The San Francisco 49ers are the heavy road favorite in tomorrow's game, actually they are an historic road favorite. Never before in the history of the NFL has there been a bigger road favorite in a conference championship game. Which is to say that Las Vegas believes that the Falcons are the weakest team to ever host a conference championship game.
Ugh, we get no respect.
If you have watched ESPN for more than about 2 minutes while they have been talking about this game then you know that the Falcons face a tough challenge this week. It's not the 49er's defense, which is one of the best in the league. It's not the 49er's coach, who has led his team to a second consecutive NFC title game. No, the Falcons face a man who is, without a doubt, the greatest quarterback in the history of the NFL, no the world: Colin Kaepernick!
Colin Kaepernick, who, when the season started, was a back up to Alex Smith. Colin Kaepernick who has started all of 9 games in his NFL career. Colin Kaepernick, the quarterback of the 21st century.
(insert yawn here)
ESPN has outdone themselves this time. With all of the hype they are giving Kaepernick, you kinda feel like they might have short-changed Notre Dame leading up to the National Championship game. Kaepernick had an amazing game against Green Bay last week. He passed for 263 yards and two touchdowns. He rushed for a record (not a post-season record, an all time record for a quarterback) 181 yards and two more touchdowns. It was the game of a career. But are we really supposed to think that he is going to do it again?
I heard one NFL analyst say this week that after looking at the tape, it seemed Green Bay didn't prepare at all for Kaepernick's running ability. Green Bay played a ton on man defense, which made it much easier for Kaepernick to break long runs.
In Kaepernick's 9 starts this season, the Niners are 6-2-1. His highest rushing total of the season before last week was when he rushed for 84 yards in a game against St. Louis, and he had a long of 50 yards in that game. By the way, the Niners lost that game in overtime. For the entire season, including games where he did not start, Kaepernick rushed for 415 yards and 5 touchdowns. Passing wise, he is good but not great. He totaled 10 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on the year. Not exactly Pro Bowl numbers.
Don't get me wrong, he is a good player, but the hype has far exceeded the accomplishments.
Meanwhile, the Falcons, the boring 13-3 Falcons, are just lucky to be here. Atlanta was supposed to lose to Seattle last week. All of the "experts" told you so. Even though they were leading 20-0 at half time and 27-7 in the fourth quarter, the real story is that the lowly Falcons allowed Seattle to come all the way back and take the lead 28-27 with 31 seconds left. That is what you are supposed to remember, that the Falcons blew the lead. You aren't supposed to care that Matt Ryan moved the ball into field goal range for the most clutch kicker in the NFL, Matt Bryant. You are supposed to care that Bryant made the game winning field goal and sent those pesky pelicans home for the winter. No, you aren't supposed to care about that.
You know who does care about that? The Seahawks. You see, they are watching on TV just like me.
All kidding aside, this should be a very good game. You don't make it to the NFC Championship game unless you have a great team, and both of these teams are fantastic. The front seven on the 49ers is special, and if Justin and Alden Smith play like they are capable of playing, then Matt Ryan could have a long day. The Falcons' defense isn't as good statistically, but they are great at forcing turnovers, and Colin The Great did throw a pick six last week against Green Bay.
Offensively, the Falcons were built to excel in moments just like this. They moved up in the 2011 draft to get Julio Jones so they could have the kind of dynamic offense that could overcome good defenses in the playoffs. The Falcons have more proven weapons than any other team left in the playoffs.
Matt Ryan is has won more games in his first five seasons in the NFL than any other quarterback in the league's history. He has made the playoffs in 4 of his 5 seasons in the league, and Ryan has never suffered a losing season.
I think the difference maker in this game is going to be one of the Falcons role players, Jacquizz Rogers. Last year, the offense ran less screen plays than any other offense in the league. New Falcons offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter has used the screen much more this season, and Rogers' role in the offense has increased accordingly. To me it is just a matter of too many play makers on the field for the Falcons. You only have so many guys on defense. Are you going to cover Julio Jones one on one? If you double team Jones does that mean that you are going to try and cover Tony Gonzalez with a linebacker? If you use a safety on Gonzalez and double team Jones, then you are going to be putting Roddy White one on one with no help. Even Michael Turner made a guest appearance last week against Seattle. Turner doesn't have to dominate the game, but if he can run for 80 yards, then it is just one more thing that the Niners have to worry about. Rogers is going to get some chances at a big play, and I think he might just be the difference maker.
The NFL has become a league that is centered around quarterbacks and offense. You have to play some defense, but as the Saints and the Packers proved in 2009 and 2010, defense no longer wins championships.
My biggest concern for the Falcons heading into this game is Mike Smith. I like Mike Smith. I think he is the second best coach the Falcons have ever had, behind Dan Reeves. But the way Mike Smith handled himself at the end of the Seattle game last week, makes me nervous. There was no reason to call the final timeout with so much time left on the clock. There was no reason to try and start playing it safe on offense in the fourth quarter, win the game 42-14 don't try and just hold on to a lead. How many times over the years have you been watching a Falcons' game and you see a 50/50 call on the field, they show the replay and you see that the call was right, but then they show Smith, looking red-faced and stressed trying to find his challenge flag. As soon as he throws it, you know that the challenge is going against the Falcons, but he couldn't wait until the guys in the booth took a look at the play and let him know whether or not he should challenge. This is the biggest game in Mike Smith's coaching career, but he has to stay calm on the sidelines and not make a huge mistake that costs his team the game.
Las Vegas says the Falcons are 4.5 point underdogs. Take the points, but you won't need them. You don't pick against Matt Ryan in the Dome. ESPN says the numbers never lie, so I'll go with 34-6 in the Georgia Dome. The Falcons win the game 31-21, and advance to their second Super Bowl in team history. I just hope someone breaks out the "Dirty Bird" this afternoon.
RISE UP!!!!
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