Spring 2013: The Rebirth of the Atlanta Braves

Spring is a time of rebirth.  There is a sense of renewal, and there is a fresh outlook for what lies ahead.  Seemingly, the world is reborn with the warm rays of sun that begin to melt away the cold left by winter.

Rarely in the modern history of the Atlanta Braves has there been this much excitement about Spring Training.  For so long, Braves fans have known what to expect.  And for so long those expectations were met so often, that there was a sense of boredom that surrounded the franchise.

In the late 90's it seemed that the season didn't even start until October, when the sentiment of the fan base seemed to be "I'll get excited when you win the World Series, because anything less is utter failure."  Sustained excellence seemed to cast a certain malaise over the season.  Bobby Cox was a manager who believed in steadiness over 162 game season was the best way to be successful, and so the Braves went about their business in a way that at times seemed dispassionate.  Although we revere names like Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, and Cox, reverence doesn't produce excitement.

Excitement is exactly the word that surrounds the Braves heading into the 2013 season.

There were moments that had a similar feeling in the mid-2000's  when the Baby Braves, Francour, McCann, Johnson, and Langerhans brought a fresh face to the franchise.  They were new faces that had yet to produce at the level that would demand great expectations, so what we were left with was a great sense of joy in their success.

There was no doubt that the franchise was at a crossroads following the 2012 season.  After what can only be described as a heartbreaking and anger-inducing loss to the Cardinals (the team that had ended the Braves season in 2011 as well), Chipper Jones was set to retire.  Jones' career was played out over the exact span of time where the franchise went from perennial cellar-dweller to perennial champions.  Drafted in 1990 with the first overall pick, Jones would find his way to the big leagues during the end of the 1993 season, in the midst of the last great pennant race in baseball history.  Jones watched as the Braves overcame the Giants in the last weekend of the season, overcoming a 10 game deficit at the All-Star Break.

After an injury in 1994 (appropriate seeing as how the 1994 season will forever be seen as a black eye for Major League Baseball), Jones was a rookie in 1995 as the Braves won their allusive World Series.  Jones was one of the best players in baseball from 1996 on, and his team would continue to be one of the best teams in baseball over that time period.

It is often forgotten that Jones moved to the outfield for two years in the early 2000's in hopes of making the team better.  Jones had been the MVP in 1999 and it would have been easy for him to refuse to switch positions during the apex of his career, but Jones moved to left field while Vinny Castilla played third, and that was the beginning of Chipper as the leader of the franchise.  Jones roll changed over the last 10 years of his career.  From All-Star, to mentor to the Baby Braves, to Batting Champion, to wise old man, and back to All-Star in his final season.

There is no overstating the symbolism of Jones retirement.  He was the last Brave from the 1995 World Series team, now that era is over.

Frank Wren had two choices this off-season.  He could shrink away from the challenge of rebuilding the franchise, or he could embrace it.  He could have kept the same team that had been in place for the past few seasons, tried to find someone to play left-field or third base, and just ride out this team as long as he could.  I mean, they have made the playoffs two of the last three years, and the only time they missed the playoffs (2011) it took an historic collapse to come up short.

But Frank Wren took what could only be described as the complete opposite approach.  In an off-season that has been unlike any other for the franchise since 1990, Wren has completely overhauled the team and built a new machine that can win now, and win in the future.

The bold move towards the future started with the outright release of Jair Jurrjens and then the trade of Tommy Hanson.  For the past few years, it was thought that these two pitchers were going to be the foundation for the rotation for years to come.  However, each pitcher has struggled over the past two seasons.  Wren was tired of waiting, and he knew that he had some young arms that needed a chance to get in the rotation, so he got rid of them.  The biggest part of these moves will be the relief pitcher that the Braves got from the Angles in return for Hanson.  Jordan Walden will be a critical addition to what was already one of the best bullpens in baseball.

