Monday, January 6, 2014

Previewing the Final BCS Title Game Ever

Critics of the BCS forget the days before it existed. Like 1997, the final year of the pre-BCS era, which ended with co-National Champions, Nebraska and Michigan. The concept of the BCS was to get the best two teams on the field at the end of the season to play for the title. Since 1998, I believe the system has worked every season except for two years.

The first is not up for debate. USC and Oklahoma played for the National title because each were undefeated, but that left out Auburn who was also undefeated. USC crushed Oklahoma in the title game, and later had to give up the title all together because of the Reggie Bush scandal. Meanwhile, Auburn has a 14-0 season on their hands with nothing to show for it.

The second time the system failed was in 2007. By the end of the season, Georgia was the best team in the country. Now most years, having two losses would eliminate you from title contention without question. But 2007 was different and there were no great teams. There isn’t a huge argument to be made, except that pollsters manipulated the rankings so Georgia wouldn’t be in the title game against LSU. Four years later, the same pollsters had no problem with two SEC schools playing for the title, of course, that was Alabama and Nick Saban, so I guess the rules are different.

Again this year, the BCS has provided us number one versus number two. Number one was really easy. Florida State has been dominate this season. They have won every game by at least 14 points, and Heisman winner Jameis Winston has only attempted 18 passes this season when the ‘Noles were trailing. Florida State’s schedule hasn’t been the most difficult in the country, but their domination is what you would expect from a great team playing a mediocre schedule.

Auburn on the other hand was not even in the title picture until November. The Tigers, much like Georgia in 2007 have gotten better as the year has progressed. By the end of the season they were in position to have good things happen to them  in the Georgia and Alabama games. Obviously there was some luck involved in those wins, but you can’t deny the fact that in both of those games, the miracles don’t happen if Auburn doesn’t stay in the game until the fourth quarter.

The best way I can describe tonight’s game is that tomorrow, everything will make sense. If Florida State comes out and blows the doors off of the Tigers, it will be obvious that Florida State is not only the best team this year, but one of the best teams we have seen in a long time. Tonight will always be seen as a coronation, and with Winston coming back next year, maybe the beginning of a dynasty.

If Auburn wins, it will be Cinderella wearing the slippers all the way back to the Planes. Just one year after going winless in the SEC, the Tigers end an improbable season with an impossible victory over an invincible team.

The problem is, I could believe either story.

I really don’t have a feel for how this game is going to go. I really believe that the game is going to come down to Florida State stopping Auburn’s running game, which is probably the most obvious statement I have made on this blog. Auburn is one dimensional, so if they can’t run, they can’t win. Florida State is balanced, but I believe there will be some rust on Winston and the Noles’ offense. If Auburn can run, even a little bit in the first half, then I think they will have an excellent chance to win the game.

I think about the Clemson game, where Florida State just came out playing at a different level. Clemson is a good team, they showed that by winning 11 games including the Orange Bowl, but on the field that night in Death Valley, the Tigers were boys playing against men. That Florida State team could win the game tonight by 30 points. However, Winston had some trouble in the first half against Duke, Miami, and Boston College. If Winston struggles at all, then I think Auburn will stay in the game, and if I were Florida State, I wouldn’t want to take my chances against Auburn in a fourth quarter game.

No one has stopped Auburn’s running game all season, so I don’t think it will happen tonight. So here’s my prediction:

Auburn 41   Florida State 35

The game ends when Florida State, attempting a last second field goal to win the game, which is tied 35-35, the snap is bad and Florida State’s holder tries to run, but fumbles. Auburn scoops the ball up, laterals 3 different times en route to scoring a game winning touchdown in the way only the 2013 Tigers can.


Enjoy the game, it’s the last one we get until August 28th.

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