Missouri Misery

It wasn’t supposed to go this way.

After surviving the first month of the 2013 season, Georgia was supposed to get to an easier portion of their schedule, where they could prepare to make another run at the SEC title, and maybe, a national championship.

The national title dreams ended for Georgia on Saturday with a 41-26 loss to Missouri. The loss ended Georgia’s 15 game home winning streak, made Georgia’s path to the SEC title game much more difficult, and gives Georgia fans a lot to be concerned about for the rest of the season.

The game itself was much closer than the score might appear. Georgia jumped out to a 7-0 lead in the first quarter, but then saw Missouri finish the first half on a 28-3 run. Georgia’s offensive line had a hard time protecting Aaron Murray, and Murray’s fumble lead to a Missouri touchdown that changed the game.

Late in the first half, Georgia had a chance to get right back in the game by scoring before half time, and then getting the ball to start the second half. But freshman running back Brendon Douglass fumbled inside the red zone, leaving at least three points on the table.

Aaron Murray was the first man out of the Georgia locker room after half time, and Murray lead the Dawgs all the way back within a two-point conversion of tying the game at 28 at the beginning of the fourth quarter, but that was as close as Georgia would get.

Missouri, with their backup quarterback, drove down the field, and scored a touchdown on a trick play. But a missed extra point by the Tigers left the door open for a dramatic Georgia comeback.  Murray, trying to lead the Dawgs back as he had done so many times this year, threw an interception that pretty much ended any comeback hopes.

Missouri would score again, pushing the final score to 41-26.

Now, Georgia is in must win mode for the remainder of the season. Missouri is in first place in the SEC East, having not lost yet in conference play. But the Tigers play Florida and South Carolina the next two weeks, and end the season on the road at Texas A&M. Georgia needs Missouri to lose two of those games, which is a real possibility with Missouri quarterback James Franklin out for the remainder of the season with a shoulder injury.

For Georgia, the biggest game of the season is next Saturday at Vanderbilt. It will be an 11 am local kickoff, and just as we saw this week, screwy things happen in early afternoon games. Georgia will most likely be without Todd Gurley again against Vanderbilt, leaving Georgia short on experience and talent on the road in the SEC. Not a good combination.

The expectation is that Gurley will be back for the Florida game on November 2^nd, and there is a chance that Michael Bennett will also make it back for that game. If both of those guys make it back, then Georgia has a legitimate chance to beat Florida for a third consecutive year.

A November road trip to Auburn would seem to be another huge hurdle for the Dawgs’ chances to get back to Atlanta.

So, just to sum it up, Georgia needs Missouri to lose twice, and Georgia needs to win the rest of their SEC games, and they will play for the SEC title. Nothing impossible about that scenario.

So I have told you the what, and I have told you the what now, but that information is not nearly as important as the real question. Why?

Why has a team with such high expectations fallen short? Why was Georgia able to beat South Carolina and LSU, but lost to Missouri? Why can’t Georgia seem to get over the hump and win like so many other SEC schools have for better part of the last decade?

Why?

I believe there are two reasons why this season will be remembered for what might have been. One reason that can’t be controlled, and one reason that can be controlled.

It is not making excuses to say that injuries have changed the team that Georgia had when it took the field against Clemson to start the season. You can’t convince me that a healthy Georgia team would have needed overtime to beat Tennessee last week, or that a healthy Georgia team wouldn’t have beaten Missouri in the same fashion that they beat South Carolina and LSU. Watching Georgia’s offense without Malcolm Mitchell, Justin Scott-Wesley, Keith Marshall, Michael Bennett, and most importantly Todd Gurley is like watching an infant as they try to learn to walk. They know what they are supposed to do, and they are trying so hard, but they just can’t seem to get it right.

Georgia is not the same team that they were against South Carolina and LSU, and they aren’t going to be that team for the rest of this season. We will never know what that team might have accomplished, and that is very frustrating to a fan base that so deeply longs to win on the biggest stage again. What the Georgia offense has to do now is hope you can get Gurley back sooner rather than later, and lean on guys like Chris Conley and Rantavious Wooten until some of the younger receivers can develop a better rhythm with Aaron Murray. 

You just have to hope Georgia can score enough to win.

The second answer to the question why is very simple. Georgia’s defense is not playing at a championship level. You can’t expect to outscore everyone in the SEC, especially with the injuries that Georgia is trying to overcome on offense. The defense has to do more.

After going 6-6 in 2010, Mark Richt fired his good friend and defensive coordinator Willie Martinez along with a majority of the defensive coaching staff. The message was clear, we will not accept mediocrity.

