The names you will know before the end of 2015

Each year, I try to give Georgia fans a few names that they won’t know when the season kicks off, but they will know very well by the time the season is over. Sometimes I am right, and sometimes I am wrong. I’m feeling pretty confident after last season, because gave two names: Sony Michel and Nick Chubb. I liked them both, but I favored Chubb. Like I said, feeling pretty confident.

This year, I’m going to give you four names. Four players that I believe will make a huge impact on the 2015 season and beyond.

1.       Trenton Thompson: Mr. Thompson, you would call him Mr. if you met him on the street, is 6-4 311 pounds and he just turned 19 on July 27^th. Mr. Thompson is going to change Georgia’s defense this season. At one point, he was rated by Rivals as the number one player in the country, but late in the recruiting process, he was bumped to number 2. At the Under Armor All America game, one reporter asked him why he hadn’t smiled all week. Trenton answered that he wasn’t here to smile and make friends; he was here to get his number one ranking back! The moment I heard that, I loved this guy. Last season, Georgia’s defense was number 2 in the nation against the pass, giving up an average of 158.4 yards per game. Georgia had 13 interceptions and sacked the quarterback 24 times. Teams couldn’t pass against Georgia. But they could run, and run they did. Georgia’s rush defense was tied for 75^th in the nation, giving up 175.6 yards per game rushing. Georgia was 10^th out of 14 teams in the SEC in rush defense. In Georgia’s two worst losses of the season, Florida and Tech, Georgia’s rush defense was embarrassing. Florida ran 60 times for 418 yards, while Tech ran 70 times for 399. Georgia gave up 2,169 yards rushing last season and 817, nearly 38%, came in the two games against, arguably, Georgia’s two biggest rivals. Mr. Thompson will help change all of those numbers in 2015. Mr. Thompson will play nose tackle in Georgia’s 3-4 defense, which is, without question, the most important position in a 3-4 defense. The base concept of the 3-4 defense is that one, huge nose-tackle would need to be double teamed by 2 offensive linemen, leaving three linemen to block the other two defensive tackles and a blitzing linebacker coming from one of the four linebacker positions. So, in real terms, a true nose tackle means that there would be a one on one situation between a lineman and Leonard Floyd or Lorenzo Carter. Offensive lineman wouldn’t stand a chance, so teams will have to use tight ends and/or, running backs to help block, thus changing the opposing offense completely. You might not hear the name Trenton Thompson week in and week out on television, but you will read about Mr. Thompson in this blog, and you will know that when Georgia’s defense improves dramatically against the run in 2015, Mr. Thompson will be the primary reason.

2.       Terry Godwin: Wide receiver is one of the most interesting, and least talked about positions heading into the 2015 season. Godwin is a five-star athlete that Georgia was able to keep in state, something that hasn’t happened in previous years. While someone like Mr. Thompson will probably start from day one, Godwin’s role will be a little different. Georgia’s coaches would be crazy to believe that the Dawgs’ top two returning wide receivers, Malcolm Mitchell and Justin Scott-Wesley, can make it through the entire season healthy. Neither player has been healthy in their Georgia career, so odds are that at some point this season, one if not both of these guys are going to be on the bench. Georgia lost Chris Connelly, Michael Bennett, and Jonathan Rumph to graduation, so the returning starters at wide receiver don’t leave you feeling very confidant. Names like Reggie Davis, Kenneth Towns, and Shakenneth Williams are largely unknown to the Bulldog Nation because they haven’t made major contributions in their limited playing time. You will know the name Isaiah McKenzie, but his size and speed make him a perfect fit for a third, or slot receiver, leaving a potentially big hole on the outside of Georgia’s offense. Enter Terry Godwin, and to a lesser extent Michael Chigbu. Godwin will establish himself as Georgia’s top receiver before Georgia plays Florida in Jacksonville, and he will be the best receiver Georgia has had since AJ Greene.

3.       Rashad Roundtree: When Georgia was thriving under Mark Richt in the early to mid 2000’s, there was always a big name safety that would be ready at a moment’s notice to lower the boom on opposing receivers. Names like Thomas Davis, Greg Blue, and Kelin Johnson were often the leaders of the defense. Rashad Roundtree is built in that same mold. 6-1 and 205 pounds, Roundtree was recruited heavily, and chose the Dawgs over defending national champion, Ohio State. Last year, Dominick Sanders showed that freshman have the ability to make a big impact in the secondary under Jeremy Pruitt, and Roundtree will be able to do the same in 2015. I’m not quite sure where he will fit it, free safety, strong safety, nickel corner, but when he is on the field he will make an impact. The secondary is Pruitt’s specialty, and Roundtree just adds more talent to an already loaded position group.

