Previewing the Final BCS Title Game Ever

Critics of the BCS forget the days before it existed. Like 1997, the final year of the pre-BCS era, which ended with co-National Champions, Nebraska and Michigan. The concept of the BCS was to get the best two teams on the field at the end of the season to play for the title. Since 1998, I believe the system has worked every season except for two years.

The first is not up for debate. USC and Oklahoma played for the National title because each were undefeated, but that left out Auburn who was also undefeated. USC crushed Oklahoma in the title game, and later had to give up the title all together because of the Reggie Bush scandal. Meanwhile, Auburn has a 14-0 season on their hands with nothing to show for it.

The second time the system failed was in 2007. By the end of the season, Georgia was the best team in the country. Now most years, having two losses would eliminate you from title contention without question. But 2007 was different and there were no great teams. There isn’t a huge argument to be made, except that pollsters manipulated the rankings so Georgia wouldn’t be in the title game against LSU. Four years later, the same pollsters had no problem with two SEC schools playing for the title, of course, that was Alabama and Nick Saban, so I guess the rules are different.

Again this year, the BCS has provided us number one versus number two. Number one was really easy. Florida State has been dominate this season. They have won every game by at least 14 points, and Heisman winner Jameis Winston has only attempted 18 passes this season when the ‘Noles were trailing. Florida State’s schedule hasn’t been the most difficult in the country, but their domination is what you would expect from a great team playing a mediocre schedule.

Auburn on the other hand was not even in the title picture until November. The Tigers, much like Georgia in 2007 have gotten better as the year has progressed. By the end of the season they were in position to have good things happen to them  in the Georgia and Alabama games. Obviously there was some luck involved in those wins, but you can’t deny the fact that in both of those games, the miracles don’t happen if Auburn doesn’t stay in the game until the fourth quarter.

The best way I can describe tonight’s game is that tomorrow, everything will make sense. If Florida State comes out and blows the doors off of the Tigers, it will be obvious that Florida State is not only the best team this year, but one of the best teams we have seen in a long time. Tonight will always be seen as a coronation, and with Winston coming back next year, maybe the beginning of a dynasty.

If Auburn wins, it will be Cinderella wearing the slippers all the way back to the Planes. Just one year after going winless in the SEC, the Tigers end an improbable season with an impossible victory over an invincible team.

The problem is, I could believe either story.

I really don’t have a feel for how this game is going to go. I really believe that the game is going to come down to Florida State stopping Auburn’s running game, which is probably the most obvious statement I have made on this blog. Auburn is one dimensional, so if they can’t run, they can’t win. Florida State is balanced, but I believe there will be some rust on Winston and the Noles’ offense. If Auburn can run, even a little bit in the first half, then I think they will have an excellent chance to win the game.

I think about the Clemson game, where Florida State just came out playing at a different level. Clemson is a good team, they showed that by winning 11 games including the Orange Bowl, but on the field that night in Death Valley, the Tigers were boys playing against men. That Florida State team could win the game tonight by 30 points. However, Winston had some trouble in the first half against Duke, Miami, and Boston College. If Winston struggles at all, then I think Auburn will stay in the game, and if I were Florida State, I wouldn’t want to take my chances against Auburn in a fourth quarter game.

No one has stopped Auburn’s running game all season, so I don’t think it will happen tonight. So here’s my prediction:

Auburn 41   Florida State 35

The game ends when Florida State, attempting a last second field goal to win the game, which is tied 35-35, the snap is bad and Florida State’s holder tries to run, but fumbles. Auburn scoops the ball up, laterals 3 different times en route to scoring a game winning touchdown in the way only the 2013 Tigers can.

Enjoy the game, it’s the last one we get until August 28^th.

A Late Christmas Present: A fantastic Week 17 in the NFL

It is amazing how much is still to be decided in the last day of the NFL season. While there are teams that have clinched their playoff spot, seeding and home field advantage will be determined on the field today.

In the AFC, most of the playoff positions have been decided, but there is a four team race for the final 

playoff spot.