Todd Grantham was brought it to change the defensive scheme as well as the defensive culture at Georgia.

In the final years of the Willie Martinez era, Georgia was consistently missing out on the top defensive talent in the state. Guys like Eric Berry and Cameron Heyward were going to Tennessee and Ohio State instead of Georgia. The talent level on defense was unacceptable, and the play on the field was equally as bad.

Grantham has managed to get better players in his two and a half years at Georgia. Guys like Ray Drew, Josh Harvey-Clemons, and Jordan Jenkins were all big time recruits that chose Georgia.

The most frustrating thing about Georgia's defense this year is the fact that you can see just how much talent is on the field. Jenkins, Harvey-Clemons, Trey Matthews, and Shaq Wiggins all look like they could be All-SEC before their careers are over, but the defensive results don’t add up to the sum of the parts. If the talent is there, then it can only be the coaching. 

In the mid 90's Steve Spurrier said that the same caliber of players go to Georgia and Florida, but he wasn't sure what Georgia was doing with those players once they got to Athens. It feels like we are getting close to that same situation now.

Just look at the statistics.

In 2009, Georgia went 8-5 allowing 25.9 points per game. Five time during the 2009 season, Georgia gave up 30 or more points in a game, and they were 2-3 in those five games. The defense allowed an average of 126.2 rushing yards per game, and 339.4 yards per game in total offense.

In 2010, Georgia went 6-7 allowing 22.1 points per game. Georgia gave up 30 or more points four times, losing all four games. Georgia allowed 147.2 rushing yards per game and 328.5 yards in total offense.

With the firing of Willie Martinez and most of the defensive coaches, Mark Richt set the standard that those numbers, and those results were not acceptable.

In 2011, Georgia was 10-4, allowing 20.6 points per game. The rushing yards per game dropped down to 101.2 and the total yards of offense dropped to 277.2. That was Grantham’s first year as defensive coordinator. Georgia still gave up 30 or more points four times, and lost all four of those games, but it seemed like Georgia had turned a corner defensively.

In 2012, much was expected from the Georgia defense. Georgia returned most of their stars, including Jarvis Jones, Alec Ogletree, John Jenkins, and Kwame Geathers. But the 2012 defense was a disappointment. Georgia went 12-2 and only allowed 19.2 points per game. However, Georgia allowed a mind blowing 182.1 yards per game rushing and 357.8 yards per game in total offense. Georgia allowed 30 or more points in four games, and went 2-2 in those four games.

This season, the statistics are the worst that they have been in the Richt era. Through the first six games of the season, Georgia is allowing 33.7 points per game. Georgia is giving up 139.7 yards per game rushing and 399 yards per game of total offense. That’s right, 399 yards per game! Georgia has allowed 30 or more points in five of their six games this season, only holding North Texas under the 30 mark.

On third down, Georgia’s opponents are converting 44% of the time. The defense can’t get off the field, which means that they are tired and ineffective at the end of the game. Of the 202 points that Georgia has given up this season, 123 of them have come in the second and fourth quarters, which says to me that the defense is getting tired because they are on the field too much.

Want to hear something that will make you sick? Since the beginning of the 2011 season, Georgia is undefeated when they hold their opponents under 30 points. The offense hasn't been the problem during Aaron Murray's career, its been the defense. 

Now, the common excuse given is that this defense is very young and inexperienced. Had Georgia’s defense been better last year, that argument would hold more water in my mind. But the truth is that Georgia defense underachieved last year with a ton of experienced players, and Georgia’s defense is bad this year with young players. Even the 2011 season could be seen as a bit of an aberration. Georgia lost to the four best teams they played that year, giving up more than 30 points per game in each of those games. In Georgia’s ten wins in 2011 they played no ranked teams, so maybe the defense wasn’t really that good, Georgia’s opponents were just that bad.

I don’t want to be dismissed as one of those people that want to fire a coordinator every time the team loses. 

Even if Georgia would have managed to win yesterday, the defense would still be a major concern. Georgia could very well run the table, make it to the SEC title game, and even win the SEC title, and the defense would still be a huge concern if no improvement is made.

By Mark Richt’s own standards that he set for the defense following the 2010 season, Todd Grantham is not getting the job done. I believe Grantham should have the next six games to save his job. If Grantham can’t get these young players to get any better over the next six games, then why would we think he will help them get better before next season?

I don’t know if the problem is the scheme, the players, the coaching, or just a series of unfortunate events, but the fact is that Todd Grantham is being paid about a million dollars a year to coach the defense, and the defense stinks.

