida (Shockley hurt), West Virginia
2006: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky
2007: South Carolina (didn’t score a touchdown), Tennessee (35-7)
2008: Alabama, Tech
2009: Tennessee, Kentucky
2010: Mississippi State, Colorado, Florida, UCF
2011: Michigan State (lost in overtime when we had a field goal to win in regulation)
2012: South Carolina
2013: Vanderbilt, Auburn (prayer at Jordan-Hare), Nebraska
2014: Florida, Tech

That’s right, every single year there has been at least one game that left you scratching your head or breaking your furniture, depending on your temperament. Some of the losses have been embarrassing, like any loss to Kentucky or Vanderbilt because that should never happen. Some of the losses have cost Georgia a shot at a title, like Tennessee in 2007, and Florida in 2002. Last year was probably the most obvious of all. Georgia was miles better than Florida, but they underestimated the Gators, and made no adjustments to the Florida run game, and managed to not only lose, but embarrass themselves in the process. Georgia won the Tech game. It was over. Until a bad squib kick left Tech enough time to tie the game with a field goal, and eventually win in overtime.

I have already said that the schedule is a big obstacle in 2015, so it should go without saying that Georgia can’t afford a single bad loss this season. The most Georgia thing that couldn’t happen to the Dawgs this season would be to lose to Vanderbilt and Auburn, beat everyone else, and get shut out of Atlanta and potentially the college football playoff because of a week 2 loss to a Vanderbilt team that won’t go to a bowl game.

Mark Richt must find a way to get the players up for every game, because last year was close to being special, but the entire season fell apart in Jacksonville.

4.       10 Long Years
2015 is the 10 year anniversary of Georgia’s 2005 team that won the SEC title. While the 2005 team should be remembered fondly and celebrated, you can’t think about the 2005 team without adding one little piece of information: 2015 is the 10 year anniversary of Georgia’s LAST SEC title in 2005. Since 2005, 4 SEC schools have won National titles, including 7 straight from 2006 until 2012. Since 2005, Georgia has played in the SEC title game twice, 2011 when they were blown out by LSU, and 2012, which we do not speak of.

In 2005, you wouldn’t have believed that 10 years would pass without another SEC title. Georgia had won 2 of the past 4 SEC titles, and they were, arguably, the best program in the conference. Richt was one of the, if not the, best coach in the league, and Georgia had the number one quarterback recruit in the entire country coming in for 2006. The past 10 years have been filled with disappointments and close calls, and in a business that is all about winning, Mark Richt has managed to win barely enough to keep his job. I love coach Richt and believe that he is the best coach Georgia has ever had, but the reality of major college football in 2015 is that you have to win championships to keep your job. I’m not sure an SEC title is in the cards for 2015, so the streak will probably reach 11 years, but Georgia needs to be in the conversation in November, and Richt needs to bring a conference title back to Athens soon, or Georgia will be looking for a new man to lead the Bulldog Nation.

5.       The Unexpected
A fear of the unknown seems illogical, unless you are a Georgia fan. There is no other way to say it, Georgia has had some terrible luck in recent years. Think about 2012, I know, I know, I’m breaking my own rule. Georgia was on the cusp of playing for a national title. One year later, they beat LSU and South Carolina and look to be on their way to the SEC title game again, then Gurley gets hurt. Marshall gets hurt. Michael Bennett gets hurt. Georgia manages to pull out a win in Knoxville, only to lose at home to Missouri and then on the road to Vanderbilt. Murray has the game of his life in Auburn, pulling Georgia back, nearly single handedly, only to see two freshman manage to screw up a Hail Mary to lose the game. A week later, Murray tares his ACL and his season is over.

Last year, Gurley is the best running back in the nation and on his way to the Heisman, and then he is suspended. Will he come back, won’t he come back? It drags on and on and costs Georgia the Florida game. Gurley comes back, Georgia dominates Auburn, but Gurley tares his ACL and is done at Georgia. Chubb keeps Georgia afloat all season, and the Dawgs only need to Missouri to lose to either Tennessee or Arkansas at the end of the year to go to Atlanta. A day before Georgia plays Tech, Missouri manages to beat Arkansas, clinching the East, and the next day, Georgia loses to Tech with nothing to play for.

Go back even further. Isaiah Crowell was fantastic as a freshman, then he gets busted with a gun, and Georgia loses a star player. Washaun Ealey, Caleb King, Ray Drew, Jay Rome, Nick Marshall, Josh Harvey-Clemons, Trey Matthews, Shaq Wiggins, these are just a few of the names of guys who come in with a lot of hype and or expectations who flopped big time for one reason or another. Most of these guys ended up leaving Georgia, and not because they graduated.

Nick Chubb seems humble, team oriented, and talented, but the I can’t remember the last Georgia tailback that contributed as a freshman and didn’t end up being a disappointment before leaving school. Did Musa Smith contribute as a freshman? The point is, Georgia hasn’t caught a lot of breaks when it comes to the intangibles lately. But maybe that means they are due?
I like to think I am an optimist, but there are real concerns about the 2015 team, and now I have shared them with you. We are going to focus on the positive for the rest of the preseason, but don’t be shocked if we look back in December at this list, and realize that the fatal flaw of this team was right here all along.


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