Next he went out and made the biggest free agent signing in the history of the franchise.  The BJ Upton signing was met with a mixed review from Braves fans because everyone had loved Michael Bourn so much.  But Bourn was wanting way too much money.  Upton is younger than Bourn and coming off a season where he hit 28 home runs   Bourn overplayed his hand so much that Upton actually got more money (5 years and 75 million) than Bourn got with the Indians (4 years 48 million).

The final bold move came in early January when Wren traded for Justin Upton.  Sending Martin Prado to Arizona, in the deal along with Randall Delgado and a couple of other players, the Braves acquired the former number one pick in the MLB Draft at the age of 25.  Playing along side his brother and with three years left on his contract, the Braves are primed to get the very best out of Justin Upton.  How many times can you remember a team getting an MVP caliber player in the early stages of his career with so much time left on his contract?  I'm sure it has happened before, but I can't think of it.

So now we arrive at spring, and as the flowers begin to bloom, so do the hopes of Braves country.  In a season that was going to be unlike anything the Braves have experienced in 17 years (with the absence of Chipper), Frank Wren has managed to rejuvenate the franchise in a remarkable way.

The 2013 Braves will offer a daunting lineup that will have legitimate power from the number two spot to the number 7 spot.  These Braves are going to produce more runs with their legs than any Braves team has since the days of Otis Nixon.  These Braves are going to strikeout a lot, but they are going to hit a lot too.  This Braves team is going to feature what will be, in my estimation, the best bullpen in baseball.  The question surrounding these Braves is going to be whether or not the young starting pitching staff is going to be good enough to help the Braves win the division.  The acquisition of Paul Maholm last season will be critical to provide a veteran presence, along with Tim Hudson.  Kris Medlen will be a starter for the entire season, Mike Minor is in the rotation, and Brandon Beachy will be back before July.  The starters are young, but they are talented.  Before Beachy returns, Julio Teheran will have his chance to be a regular starter in the rotation, and if he struggles the Braves have a couple of other young guys just waiting to get their shot.  A potent offense and the most athletic outfield in the majors will help the young pitching staff.

There is nothing guaranteed with this team.  If the pitching staff holds up, they can win the division and make a run in the playoffs.  If none of the Braves' hitters can find the clutch gene that Chipper Jones had, then they won't be able to score enough to win.

Either way, as spring training games begin in Florida and Arizona this week I can honestly say that I have not been this excited about a season in a very long time.  As a fan, you have to admire the work that the front office has done to put a team on the field that has the ability to win.  Fans need to support this team.  Buy tickets in April, May, and June and when the trade deadline comes around in July, if this team needs something to win, you know Frank Wren will go out and get it.  If there is one thing that this off-season has shown me, is that the Braves are committed to winning now and in the future, and as a fan, that is all you can ask for.

NFC Championship Game Preview

The Atlanta Falcons franchise has waited 47 years for this game.  True the city has hosted two Super Bowls, but never before has the home-town team played a game of this magnitude in front of it's home fans.

The San Francisco 49ers are the heavy road favorite in tomorrow's game, actually they are an historic road favorite.  Never before in the history of the NFL has there been a bigger road favorite in a conference championship game.  Which is to say that Las Vegas believes that the Falcons are the weakest team to ever host a conference championship game.  

Ugh, we get no respect.

If you have watched ESPN for more than about 2 minutes while they have been talking about this game then you know that the Falcons face a tough challenge this week.  It's not the 49er's defense, which is one of the best in the league.  It's not the 49er's coach, who has led his team to a second consecutive NFC title game.  No, the Falcons face a man who is, without a doubt, the greatest quarterback in the history of the NFL, no the world: Colin Kaepernick!

Colin Kaepernick, who, when the season started, was a back up to Alex Smith.  Colin Kaepernick who has started all of 9 games in his NFL career.  Colin Kaepernick, the quarterback of the 21st century.