Of Georgia’s six remaining games, only Georgia Tech and Auburn could be considered to have formidable offenses. Even Florida, who is a good team, struggles mightily on offense. Of course, Tennessee had the worst offense in the SEC coming into last week’s game against Georgia, and the Georgia defense made Justin Worley look like Peyton Manning in the fourth quarter.

It’s been a long time since 1980. I wasn’t even born yet. And with the loss to Missouri yesterday, it will be at least one more year before Georgia can bring a national title back to the Bulldog Nation. I will always remember 2013 as a missed opportunity for Georgia football, even if we manage to win the SEC. Injuries are a part of sports, and sometimes you just have bad luck when the injury bug bites, but Georgia has a defense that is becoming a cancer to any dreams of a national championship. Mark Richt stepped up once and said that Georgia wouldn’t accept anything other than excellence; he will have to do it again if Todd Grantham can’t turn this defense around over the next 7 weeks. 

Georgia/Tennessee Preview

Mark Richt was hired to beat Tennessee. Ray Goff never did it. Jim Donnan only did it once. From 1989 until 1999, Georgia never beat Tennessee.

It was bad enough during those years that Florida became a national power under Steve Spurrier. Georgia only beat Florida once in the 90’s, but that was still once more than Georgia beat Tennessee in the 90’s. Even in 1997, when Georgia managed to beat Florida, the Dawgs missed out on the SEC title game because they lost to Tennessee.

October 6, 2001 is a day that changed the trajectory of both Georgia and Tennessee. Georgia traveled to Knoxville to take on a Top 10 Tennessee team, having already lost to South Carolina in the month of September. Mark Richt was in his first year at Georgia, and the new head coach was looking for a signature win, but it wasn’t going to be this week. Georgia hadn’t won a game in Knoxville since 1980. That’s right, it had been 21 years and three coaches since Georgia won in Neeland Stadium.

It just so happens that some of Larry Munson’s most famous calls come when Georgia wins in Knoxville. In 1980, Munson painted the first picture of Herschel Walker for Georgia fans as he was running over people. 

“Oh, you Herschel Walker!” and “My God, a freshman!”

October 6, 2001 would provide another magical moment from the mighty Munson.

After Tennessee scored a late touchdown to retake the lead, freshman quarterback David Greene drove Georgia down into the Tennessee redzone. With under a minute to play, Greene found fullback Veron Haynes in the back of the Georgia endzone for one of the most improbably Georgia victories of all time.

“We just stepped on their face with a hobnail boot and broke their nose. We just crushed their face.”

The history of Georgia football changed that day. So too did the history of Tennessee football. \

Georgia would go on to be an average 8-4 in 2001, and even lost the Music City Bowl to Boston College. But in 2002, Georgia would go 13-1, win their first SEC title since 1982, and finish number 3 in the nation. Georgia has since won another SEC title, played in five SEC title games, and finished number 2 nationally at the end of the 2007 season, despite missing out on the SEC title game that season.

Since 2001, Georgia has had 8 seasons where they have won 10 or more games, and the Dawgs have become a national power.

For Tennessee, the 2001 season would continue despite the loss to Georgia. The Vols ran the table after Georgia, and sat in perfect position to play for the National Championship in 2001. All that stood between Tennessee and the title game, was Nick Saban and LSU. Uh oh.

LSU upset Tennessee in the SEC title game. Tennessee made the title game again in 2007, but again they lost to LSU. The Vols have won 10 games only three times since 2001, and with the hiring of Butch Jones in the off season, they have had four head coaches in five years.

After not beating Tennessee at all in the 90’s and not winning in Knoxville between 1980 and 2001, Mark Richt has turned the tide against the Vols. Georgia is 5-2 in Knoxville under Richt. Overall, Georgia is 9-4 against Tennessee in the Mark Richt era.

However, there is history that would support Georgia fans being a bit nervous about playing Tennessee tomorrow.

In 2004, Georgia won a huge game against LSU between the hedges, only to fall a week later to an inferior Tennessee team. Georgia missed out on their third consecutive SEC title game in 2004 because of that loss to Tennessee.

In 2007, a one loss Georgia team traveled to Knoxville and laid down one of the worst performances of the Richt era in a 35-7 loss. Georgia would need a game winning field goal to survive at Vanderbilt a week later to avoid a complete meltdown. However, just three weeks after losing 35-7 to Tennessee, Georgia stormed the field following Knowshon Moreno’s first quarter touchdown against Florida en route to a huge win. Georgia would run the table in 2007, blacking out Auburn on the way. At the end of the regular season, Georgia was playing as well as any team in the country. However, because of the loss to Tennessee, Georgia would miss out on playing LSU in the SEC title game. Despite being ranked higher than LSU going into championship Saturday, voters moved LSU, the conference champion, ahead of the Dawgs in the final polls, allowing the Tigers to play for and win the National title. All because of a loss to Tennessee.

