For two teams playing for the 122nd time, you
wouldn’t think it would be possible for something to be happening for the first
time, but that is exactly the case on Saturday when Georgia takes on Auburn for
the SEC Championship.
There are a few firsts for this game. It will be the first
time the SEC Championship is played in the brand new Mercedes-Benz Stadium. It
will be the first time cross-divisional rivals have ever squared off for the
SEC Championship. It will also be the first time in the college football playoff
era that the SEC Championship Game will serve as a sort of National
Quarterfinal.
Georgia leads the all-time series 57-56-8, but it was just
three weeks ago that Auburn throttled Georgia on the Plaines 40-17.
There are four things that will be different on Saturday
from the first meeting and I think they all favor Georgia.
First, the home field advantage that Auburn enjoyed three
weeks ago will not be present in Mercedes-Benz. I think it will probably be
60-40 Georgia-Auburn, but even if it is 50/50, the Auburn defense won’t have
nearly the advantage that it did at Jordan-Hare.
Second is the health of Kerryon Johnson. It has been
announced that Johnson could be a game-time decision on Saturday. I fully
expect Johnson to play, but how effective he will be will go a long way in
deciding who wins the game. As well as the Auburn offense is playing, it relies
on Johnson running the ball to keep the defense honest and open up the passing
game. A one-dimensional offense against Georgia’s defense is a recipe for
failure.
Third is that the coaching staffs for each team have seen
what the other team has, and now can make adjustments. I’ll take Kirby Smart
1000 times over Gus Malzahn. No offense to Malzahn, but we have seen his teams
be inept many, many times over the years. He is a good coach with a great
system that is nearly unstoppable when it is working, but I haven’t seen him be
able to come up with a plan B in all his time at Auburn.
Fourth are the stakes. As I said before, the winner of this
game goes to the playoff, while the loser will have to dream of what might have
been. I can honestly say that this season has been an overwhelming success for
Georgia, no matter what happens on Saturday. For a team that lost 5 games a
year ago, two of those games being against Vanderbilt and Tech at home, this
year has been a great turn around. Georgia won at Notre Dame for the first time
in school history. They defeated three of their biggest rivals, Tennessee,
Florida, and Tech by a combined score of 121-14. They won the SEC East for the
first time in 5 years, by going undefeated in the division for the first time
ever.
Auburn has to win on Saturday to make this a successful
season. Think about that. In the past three weeks, the Tigers have defeated the
number one team in the country twice, but none of it will matter without
another victory. Auburn’s two early season losses make it where the Tigers’ are
in a unique position. Win and it could be the greatest 4 week span in the
history of college football. Lose and this team will be 10-3, and largely forgotten.
That’s amazing.
When you look at what Auburn is as a program, you realize
that their reputation is better than the teams they put on the field. Since
2007, the Tigers have averaged 4.8 losses per season! In that time, they have
lost less than 4 games only twice. So why do we perceive them as a national
power? Because the two times they lost less than four games they either played
for or won the National Championship. Auburn is the best team in the nation at
cashing in on limited opportunities. Meanwhile, the Mark Richt era at Georgia
was defined completely by not cashing in. 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2012. All
seasons where Georgia was in the hunt for a championship and talented enough to
win it all, but they always managed to lose that one game that put them out of
the title race. The one aspect of this game that favors opportunistic Auburn is
that this is the exact type of season where they cash in.
There is one more factor about this game that can’t be
ignored. Multiple media outlets are reporting that if Auburn loses this game,
Gus Malzahn will be resigning and taking the Arkansas job. I had a friend ask
me last weekend what I thought about those rumors and I dismissed them
completely because it makes no sense to me. However, this seems to be real. Can
you imagine a situation where by Monday, a team that has had the success the
Tigers have had over the past month could be out of the playoff and looking for
a new coach?
So on the field, what has to change for Georgia to win the
SEC and make the playoff?
If I were numbering these, 1-100 would be that the offensive
line has to, what do they call it these days…. BLOCK!!!!
Georgia couldn’t run the ball in the first game. Georgia
couldn’t throw the ball in the first game. If you can’t run the ball, and you
can’t throw the ball, there is no chance that you can score. If you can’t
score, you can’t win. See, it’s really not that complicated.
Georgia has moved Ben Cleveland to right guard which has
made the offensive line look better the past two weeks against Kentucky and
Tech, but the real test for this line will be whether or not they can be
effective against the Tigers.
Georgia also needs to eliminate the stupid mistakes. Georgia
has struggled with penalties this season at times, but the mental mistakes made
against Auburn were totally out of character for this team. Dropped punts. Kung
Fu kicks when trying to rush the punter. Personal fouls on late hits out of
bounds. All of these things extended drives and led to points for Auburn in the
first game. Despite the fact that Auburn scored 40 points in the first meeting,
Georgia’s defense played fairly well in the first game, but any defense that is
sent back on the field two times after what should have been 3 and outs, is going
to get demoralized and eventually break.
The one aspect of Georgia’s defense that will need to improve
from the first game is tackling. There were far too many yards after contact
for Kerryon Johnson. However, the worst part was terrible tackling by the
Georgia secondary that allowed too many extra yards on Auburn passing plays. If
Georgia tackles better against Auburn, the defense can dominate this game.
Georgia can’t be bland on offense. Too many times in the
first game, Georgia ran the ball unsuccessfully on first and second down only
to have either an incompletion or more often a sack on third down leading to a
punt. Georgia has absolutely nothing to lose in this game and I want to see an
offensive attack that understands this fact. Throw it on running downs. Run
some draws. There are these pass plays called screens, they work some times. If
you call a trick play, make sure you block the defensive line.
Georgia has, in my opinion, five players who are threats to
score every time they touch the ball. Chubb, Michel, Swift, Hardman, and Wims.
Those guys need to have the ball in their hands on nearly every offensive play.
They need to all be on the field together and Georgia needs to attack this
Auburn defense, rather than try to out-muscle them the way they did on the
Plaines.
Can Georgia really make all these adjustments in just a few
short weeks? Can they put a stop to Auburn’s dream run? I honestly don’t know.
But I know one thing. I am excited to be in the position to find out.
This time last year, we were getting ready to not watch a
crappy Florida team get destroyed by Alabama. This season, we are one win
against a team that we have dominated for a decade away from the College
Football Playoff.
Get used to this Georgia fans. This isn’t just our present,
this is our future.
Go Dawgs!
Great read Jamie...Go Dawgs!!!!
ReplyDeleteGreat read Jamie...Go Dawgs!!!!
ReplyDeleteOn Gus changing jobs. Alma Mater.The lure is hard to turn down. Don't forget the Jerry Jones factor. If he gets behind it money will bring Gus to Arkansas.
ReplyDeleteIt makes sense from that standpoint, just hard to get my mind around taking a more difficult job where you will be less successful because you want to go home.
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