NLDS Preview

It takes a lot to get me talking about anything but football this time of the year, but the Braves winning a division championship and heading to the playoffs gets my attention.

I was on record that I was more excited about this baseball season than I had been in a very long time. I thought the Braves would make it back to the playoffs, but I honestly didn’t think they would be able to beat the Nationals for the division title. Not only did the Braves dominate the eastern division, and the Gnats in particular, but now they are back where they spent so much of the ‘90s and early 00’s, in the hunt for a World Series title.

It only seems appropriate that the opponent for the Braves is the Los Angeles Dodgers. Throughout the history of the organization, it seems like it has always been the Dodgers that the Braves needed to get by.

When the franchise moved from Boston in Milwaukee in the 1950’s, the team to beat in the National League was the Brooklyn Dodgers. In 1956, led by Hank Aaron, Eddie Mathews, and Warren Spahn the Braves came within one game of going to the World Series (in those days there were no playoffs, so the best team in each league went directly to the World Series), the team that beat them was the Brooklyn Dodgers.

In 1957, the Braves would get over the hump, beat the Dodgers for the National League title, and go on to win the World Series over the Yankees. The Braves won the National League again in 1958, but would lose to the Yankees after having a big lead early in the Series. In 1959, the Braves and the Los Angeles Dodgers would finished tied for the National League Championship, but the Dodgers won the best of three playoff 2-0, to advance to the World Series.

After moving to Atlanta in 1966 and struggling for the majority of the 1970’s, the Braves found their way back to the playoffs behind NL MVP Dale Murphy in 1982. The Braves won the NL West by just one game, over the Los Angeles Dodgers. One year later, it was the Dodgers returning to the playoffs by beating out the Braves by three games in the NL West.

Of course, everyone knows that the Braves run of dominance began in 1991. What you might have forgotten is that the Braves only won the division by a single game, over the Los Angeles Dodgers. After the 1991 season, the Dodgers fell on some harder times, and following the 1994 season, MLB realigned the divisions, moving Atlanta from the NL West to the NL East (because apparently it took them almost 30 years to look at a map).

The rivalry disappeared following the 1994 season. All of a sudden, the Braves  divisional opponents like the Mets and Phillies were their biggest rivals, while the Braves only played the Dodgers 6 or 7 times a year.

In 1996, the two teams did meet in the NLDS, but the Braves swept away the Dodgers in three straight en route to their 4^th World Series appearance in 5 years. Since 1996, the Braves and Dodgers haven’t played in the post season. In a way, the rivalry had disappeared all together, that is until this summer.

The Braves/Dodgers rivalry came back in a very unexpected way just before the All-Star Game this year, with the fan vote to name the last member to the NL All-Star Team. Yasiel Puig was the darling of the national media, and was, in the media’s opinion, the obvious choice to win the final vote, but Braves Country had another thing in mind. Freddie Freeman, who should end up in the Top 3 in NL MVP voting, shocked the media by winning the fan vote over Puig.

Game on!

Ok so that isn’t really a big deal, but for both of these teams, the playoffs were exactly where they expected to be.

The Dodgers decided to become the Yankees of the National League and just start buying up each and every free agent they could get their hands on. They took on millions of dollars in salaries last season by trading for Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, and Josh Beckett. They signed Game 2 starter Zack Greinke to a huge contract that is paying him 21 million dollars this year alone. Just because of the money they have spent on this team, there is an enormous amount of expectations to win and win now.

For the Braves, it has been 3 years since they fell short against the San Fransisco Giants in their last true playoff appearance. The Braves missed the playoffs in 2011 after an historic September collapse, and I don’t speak of what happened last year on October 4^th.

In a five game series, it is almost impossible to overstate the importance of Game 1. Of course, teams have come back from losing game one, to win the series, but the loser of Game 1 automatically goes into panic.

The Braves have a huge problem in Game 1: Clayton Kershaw. The left-hander will win the Cy Young Award for the NL this season, and even though he was only 16-9 on the season, his ERA of 1.83 tells you just how good he is. Opponents are batting under .200 against him for the season (so BJ Upton should feel right at home!). Even though the Braves played the Dodgers 7 times this season, this will be the first time they have seen Kershaw in 2013.

The only chink in the armor of Kershaw is that he hasn’t had much success in the playoffs. He has started two games, with a 0-1 record in those games. In 5 total appearances in playoff games, Kershaw has an ERA of 5.87. In those games he has given up 15 hits and 10 runs in the 15.1 innings he has pitched.

Now the last one of those appearances was in 2009, before Kershaw became the dominant starter he  is now, but he still hasn’t tasted playoff success.

The Braves counter Kershaw with Kris Medlen, who’s one career post-season start is one more than Mike Minor and Julio Teheran have combined. Medlen was lights out in September for the second straight year, and his aggressive style will give him the chance to go toe to toe with Kershaw.

Most of the national media likes the Dodgers to win this series, but I think the Braves are going to make it closer than people think. The Braves have been fantastic at home in 2013, and they have the home-field advantage in this series.

With Jason Heyward back in the lineup for the Braves, the offense should be able to produce runs better than it did for most of the month of September, while Heyward was out with a broken jaw.

I think the Braves have a huge advantage in this series with their bullpen, and I think the advantage the Dodgers have in the starting pitching department is way overblown.

You are going to hear a lot about how young and inexperienced the Braves starters are. Yes they are young, and yes they are inexperienced, but neither of those attributes compare to the thing the Braves’ starters do have, which is talent.

Medlen is a fighter, he is going to give you a chance to win Game 1. Minor reminds me so much of Tom Glavine it isn’t funny. His demeanor on the mound, his early game struggles, and his stubbornness are all attributes that will serve him well in the high pressure situation of playoff baseball. Julio Teheran has the best stuff on the team, outside of Kimbrel, so I think he has a fantastic matchup in Game 3.

Just think about 1991. Did Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, or Steve Avery have any post-season experience? Nope. And the Braves were one Lonny Smith brain fart away from winning the World Series.

The thing about post season success is that you never have it, until you do. These guys can start writing their own career stories over the next few days.

Obviously I want the Braves to win, but I genuinely believe they have a shot in this series. I spoke earlier about Game 1, and the importance it has. I think Game 1 is much more important to the Dodgers than the Braves. The Dodgers have their ace going in Game 1, and if the Braves can manage to beat him, then I think the series is over.

Baseball is a funny game. You play 162 games throughout the regular season to figure out who the best team is, then you need to win 11 games in 3 ½ weeks to prove that you are as good seemed over a 6 month period of time.

Predicting the outcome of these post-season series is almost impossible, but I like this Braves team. I like the fire they play with. I like the arm they have in the back of the bullpen. I like their ability to change the game with one swing of the bat. I like that they have a 15 million dollar second basemen sitting at home, because they don’t think he gives them the best chance to win.

At least for the next few days, let’s just enjoy watching our Braves back in the playoffs, where they should be. The Braves have the youngest team in Major League Baseball. I doubt they are going to win 14 straight division titles again, but this is definitely the beginning of a run.

And if you want some history that would favor the Braves, there is a chance that we could see a Braves/Pirates matchup in the NLCS… and Sid Bream thought his 15 minutes were up.

GO BRAVES!