The path to the SEC title has opened up perfectly for Georgia following the Dawgs’ dramatic 44-41 victory over LSU last Saturday. Georgia stands undefeated in the league, with their two toughest league games behind them. Florida’s offense doesn’t seem to be able to score enough to stay with Georgia, and Vanderbilt isn’t the same team they were the past couple of years under James Franklin.

But Bulldog fans can take nothing for granted traveling to Knoxville.

When you look at the 2013 version of these two teams, there is no doubt that this is a miss-match on paper. Georgia has one of the best offense’s in the country, while Tennessee’s defense allowed 24 points to South Alabama last week in Knoxville.

Defensively, Georgia has struggled to stop teams like Clemson, South Carolina, and LSU, but Tennessee’s offense is 112^th out of 120 teams in the FBS in passing yards per game. Tennessee does average more than 200 yards per game on the ground, but Georgia’s defense has shown in the past two weeks that they are capable of slowing down the running game.

It doesn’t look like Todd Gurley is going to play Saturday, so I guess that would leave room for the most optimistic Vol fans to believe that Tennessee has a chance in this game, but I doubt it.

It might be a little sloppy, but Georgia will pull away in the second half.

I think Butch Jones is a great coach, and it scares me to death to think that he might be able to get things turned around at Tennessee, but not this year. Georgia has too much talent, too much depth, and honestly too much to play for to lose this game.

Georgia 42   Tennessee 20

GO DAWGS!

NLDS Preview

It takes a lot to get me talking about anything but football this time of the year, but the Braves winning a division championship and heading to the playoffs gets my attention.

I was on record that I was more excited about this baseball season than I had been in a very long time. I thought the Braves would make it back to the playoffs, but I honestly didn’t think they would be able to beat the Nationals for the division title. Not only did the Braves dominate the eastern division, and the Gnats in particular, but now they are back where they spent so much of the ‘90s and early 00’s, in the hunt for a World Series title.

It only seems appropriate that the opponent for the Braves is the Los Angeles Dodgers. Throughout the history of the organization, it seems like it has always been the Dodgers that the Braves needed to get by.

When the franchise moved from Boston in Milwaukee in the 1950’s, the team to beat in the National League was the Brooklyn Dodgers. In 1956, led by Hank Aaron, Eddie Mathews, and Warren Spahn the Braves came within one game of going to the World Series (in those days there were no playoffs, so the best team in each league went directly to the World Series), the team that beat them was the Brooklyn Dodgers.

In 1957, the Braves would get over the hump, beat the Dodgers for the National League title, and go on to win the World Series over the Yankees. The Braves won the National League again in 1958, but would lose to the Yankees after having a big lead early in the Series. In 1959, the Braves and the Los Angeles Dodgers would finished tied for the National League Championship, but the Dodgers won the best of three playoff 2-0, to advance to the World Series.

After moving to Atlanta in 1966 and struggling for the majority of the 1970’s, the Braves found their way back to the playoffs behind NL MVP Dale Murphy in 1982. The Braves won the NL West by just one game, over the Los Angeles Dodgers. One year later, it was the Dodgers returning to the playoffs by beating out the Braves by three games in the NL West.

Of course, everyone knows that the Braves run of dominance began in 1991. What you might have forgotten is that the Braves only won the division by a single game, over the Los Angeles Dodgers. After the 1991 season, the Dodgers fell on some harder times, and following the 1994 season, MLB realigned the divisions, moving Atlanta from the NL West to the NL East (because apparently it took them almost 30 years to look at a map).

The rivalry disappeared following the 1994 season. All of a sudden, the Braves  divisional opponents like the Mets and Phillies were their biggest rivals, while the Braves only played the Dodgers 6 or 7 times a year.

In 1996, the two teams did meet in the NLDS, but the Braves swept away the Dodgers in three straight en route to their 4^th World Series appearance in 5 years. Since 1996, the Braves and Dodgers haven’t played in the post season. In a way, the rivalry had disappeared all together, that is until this summer.