 

(insert yawn here)

ESPN has outdone themselves this time.  With all of the hype they are giving Kaepernick, you kinda feel like they might have short-changed Notre Dame leading up to the National Championship game.  Kaepernick had an amazing game against Green Bay last week.  He passed for 263 yards and two touchdowns.  He rushed for a record (not a post-season record, an all time record for a quarterback) 181 yards and two more touchdowns.  It was the game of a career.  But are we really supposed to think that he is going to do it again?  

I heard one NFL analyst say this week that after looking at the tape, it seemed Green Bay didn't prepare at all for Kaepernick's running ability.  Green Bay played a ton on man defense, which made it much easier for Kaepernick to break long runs.

In Kaepernick's 9 starts this season, the Niners are 6-2-1.  His highest rushing total of the season before last week was when he rushed for 84 yards in a game against St. Louis, and he had a long of 50 yards in that game.  By the way, the Niners lost that game in overtime.  For the entire season, including games where he did not start, Kaepernick rushed for 415 yards and 5 touchdowns.  Passing wise, he is good but not great.  He totaled 10 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on the year.  Not exactly Pro Bowl numbers.

Don't get me wrong, he is a good player, but the hype has far exceeded the accomplishments.  

Meanwhile, the Falcons, the boring 13-3 Falcons, are just lucky to be here.  Atlanta was supposed to lose to Seattle last week.  All of the "experts" told you so.  Even though they were leading 20-0 at half time and 27-7 in the fourth quarter, the real story is that the lowly Falcons allowed Seattle to come all the way back and take the lead 28-27 with 31 seconds left.  That is what you are supposed to remember, that the Falcons blew the lead.  You aren't supposed to care that Matt Ryan moved the ball into field goal range for the most clutch kicker in the NFL, Matt Bryant.  You are supposed to care that Bryant made the game winning field goal and sent those pesky pelicans home for the winter.  No, you aren't supposed to care about that.

You know who does care about that?  The Seahawks.  You see, they are watching on TV just like me.

All kidding aside, this should be a very good game.  You don't make it to the NFC Championship game unless you have a great team, and both of these teams are fantastic.  The front seven on the 49ers is special, and if Justin and Alden Smith play like they are capable of playing, then Matt Ryan could have a long day.  The Falcons' defense isn't as good statistically, but they are great at forcing turnovers, and Colin The Great did throw a pick six last week against Green Bay.  

Offensively, the Falcons were built to excel in moments just like this.  They moved up in the 2011 draft to get Julio Jones so they could have the kind of dynamic offense that could overcome good defenses in the playoffs.  The Falcons have more proven weapons than any other team left in the playoffs.  

Matt Ryan is has won more games in his first five seasons in the NFL than any other quarterback in the league's history.  He has made the playoffs in 4 of his 5 seasons in the league, and Ryan has never suffered a losing season.  

I think the difference maker in this game is going to be one of the Falcons role players, Jacquizz Rogers.  Last year, the offense ran less screen plays than any other offense in the league.  New Falcons offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter has used the screen much more this season, and Rogers' role in the offense has increased accordingly.  To me it is just a matter of too many play makers on the field for the Falcons.  You only have so many guys on defense.  Are you going to cover Julio Jones one on one?  If you double team Jones does that mean that you are going to try and cover Tony Gonzalez with a linebacker?  If you use a safety on Gonzalez and double team Jones, then you are going to be putting Roddy White one on one with no help.  Even Michael Turner made a guest appearance last week against Seattle.  Turner doesn't have to dominate the game, but if he can run for 80 yards, then it is just one more thing that the Niners have to worry about.  Rogers is going to get some chances at a big play, and I think he might just be the difference maker.  

The NFL has become a league that is centered around quarterbacks and offense.  You have to play some defense, but as the Saints and the Packers proved in 2009 and 2010, defense no longer wins championships.  