4.       Jake Ganus: While Ganus is a name you might not know yet, but you will know by the end of the season, his story is quite different than the other three names on this list. Mr. Thompson, Rashad Roundtree, and Terry Godwin are all freshman who will have an early impact in their Georgia careers, Ganus is a senior, who will have only one season to make his mark in Athens. Ganus, 6-2, 227 pounds, is a transfer from the University of Alabama at Birmingham. He is eligible to play this season because UAB abolished their football program last year, and any former UAB player transferring was ruled to be immediately eligible. Ganus will help bridge a gaping hole in the Georgia defense. Georgia lost their top two leading tacklers from a year ago in Amarlo Herrera and Ramik Wilson, and while they have some talented freshman coming in, like Natrez Patrick and Roqaun Smith, Ganus will provide instant maturity at a position of need, inside linebacker. I think Ganus will start at inside linebacker alongside Tim Kimbrough, who saw a lot of playing time last year. If Ganus can step in and be effective against the run, he could very well help Georgia establish one of the best defenses in the nation. Another interesting angle to keep an eye on is the fact that many people believe that the University of Alabama, and Nick Saban in particular had a hand in UAB shutting down their football program. Poetic justice would be sweet for Georgia fans if Ganus, who should be a senior at UAB, has a big impact against the Tide when they come to Athens on October 3^rd. As successful as Saban has been at Alabama, his actions have backfired in a big way before: remember, he lobbied the refs are in 2013 to get one second put back on the clock so he could attempt a field goal against Auburn. We all know how that story ended. Kick-Six.

From Herschel Walker, to AJ Greene, to Todd Gurley, to Nick Chubb, first year players making an impact is nothing new between the hedges. However, with the amount of talent Georgia has been recruiting over the past two seasons, more and more we will see first year players making a real difference in the direction of Georgia’s season. If these four players have the type of impact they are capable of having, Georgia could find itself in the Dome for the SEC title game on December 5^th.

Concerns for the 2015 Season

I’ve already told you that there are a lot of reasons to be excited about Georgia in 2015, but let’s be honest; there are a lot of question marks as well. For those fans that grew up in the Vince Dooley/Larry Munson era, you are more accustomed to hearing about all of the bad things that could happen to our beloved Bulldogs than to hearing anything positive. While both Dooley and Munson loved Georgia, I’m not sure if they ever felt confident before any game against a significant opponent.

A cynical man would say that there isn’t much difference between a realist and a pessimist, but I’m not sure that I buy that. Realistic, Pessimistic, or whatever you might want to call it, here are five reasons to be concerned about the 2015 Georgia Bulldogs.

1.       Who will be the starting quarterback?

For only the third time in the 15 seasons that Mark Richt has been at Georgia, there are legitimate questions surrounding the quarterback position as fall camp starts. In 2001, David Greene and Corey Phillips were battling for the job. Obviously that battle was won by Greene and he would lead Georgia to the SEC title one year later. In 2006, there was a three man race between Joe T 3 (I didn’t want to look up how to spell his name), Joe Cox, and Matthew Stafford. That season, all three quarterbacks started for Georgia and won games for Georgia, but eventually, Stafford won the job and led Georgia to a #2 national finish a year later.

This year, the race is more wide open and a lot different. Barring some unforeseen turn of events, none of the quarterbacks on Georgia’s roster will be the starter when the 2016 edition of the Bulldogs take the field in the Georgia Dome against North Carolina next year in the Chick-fil-A kickoff game. In January, Jacob Eason will be enrolling in classes and will participate in spring practice. Eason is the quarterback of the future, and I expect him to start from day one when he gets to Georgia, so while the quarterback race this year is intriguing and important, it is for one season only.

Bryce Ramsey, Faton Bauta, and Virginia transfer Grayson Lambert will all be vying to start under center for Georgia this year. Ramsey has the most experience as he was Hutson Mason’s back up a year ago and appeared in a few games. Ramsey played the rest of the Belk Bowl after Mason’s injury and looked shaky at best. Bauta brings potentially a new wrinkle to Georgia’s offense, with his ability to run. However, it remains to be seen whether or not Bauta can be effective enough from the pocket to fit into Georgia’s Pro Style offense. The Dawgs won’t be running the spread option any time soon, and for play action to actually work, you have to be able to throw the ball down field with some sort of effectiveness. Lambert is the biggest question mark. Fall practice is his first chance to get on the field with the coaching staff. He hasn’t learned the offense and his numbers at Virginia were pedestrian at best. The biggest question for Lambert is why did Georgia want him? With Eason coming in next year and two experienced quarterbacks already on the roster, what did the coaching staff see in Grayson Lambert?