Denver will be the one seed and have home-field advantage. I think New England will beat Buffalo to clinch the 2 seed. Cincinnati will be the three seed, and Indianapolis will be the four seed. Kansas City has already clinched the 5^th seed, so it is important for both the Bengals and the Colts to try and get the three seed to avoid having to play the Chiefs in the first round.

The six seed is where it gets fun in the AFC. If the Ravens win they are in, but the Ravens are on the road in Cincinnati, where the Bengals haven’t lost all season. The Bengals also have seeding to play for, and a shot at a first round bye with a win, so I think they will win, eliminating Baltimore.

The Dolphins should win today. They are playing at home against the Jets and hot-seat staple Rex Ryan. However, the Dolphins looked terrible on the road last week against a bad Bills team, and I think the Jets will rally around Ryan and figure out a way to win this game for him. So the Dolphins are out.

Pittsburgh is at home and playing the Browns, but they need everyone else to lose. In my scenario, they are 

close to getting their wish. The Steelers will control this game from start to finish and put themselves in position to make the playoffs after starting the season 0-4.

However, the one thing the Steelers will need is for the Chargers to lose to the Chiefs at home. The Chargers/Chiefs game will be a 4 pm kick while the other three games that will decide the six seed all kick at 1 pm. So the Chargers will know when they take the field that they are in with a win. Even though Kansas City is a good team, they don’t have anything to play for today, and the Chargers will be extra motivated. I think the Chargers will win a close game, and break the hearts of the Steelers, who will be a tough team to beat if they get into the playoffs.

So here it is in the AFC:

  Denver

 New England

 Cincinnati

 Indianapolis

 Kansas City

 San Diego

So the wild card round will feature San Diego on the road at Cincinnati and Kansas City on the road at Indianapolis.

Confused yet?

I hope not, because the NFC is much more difficult to understand. Nothing, not the 1 seed, not a single division, and not a first round bye has been clinched in the NFC.

Let’s take it one step at a time. Seattle clinches home field and the one seed by beating the Rams today. Seattle at home against a dome team should equal a Seahawks win, so I’ll go with Seattle.

The Panthers control their own destiny for the two seed and a first round bye. All they have to do is go down to Atlanta and beat the disappointing Falcons. Atlanta has nothing to play for, except screwing up securing a top pick in the NFL Draft, so that means the Falcons will probably play well and scare me half to death. I think Carolina will pull out the win and win the division.

The Eagles will destroy the Cowboys on Sunday night football, and it has nothing to do with Tony Romo not playing. The Cowboys have a terrible defense, and there is no way they will keep Philadelphia under 30 points. With or without Romo, the Cowboys aren’t going to score that much, but at least now, Romo won’t get blamed for the Cowboys losing.

Green Bay and Chicago will play for the NFC North title and the fourth seed in the playoffs. Chicago gave up over 50 points to the Eagles last week in a game that could have put them in the playoffs. Cutler and the offense will play well, and probably score on the Green Bay defense that will be missing Clay Mathews. However, the Chicago defense is wretched. Aaron Rodgers returning to the Packers lineup will be the focus in the lead up to the game, but the key to this game will be Eddy Lacy. The rookie running back has brought balance to the Packers’ offense, and the Bears couldn’t stop the run if I was carrying the ball. Lacy will have a big day, Rodgers will throw off play action, and the Packers will make the playoffs.

The 49ers host the Cardinals today in a game of two teams that have a ton to play for. The 49ers are in the playoffs, but they could be as high as the 1 seed if they win and things fall their way. The Cardinals have to win and hope that the Saints lose to the Bucs in order to get in the playoffs. Because this game will be going on at the same time the Saints and the Bucs play, I’ll go with Arizona to win the game but miss the playoffs because I can’t see New Orleans losing to a bad Tampa Bay team in the Super Dome. This scenario will be a tough break for Arizona who will go 11-5, but miss the playoffs.