My biggest concern for the Falcons heading into this game is Mike Smith.  I like Mike Smith.  I think he is the second best coach the Falcons have ever had, behind Dan Reeves.  But the way Mike Smith handled himself at the end of the Seattle game last week, makes me nervous.  There was no reason to call the final timeout with so much time left on the clock.  There was no reason to try and start playing it safe on offense in the fourth quarter, win the game 42-14 don't try and just hold on to a lead.  How many times over the years have you been watching a Falcons' game and you see a 50/50 call on the field, they show the replay and you see that the call was right, but then they show Smith, looking red-faced and stressed trying to find his challenge flag.  As soon as he throws it, you know that the challenge is going against the Falcons, but he couldn't wait until the guys in the booth took a look at the play and let him know whether or not he should challenge.  This is the biggest game in Mike Smith's coaching career, but he has to stay calm on the sidelines and not make a huge mistake that costs his team the game.  

Las Vegas says the Falcons are 4.5 point underdogs.  Take the points, but you won't need them.  You don't pick against Matt Ryan in the Dome.  ESPN says the numbers never lie, so I'll go with 34-6 in the Georgia Dome. The Falcons win the game 31-21, and advance to their second Super Bowl in team history.  I just hope someone breaks out the "Dirty Bird" this afternoon.

RISE UP!!!!

From Futility to Contender: The Makeover of a Franchise

The Atlanta Falcons will host the NFC Championship Game for the first time in the team's 48 year history.  Atlanta has been a franchise of futility throughout their history, having only 9 winning seasons between 1965 and 2007.  When you look back on the recent history of the team, it shows just how bad things have been in Atlanta.  

The entire backdrop of Falcon's football has to be set in context.  The state of Georgia is college football country through and through.  When I was growing up in the early to mid '90's there were many times that Falcon games weren't on TV because of NFL blackout rules tied to low attendance at games.  When the team struggles, people simply don't pay attention and people just don't care.  

Add to that fact that Atlanta is a city made up of people from other cities, primarily in the north eastern part of the country, and you have a lot of fans of the Giants, Eagles, Redskins, and even the Jets that live in Atlanta but will never be Falcon fans.  

Going back to the 1980's you can talk about Steve Bartkowski, but the Falcons made it to prime time when they drafted "Prime Time."  In 1989, the Falcons drafted Dion Sanders in the first round of the NFL draft and the circus truly came to town.  Sanders had been a standout at Florida State where he began calling himself "Prime Time" and "Neon Deon."  Having Sanders on the team put the franchise on the map nationally.     

In 1991, the Falcons drafted quarterback Bret Favre out of Southern Mississippi, but Favre played in only two games for the Falcons.  As the team prepared to move into the newly built Georgia Dome in 1992, they made the most infamous trade in franchise history by sending Bret Favre to the Green Bay Packers.

Over the next six years, the team lost Sanders to free agency, again fell off the national stage, and had to watch Favre win a Super Bowl in Green Bay in 1996.

Somehow, the Falcons managed to catch lightning in a bottle in 1998.  Out of no where, Jamal Anderson led the newly minted "Dirty Birds" to a 14-2 record in the regular season.  The team overcame a heart attack suffered by coach Dan Reeves, to make it to the playoffs as the number two seed in the NFC.  The Falcons won a home game in the divisional round of the playoffs against then division rival San Francisco, to advance to play the 16-1 Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship Game.  

In overtime, Morten Anderson's field goal sent Atlanta to their first Super Bowl in franchise history.  Denver would defeat the Falcons in the Super Bowl, but for the first time ever, Falcon fans had a reason to be optimistic.  

That optimism was short lived.  Jamal Anderson suffered a knee injury in Week 2, and the team fell apart.  One year after going to the Super Bowl, the Falcons finished the season 5-11.