The Braves/Dodgers rivalry came back in a very unexpected way just before the All-Star Game this year, with the fan vote to name the last member to the NL All-Star Team. Yasiel Puig was the darling of the national media, and was, in the media’s opinion, the obvious choice to win the final vote, but Braves Country had another thing in mind. Freddie Freeman, who should end up in the Top 3 in NL MVP voting, shocked the media by winning the fan vote over Puig.

Game on!

Ok so that isn’t really a big deal, but for both of these teams, the playoffs were exactly where they expected to be.

The Dodgers decided to become the Yankees of the National League and just start buying up each and every free agent they could get their hands on. They took on millions of dollars in salaries last season by trading for Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, and Josh Beckett. They signed Game 2 starter Zack Greinke to a huge contract that is paying him 21 million dollars this year alone. Just because of the money they have spent on this team, there is an enormous amount of expectations to win and win now.

For the Braves, it has been 3 years since they fell short against the San Fransisco Giants in their last true playoff appearance. The Braves missed the playoffs in 2011 after an historic September collapse, and I don’t speak of what happened last year on October 4^th.

In a five game series, it is almost impossible to overstate the importance of Game 1. Of course, teams have come back from losing game one, to win the series, but the loser of Game 1 automatically goes into panic.

The Braves have a huge problem in Game 1: Clayton Kershaw. The left-hander will win the Cy Young Award for the NL this season, and even though he was only 16-9 on the season, his ERA of 1.83 tells you just how good he is. Opponents are batting under .200 against him for the season (so BJ Upton should feel right at home!). Even though the Braves played the Dodgers 7 times this season, this will be the first time they have seen Kershaw in 2013.

The only chink in the armor of Kershaw is that he hasn’t had much success in the playoffs. He has started two games, with a 0-1 record in those games. In 5 total appearances in playoff games, Kershaw has an ERA of 5.87. In those games he has given up 15 hits and 10 runs in the 15.1 innings he has pitched.

Now the last one of those appearances was in 2009, before Kershaw became the dominant starter he  is now, but he still hasn’t tasted playoff success.

The Braves counter Kershaw with Kris Medlen, who’s one career post-season start is one more than Mike Minor and Julio Teheran have combined. Medlen was lights out in September for the second straight year, and his aggressive style will give him the chance to go toe to toe with Kershaw.

Most of the national media likes the Dodgers to win this series, but I think the Braves are going to make it closer than people think. The Braves have been fantastic at home in 2013, and they have the home-field advantage in this series.

With Jason Heyward back in the lineup for the Braves, the offense should be able to produce runs better than it did for most of the month of September, while Heyward was out with a broken jaw.

I think the Braves have a huge advantage in this series with their bullpen, and I think the advantage the Dodgers have in the starting pitching department is way overblown.

You are going to hear a lot about how young and inexperienced the Braves starters are. Yes they are young, and yes they are inexperienced, but neither of those attributes compare to the thing the Braves’ starters do have, which is talent.

Medlen is a fighter, he is going to give you a chance to win Game 1. Minor reminds me so much of Tom Glavine it isn’t funny. His demeanor on the mound, his early game struggles, and his stubbornness are all attributes that will serve him well in the high pressure situation of playoff baseball. Julio Teheran has the best stuff on the team, outside of Kimbrel, so I think he has a fantastic matchup in Game 3.

Just think about 1991. Did Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, or Steve Avery have any post-season experience? Nope. And the Braves were one Lonny Smith brain fart away from winning the World Series.

The thing about post season success is that you never have it, until you do. These guys can start writing their own career stories over the next few days.

Obviously I want the Braves to win, but I genuinely believe they have a shot in this series. I spoke earlier about Game 1, and the importance it has. I think Game 1 is much more important to the Dodgers than the Braves. The Dodgers have their ace going in Game 1, and if the Braves can manage to beat him, then I think the series is over.

Baseball is a funny game. You play 162 games throughout the regular season to figure out who the best team is, then you need to win 11 games in 3 ½ weeks to prove that you are as good seemed over a 6 month period of time.

Predicting the outcome of these post-season series is almost impossible, but I like this Braves team. I like the fire they play with. I like the arm they have in the back of the bullpen. I like their ability to change the game with one swing of the bat. I like that they have a 15 million dollar second basemen sitting at home, because they don’t think he gives them the best chance to win.

At least for the next few days, let’s just enjoy watching our Braves back in the playoffs, where they should be. The Braves have the youngest team in Major League Baseball. I doubt they are going to win 14 straight division titles again, but this is definitely the beginning of a run.

And if you want some history that would favor the Braves, there is a chance that we could see a Braves/Pirates matchup in the NLCS… and Sid Bream thought his 15 minutes were up.

GO BRAVES!