So here is my prediction on the NFC playoffs:

 Seattle

 Carolina

 Philadelphia

 Green Bay

 New Orleans

 San Francisco

As bland as the AFC playoffs look on paper, the NFC playoffs look absolutely amazing. New Orleans travels to the frozen tundra to take on Green Bay. The Saints are the better team, but can they win in the frigid climate? Meanwhile, the 49ers travel to Philly to take on the Eagles. The great 49ers defense versus the dynamic offense of the Eagles.

The backside of all this playoff talk is that tomorrow will be Black Monday in the NFL. Seven coaches lost their jobs last season, so how many will get the ax tomorrow?

No coach deserves to be fired more than Jim Schwartz in Detroit. They have talent on both sides of the ball and he hasn’t done anything with it. I think Lovie Smith would be a perfect fit for the Lions after they fire Schwartz because he knows the division and you want a proven winner with that amount of talent.

I think the Greg Schiano experiment will be over in Tampa. So that makes two.

Houston already fired their coach.

Atlanta, Buffalo, Oakland, Jacksonville, and Cleveland all had bad years, but I don’t think any of those coaches will be fired. All of those teams other than Atlanta just hired new coaches last season, so they will probably get 1 more year to get the ball rolling in the right direction. Mike Smith has been the most successful coach in franchise history, so there is no reason for the Falcons to overreact to one bad season.

I think Leslie Frazier will be out in Minnesota. Although they made the playoffs last year, it just seems like the Vikings are going nowhere fast, and wasting the best running back in the league.

The two biggest questions will surround Washington and New York.

The Redskins have been a mess going all the way back to the post game press conference after last year’s lost to Seattle in the Wild Card playoff game. Robert Griffin isn’t going anywhere but it doesn’t seem like Mike Shanahan wants him to be his quarterback. Dan Snyder will have to pay Shanahan a boat load of money to go away if he wants a new coach. I honestly don’t know what will happen here, but my guess is that Shanahan will be gone.

The rise and fall of Rex Ryan in New York has been fascinating. In the media capital of the world, Ryan was loved for his brash talk and straight forward approach when the Jets were winning playoff games. Just a few years later, the Jets are losing more than they are winning, they don’t have a quarterback, and now Ryan’s antics are being criticized. The Jets were supposed to be terrible this year, but a win today would get them to .500 and I think it would earn Rex another year.

I think I'll settle on 5 coaches being fired tomorrow, but there is usually a surprise along the way, so you just never know.

It is amazing to me how often the NFL gets it right. To be able to sit back today, watch NFL RedZone, and watch all of this drama play out is a sports fan’s dream. No matter what happens, with 15 games going on between 1 pm and 8 pm there is almost no way that today won’t be one of the best sports days of the year. Enjoy the final full week of football, because it’s going to be a long time until next September.

The Hero Deserved Better

This isn’t how the story is supposed to go.

As little boys we grow up in a culture that teaches us that the hero always prevails, gets the girl, and saves the kitty cat from the burning building while overcoming impossible odds. I have never felt so lied to as I do this morning.

Aaron Murray was the hero before he even showed up in Athens. The first time I heard about Aaron Murray was in 2008. He was an early commit to Georgia (already a good guy), but he had broken his leg during his senior season at Plant High School in Tampa, Florida. Cue hero music. Murray rehabbed and made it back from his broken leg in about 8 weeks, just in time for the state playoffs. He started for his team and lead them to a state title. This was going to be Georgia’s next quarterback.

After graduating high school early, he enrolled at Georgia in January of 2009. He took a red shirt in the 2009 season, preparing to be the starting quarterback in 2010. During spring practice in 2010 there were rumors that Murray might get beat out for the starting job by Mark Richt’s secretary’s son, but after a fateful trip to South Georgia, Zach Mettenberger was off the team, and Aaron Murray was going to get his chance.

Murray spent his freshman year running for his life on a mediocre team. AJ Greene missed the first four games of the season because of a NCAA suspension, and the young quarterback wasn’t ready to do it all by himself. Georgia suffered its first losing season since the mid 90’s in 2010, and of course there were people that wanted to blame the quarterback. All Murray had done was set every freshman passing record.