From 5-11 in 1999 to 4-12 in 2000 the Falcons seemed to be back to being the same old losing franchise.  The team was about to be sold to Home Depot founder Arthur Blank as the 2001 NFL Draft approached.  The Falcons decided to make a splash and take a chance by moving up to get the number one pick in the draft and take Michael Vick to be their franchise quarterback.

Vick didn't play in 2001, but when he did take the starting job in 2002, he led the team to the playoffs for the first time since 1998.  Vick then did something that had never been done before.  Vick led the Falcons to a win in Green Bay over the Packers in the wild card round of the playoffs, the first ever home playoff loss for the Packers.  Even though the Falcons lost to the Eagles in the next round, there was, once again, a reason for hope.

As only the Falcons could do, they ripped the heart out of the fan base in the preseason, when Vick was injured in a game against Baltimore.  He would miss the first 12 games of the regular season, and the team inexplicably fired Dan Reeves before Vick returned to the field.  Once Vick returned, the Falcons won 3 of their last 4 games to finish the season 5-11.

The Falcons hired Jim Mora Jr. to be their new coach for the 2004 season, and Mora's new up beat approach worked well in 2004.  The Falcons were the number two seed in the NFC after going 11-5 and beat the Rams in the Georgia Dome to get back to the NFC Championship Game for the first time since 1998 and only the second time in team history.  Again the Falcons were foiled by the Eagles, but with a new coach, a dynamic quarterback, and an owner who was committed to winning at the highest level, finally, it was time for the Falcons to take flight.

Only, it wasn't.  The Falcons under achieved in 2005 and 2006 going 8-8 and 7-9 respectively.  Mora was fired after the '06 season, and Bobby Petrino, an offensive mastermind, was hired to get the most out of Michael Vick and the Falcon offense.  The Petrino hiring should have been a perfect fit, but he would never get a chance to work with Vick.

Vick was suspended for the 2007 season over dog fighting alegations.  Vick would eventually be sent to jail, and the team would part ways with him.  Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse, new head coach Bobby Petrino resigned to take the Arkansas head coaching job, and left his former players a note in the locker room as he left.

After what could be described as the worst season in the history of a franchise that had seen a lot of bad seasons, the Falcons started over completely.  A new General manager was hired, Thomas Dimitoff.  A new head coach was hired, Mike Smith.  And with their first pick in the 2008 draft, number 3 overall, the Falcons drafted their new quarterback Matt Ryan from Boston College.

In 2008 the Falcons made the playoff.  In 2009 the Falcons missed the playoffs but by going 9-7, they secured the first back to back winning seasons in the history of the franchise.  13-3 and a division champion in 2010.  Back in the playoffs in 2011.  Even though they had not won a playoff game through this time period, it was still the most sustained success the franchise had ever seen.  The Falcons were 13-3 again this year and, of course, won a playoff game last Sunday in dramatic fashion over the Seahawks.  

The point of all of this history is this: a win on Sunday against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game wouldn't be a flash in the pan, it would be the culmination of a plan that has been put into place over the past 5 years by a group of men that have dedicated themselves to the idea that this franchise can be elite.  Yes the Falcons have been to a Super Bowl before, but this would be different.  This isn't catching lighting in a bottle.  The Falcons have drafted well over the past few years to get their talent level at a place where winning isn't hoped for, it's expected.  They have taken chances by trading up in the draft to get players they believe can help them win a Super Bowl.  They traded a second round pick for a Hall of Fame tight end that others thought was in the twilight of his career four years ago.  

This version of the Falcons might have won their first playoff game last week, but success is nothing new to them.  They have the best record in the NFC over the past 5 seasons.  The national media might doubt them, the fans might be skeptical, but this team and this organization hasn't made it to this point by accident.  

The Atlanta Falcons have put themselves right where they want to be.  They are hosting the NFC Championship Game in a building where they are 34-8 in the Ryan/Smith/Dimitroff era.  They are one win away, not from a hope or a dream, but from a goal, and that might make all the difference in the world.