It has been proven in recent years that your quarterback doesn’t have to be the best in the nation to win a national title, but he has to be at least effective. With the running game that Georgia is bringing back this season, all you need is a guy who can get you in the right plays at the line of scrimmage and 5-10 big throws per game at the right time in the game. I hate the term, but Georgia needs a game manager this season. I don’t think any of these guys is going to win the job with excellent performance, I think we are going to see two guys lose the job by not being able to run the offense and by turning the ball over. One thing is for sure, Georgia can’t win the SEC unless one of these guys can perform better than Hutson Mason did last season.

2.       The Schedule

Every year, the schedule in the SEC is difficult, but this year, Georgia got about as bad of a draw as you can get. Georgia plays Auburn every year, so there is always going to be a strong opponent from the West on Georgia’s schedule. However, this year, Alabama travels to Georgia on October 3^rd, meaning that Georgia will play the projected two best teams from the West this season.

The month of October will make or break Georgia’s season. The Dawgs open at home on the 3^rd with Alabama, then travel to Knoxville to play Tennessee, before returning home to play two-time defending SEC East champion Missouri. The Dawgs close out the month on Halloween night against Florida in Jacksonville. Even the most optimistic Georgia fan would be crazy to feel confident about any of those games.

Alabama is the best coached team in the country, year in and year out, and the last time they were in Athens, they humbled Georgia on national television. Tennessee could have beaten Georgia two years ago in Knoxville if it weren’t for a fluke play in overtime. Missouri stunned the Dawgs in their only other trip to Athens in 2013, and have won the division for the last two years. Florida, well, all Georgia fans know that you can never, ever feel comfortable in Jacksonville.

November is a little better, but you still have to go on the road to both Auburn and Tech, both of whom will be in the running for their respective conference titles. There is no wiggle room in the schedule, and Georgia will have to peak in October if 2015 is going to be a season worth remembering.

3.       A Disappointing Trend

Why should Georgia fans be worried about 2015? Because Georgia has managed to lose games it should have won in each of the past, I don’t know, 15 seasons? That might be a little bit of an exaggeration, but not really.

Here is a list of bad losses, either because of the team that Georgia lost to, or the manner in which they lost, under Mark Richt:

2001: South Carolina, Auburn (clock runs out on Georgia), Boston College

2002: Florida (only loss of season)

2003: Florida

2004: Tennessee (after destroying LSU a week earlier)

2005: Florida (Shockley hurt), West Virginia

2006: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky

2007: South Carolina (didn’t score a touchdown), Tennessee (35-7)

2008: Alabama, Tech

2009: Tennessee, Kentucky

2010: Mississippi State, Colorado, Florida, UCF

2011: Michigan State (lost in overtime when we had a field goal to win in regulation)

2012: South Carolina

2013: Vanderbilt, Auburn (prayer at Jordan-Hare), Nebraska

2014: Florida, Tech

That’s right, every single year there has been at least one game that left you scratching your head or breaking your furniture, depending on your temperament. Some of the losses have been embarrassing, like any loss to Kentucky or Vanderbilt because that should never happen. Some of the losses have cost Georgia a shot at a title, like Tennessee in 2007, and Florida in 2002. Last year was probably the most obvious of all. Georgia was miles better than Florida, but they underestimated the Gators, and made no adjustments to the Florida run game, and managed to not only lose, but embarrass themselves in the process. Georgia won the Tech game. It was over. Until a bad squib kick left Tech enough time to tie the game with a field goal, and eventually win in overtime.

I have already said that the schedule is a big obstacle in 2015, so it should go without saying that Georgia can’t afford a single bad loss this season. The most Georgia thing that couldn’t happen to the Dawgs this season would be to lose to Vanderbilt and Auburn, beat everyone else, and get shut out of Atlanta and potentially the college football playoff because of a week 2 loss to a Vanderbilt team that won’t go to a bowl game.

Mark Richt must find a way to get the players up for every game, because last year was close to being special, but the entire season fell apart in Jacksonville.

4.       10 Long Years

2015 is the 10 year anniversary of Georgia’s 2005 team that won the SEC title. While the 2005 team should be remembered fondly and celebrated, you can’t think about the 2005 team without adding one little piece of information: 2015 is the 10 year anniversary of Georgia’s LAST SEC title in 2005. Since 2005, 4 SEC schools have won National titles, including 7 straight from 2006 until 2012. Since 2005, Georgia has played in the SEC title game twice, 2011 when they were blown out by LSU, and 2012, which we do not speak of.