As a sophomore, Murray played spectacularly at home against South Carolina, only to see Georgia lose 45-42 because of terrible special teams. Murray then led Georgia to 10 straight victories. This is where the Murray detractors start with their lunacy. They will tell you that Georgia didn’t play anyone in 2011. The schedule was so easy anyone could have won 10 straight. In this season alone we have seen Tennessee beat South Carolina, Ole Miss beat LSU, Utah beat Stanford, West Virginia beat Oklahoma State, and Georgia Southern beat Florida (J). Winning college football games isn’t easy when you are playing on the road even against average teams. I wonder how Murray’s legacy would have been different if Georgia’s receivers would have caught some passes early in the SEC title game against LSU? With a bigger lead at half time, would Georgia been able to hold on to win? The comment you hear about 2011 is that Georgia played four good teams and lost to all of them. That might be true, but Murray played well in the South Carolina game and the bowl game against Michigan State. Georgia lost the bowl game because our kicker missed a field goal that would have won the game in overtime.

As a mature junior, Murray got off to a hot start and so did the Dawgs. Nothing went right last year in Columbia, but there was nothing right about what happened to Aaron after the game. Murray returned home to see his house vandalized by angry Georgia fans. Those fans must have missed the game while they were out buying eggs and toilet paper, because there is no way you can place that loss on Aaron. Aaron played poorly, just like everyone else. Georgia missed chances on defense to change the game, and the offensive line played as bad as possible against a very good South Carolina defense. Murray found out soon after the Carolina game that his father had throat cancer. The cherry on top. Murray responded by leading Georgia through the rest of their schedule, including a second straight victory over Florida, and back to the SEC title game. Everyone knows what happens next, so let’s just skip it.

Murray returned for his senior season to win a title. He had already set most of the Georgia passing records, but he hadn’t brought a title to Athens. This is where the hero is supposed to be rewarded for his efforts. Murray has done everything you could ask a player to do. He graduated in the middle of his junior year and started working on a graduate degree. He has never gotten in trouble off the field. He regularly gives his time to local charities, including Extra Special People, where he spends time special needs children. I’m not nominating the man for sainthood; I’m just saying that in 2013 he has been an amazing player that we can be proud of both on and off the field.

The hero needs adversity so the loss to Clemson to begin the season was ok. Murray was spectacular against South Carolina and he willed Georgia to a win against LSU. When the injuries began to pile up against Tennessee, Murray managed to pull his team over the finish line and secure a victory in overtime. You could see Murray’s disappointment at the end of the Vanderbilt game, the story hadn’t gone the way it was supposed to go.

The Auburn game was a microcosm of Murray’s career. Georgia was down early when the offensive line wasn’t playing well and the defense was having trouble stopping Auburn. Down big in the fourth quarter, Murray leads an improbable comeback, capping it off by diving into the end zone head first, determined to get the lead. Then, with Murray watching on the sidelines, the Hail Mary gives Auburn the lead again. Murray is distraught at first. Then he leads Georgia right back down the field and gives the Dawgs a chance to win the game.

Last night started out perfectly. The Georgia fans finally showed their appreciation for the best statistical quarterback in SEC history. Murray, with tears in his eyes, probably feeling justified, Murray lifted his helmet up to acknowledge the crowd’s applause. Then the show started. Murray threw four touchdown passes in the first half, and then, just before half time, he stayed down after a hit. Well, he stayed down for a second. Murray got up and winced as two guys helped him limp off the field for the final time.

There will be time later to talk about how this impacts the final two games of this season, and how it might impact next season, but for now, let’s just hope we haven’t seen the last of Aaron Murray in a Georgia uniform.

Murray didn’t get the hero ending, but he should always have our respect and appreciation. I hope he can rehab from his injury and show the NFL scouts that he is a leader that deserves a chance. I also hope that Georgia fans finally give him the credit he deserves. Aaron Murray isn’t a hero, he’s just our quarterback.

In the end though, he was the quarterback that the Bulldog Nation needed, but maybe not the quarterback we deserved.

Thanks Aaron.

GO DAWGS!