In 2005, you wouldn’t have believed that 10 years would pass without another SEC title. Georgia had won 2 of the past 4 SEC titles, and they were, arguably, the best program in the conference. Richt was one of the, if not the, best coach in the league, and Georgia had the number one quarterback recruit in the entire country coming in for 2006. The past 10 years have been filled with disappointments and close calls, and in a business that is all about winning, Mark Richt has managed to win barely enough to keep his job. I love coach Richt and believe that he is the best coach Georgia has ever had, but the reality of major college football in 2015 is that you have to win championships to keep your job. I’m not sure an SEC title is in the cards for 2015, so the streak will probably reach 11 years, but Georgia needs to be in the conversation in November, and Richt needs to bring a conference title back to Athens soon, or Georgia will be looking for a new man to lead the Bulldog Nation.

5.       The Unexpected

A fear of the unknown seems illogical, unless you are a Georgia fan. There is no other way to say it, Georgia has had some terrible luck in recent years. Think about 2012, I know, I know, I’m breaking my own rule. Georgia was on the cusp of playing for a national title. One year later, they beat LSU and South Carolina and look to be on their way to the SEC title game again, then Gurley gets hurt. Marshall gets hurt. Michael Bennett gets hurt. Georgia manages to pull out a win in Knoxville, only to lose at home to Missouri and then on the road to Vanderbilt. Murray has the game of his life in Auburn, pulling Georgia back, nearly single handedly, only to see two freshman manage to screw up a Hail Mary to lose the game. A week later, Murray tares his ACL and his season is over.

Last year, Gurley is the best running back in the nation and on his way to the Heisman, and then he is suspended. Will he come back, won’t he come back? It drags on and on and costs Georgia the Florida game. Gurley comes back, Georgia dominates Auburn, but Gurley tares his ACL and is done at Georgia. Chubb keeps Georgia afloat all season, and the Dawgs only need to Missouri to lose to either Tennessee or Arkansas at the end of the year to go to Atlanta. A day before Georgia plays Tech, Missouri manages to beat Arkansas, clinching the East, and the next day, Georgia loses to Tech with nothing to play for.

Go back even further. Isaiah Crowell was fantastic as a freshman, then he gets busted with a gun, and Georgia loses a star player. Washaun Ealey, Caleb King, Ray Drew, Jay Rome, Nick Marshall, Josh Harvey-Clemons, Trey Matthews, Shaq Wiggins, these are just a few of the names of guys who come in with a lot of hype and or expectations who flopped big time for one reason or another. Most of these guys ended up leaving Georgia, and not because they graduated.

Nick Chubb seems humble, team oriented, and talented, but the I can’t remember the last Georgia tailback that contributed as a freshman and didn’t end up being a disappointment before leaving school. Did Musa Smith contribute as a freshman? The point is, Georgia hasn’t caught a lot of breaks when it comes to the intangibles lately. But maybe that means they are due?

I like to think I am an optimist, but there are real concerns about the 2015 team, and now I have shared them with you. We are going to focus on the positive for the rest of the preseason, but don’t be shocked if we look back in December at this list, and realize that the fatal flaw of this team was right here all along.

Reasons for Optimism

We have already established what the bar is for the 2015 Georgia Bulldogs. 10-2 would be a successful season. Anything better than that would be, in my opinion, an over achievement, and anything less than 10 wins would make for a third straight year of Georgia underachieving. Let me be clear, 10-2 isn’t my prediction for what I expect to happen as much as a conservative bar of what would be acceptable.

I like to think of myself as an optimist, so we will start today with reason to be optimistic for the 2015 season.

1.       Talent

This team, on the back of two consecutive, excellent recruiting classes is the most talented group of players that Georgia has ever put on the field in the Mark Richt era.

Offensively Georgia has playmakers all over the field. Chubb and Michel are the most dynamic one two punch in college football. The biggest thing new offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer will bring to the table is, hopefully, an NFL approach to the offense where you try to get your best players on the field at the same time. Chubb lined up in the backfield, with Michel, or sophomore wide receiver Isaiah McKenzie in the slot, tight end Jeb Blazevich, and two wide receivers on the outside will give Georgia so many options that any defense would have a hard time covering everyone. Obviously, Georgia’s offense is going to be run first, as always, but the ability to get quick throws in the hands of speedy guys like Michel, McKenzie, and Malcolm Mitchell, will take a lot of heat off the inexperienced quarterback, whoever he is. The forgotten part of this offense that is going to be a major strength is the offensive line. Deep and experienced, the offensive line might be the best in the SEC.

2.       Nick Chubb

Last year, Chubb was the third guy to get into the game against Clemson. By the time Chubb started getting carries late in the third quarter, Georgia was well on its way to winning the game, but the run that Chubb made down the Georgia sideline, where he ran around, and over Clemson defenders was epic. It was so epic, that you probably didn’t remember that he had stepped out of bounds on the long run and the touchdown was called back. By the middle of the season, Chubb had gone from third string to the only healthy running back Georgia had eligible to play. At Missouri, in perhaps Georgia most impressive game of the 2014 season, Chubb was a workhorse. Chubb ran for 143 tough yards on a mind-blowing 38 carries with one touchdown. If the Missouri game was his coming out party, the Arkansas game a week later was his coronation as the lead Dawg to the Bulldog Nation. 30 more carries against the Hogs for 202 yards and 2 touchdowns. By the time Chubb was finished running all over the Louisville defense in the Belk Bowl, the freshman had run for 1547 yards and 14 touchdowns. He was the first team All SEC running back and the SEC Freshman of the Year. Only one Dawg has ever run for more yards in a season than Nick Chubb ran for last year, and they ended up retiring his number 34. Chubb’s humility and team first mentality is refreshing, and seemingly genuine, you want to root for number 27, and Georgia fans should be thrilled to have him in the backfield for two more seasons.

3.       Year 2 of the Jeremy Pruitt Defense

A year ago, Georgia fans saw a significant improvement on the defensive side of the ball. Not that the bar had been set very high by the Todd Grantham disgraces that were Georgia’s defense in 2013. Last year was by no means perfect, but you have to feel that things were heading in the right direction. The most glaring problem from 2014 on the defensive side of the ball was Georgia’s inability to adjust to the run game against Florida and Tech. Both teams kept running the same play, over and over, and having success. Georgia will have to be better against the run in 2015 if they want to compete against the best teams in the league. The most encouraging aspect of the defense was the secondary. Pruitt was secondary coach at Alabama before his one year as defensive coordinator at Florida State, and his work with Georgia’s secondary last season paid big dividends. Schematically, a secondary that covers well will give the strength of Georgia’s defense, the linebackers, time to get to the quarterback without having to blitz on every play. About those linebackers, Jordan Jenkins returns for his senior season. Leonard Floyd comes back for his red-shirt junior season, and Lorenzo Carter, who might be better than either of his upper classmen counterparts, will look to build on an impressive freshman season. If Pruitt can figure out ways to get all three guys on the field at the same time, quarterbacks will be safer taking a knee, rather than risking their lives by dropping back for a pass. When Georgia was at their best under Mark Richt, in 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2012 Georgia’s defense was a big part of the team’s overall success. That would appear to be the case again. The question is, how good can this defense be this season, while still keeping Pruitt in Athens?

4.       Impact Freshman

Georgia has a talented freshman class coming in. Each year, I do a single post about the names you might not know now, but you will know by October, so you will get a lot more on the incoming freshman, but believe me when I tell you that just like last season, when Nick Chubb, Sony Michel, Isaiah McKenzie, Lorenzo Carter, Jeb Blazevich, and Dominick Sanders made big contributions as freshman, Georgia will be better because of their incoming class. It would be hard to top last year’s class, but Georgia might be able to duplicate their freshman success of 2014.

5.      Weak East

For the first 10-15 years of the SEC, the league was dominated by the Eastern Division. Obviously, the tide (no pun intended) has changed, and the West is by far the stronger of the two divisions. The coaches poll, which has already been released features 5 SEC West teams in the top 25, with the other two teams ranked 26^th and 27^th if the poll were extended. Contrastly, Georgia, Missouri, and Tennessee are the only Eastern division teams that are ranked in the preseason poll, and the Vols come in at #25. Vanderbilt is terrible, Kentucky is getting better, so they are only bad, Florida is an unknown quantity, and South Carolina has seen their best days come and go. The East is wide open, which should mean that Georgia won’t have to be perfect to win the division, but as we have seen many times in the past, strange things happen on the road to Atlanta. Missouri won the East last year despite a 30-0 home loss to runner up Georgia. Georgia won the East in 2012 despite at 35-7 loss to runner up South Carolina. Georgia lost their first two games in 2011, to Boise State and South Carolina, only to reel off 10 straight wins to win the division at 10-2. There is no way any team in the SEC is going to be undefeated this season, but I think there could be an 11-1 team coming out of the SEC East, heading to Atlanta for a shot at the playoff. The West is going to get all the hype again this season, and for good reason, but being in the East is a far better path to the College Football Playoff.

For every ying, there is a yang. Next up, I give you the reasons to worry about Georgia in 2015.