No Middle Ground in 2017

Expectations. They are the curse of college football. For the past few seasons, one of my first blogs each year is about how expectations can ruin a great college football season.

If you are a Vanderbilt fan, and you expect to win the SEC, then you are setting yourself up for disappointment.

This is not that blog. Unfortunately, for Georgia fans, this season sets up to be either one of the best seasons Georgia has enjoyed in a very long time, or a complete and total disaster. I’m sorry, but there is no in between this year.

Why is that?

Well, there are three factors that I believe should be considered when looking at a team’s expectations for the coming season. Schedule, returning talent, and coaching. Not exactly rocket science.

So looking towards 2017, and specifically looking at those three factors, how do things stack up for Georgia?

Let’s start with returning talent. Georgia had one player leave early, Isaiah McKenzie. Which means Georgia returns it’s top two running backs, Chubb and Michel, it’s defensive leader, Dom Sanders, and two starters at linebacker, Lorenzo Carter and Davin Bellamy. All of those players could have gone to the NFL, but they all came back, which means this team should have plenty of leadership from its senior class.

The only position group that suffered significant losses was the offensive line, which could be addition by subtraction seeing as how the offensive line was the Achilles’ heal of last year’s team. When you factor in the number three recruiting class in the nation, it is completely fair to say that Georgia is the most talented team in the SEC East, which would mean that from a talent stand point, expectations should be high.

While I will go into great detail about the schedule in the next couple of weeks, let me give you a quick overview. The schedule is as easy as it can ever get at Georgia, which is not to say that the schedule is easy, but relatively speaking, Georgia’s schedule is incredibly manageable.

Georgia draws Mississippi State out of the West this year, and they get the Bizarro Bulldogs at home. Georgia has to travel to Notre Dame in week 2, but the Irish only won 4 games last season. Navy, Duke, and Virginia Tech all won at Notre Dame last year, so let’s not make it like the Irish are the best team in college football. Georgia always plays Tennessee, Florida, Auburn, and Tech and each season those games will make or break the season, but when you look at the next level teams in the division, Georgia gets both Missouri and South Carolina at home. Going on the road to Tech would seem like a tough task for the Dawgs, but Georgia hasn’t lost at Tech since 1999.

So, based on the schedule, expectations should be high.

That brings us to the last piece of the expectations puzzle, and the cause for concern for Georgia fans, coaching. We know a few things about Kirby Smart. He is a fantastic recruiter. He is a fantastic promoter and voice of the program. He is a fantastic assistant coach and coordinator. But the 2017 will go a very long way towards defining Kirby Smart as a head football coach.

When you look at the facts on the field last season, Kirby Smart has a lot to prove as a head coach. Georgia was 8-5 last year with loses to Ole Miss, Vandy, and Tech. Two of those losses came at home, and Georgia was absolutely embarrassed by the Rebels in Oxford.

As a head coach, you are responsible for every aspect of the program. Georgia’s defense improved significantly under Smart, which would be expected since Smart is a defensive coach. However, the lack of production from the offense and the lack of creativity in the play calling is concerning. It is fair to say that the talent gap on the offensive side of the ball was greater than the defensive side, but there didn’t seem to be much progress made throughout the season. Georgia’s offense against TCU in the bowl game was identical to the one that barely managed to beat Nicholls in week 2.

One of the biggest reasons Mark Richt was fired was that each and every season, Georgia had at least one inexplicable loss. The team played down the level of competition, and had stopped winning the 50/50 games.

Fans believe in Kirby Smart, and I want to be clear, I believe in Kirby Smart, but at some point, hope has to turn into results. Everything Kirby says fires me up. I love the way he handles the media and the way he talks about the program. His recruiting has been amazing. But there was nothing about Georgia in 2016 that looked any different than Georgia under Mark Richt in 2014 or 2015. I know many people who aren’t Georgia fans that believe Smart is going to be a bust, and that is fine, but to prove those people wrong, this season has to be great.

When you look at Georgia’s schedule this season, and weigh all factors, I can’t see three acceptable losses on this schedule. Think about it, if you lose to Notre Dame, it might not really hurt you in the SEC, but what will it say about where the program is heading to lose to a team that won 4 games last season?

No offense to Mississippi State, but that is not an acceptable loss.

Knoxville has been a house of horrors for Georgia the past two trips, but Tennessee lost their best player on both sides of the ball from last year when they were supposed to be SEC East Champions, but settled for being Champions of Life according to their coach. Butch Jones is going to be fired sooner rather than later, and that guy has beaten Georgia the past two years, and should have beaten Georgia 3 of the last four. I don’t care how many people the squeeze into that stadium, Georgia is better than Tennessee and they have to win that game this season.

Like it or not, it is absolutely unacceptable for Georgia to lose to South Carolina, Missouri, Vanderbilt, or Kentucky despite where the game is being played.

Most importantly of all, Georgia has to beat Tech. Another loss to Tech would legitimize them as a rival after the Dawgs dominated that series for 15 years.

So that leaves the two acceptable losses, Florida and Auburn. Now I’m not saying that I am ok with losing either of those games, but Florida is the two-time defending SEC East Champions and they are a talented team and Auburn is projected to be one of the best teams in the conference, so losing those two games would at least be understandable.

So that is the standard for 2017, 10-2 at worst, with losses to Florida and Auburn. Just to clarify, 10-2 is not the standard. If Georgia goes 10-2 and loses to Tech and Mississippi State, that is an unmitigated disaster of a season. If Georgia goes 10-2 and loses to Auburn and Vanderbilt, also a disaster.

The challenge of this season is that while the record is important, who Georgia’s losses come to matters as much as anything. For Georgia to become the program that Kirby Smart was brought here to coach, Georgia has to win all the games they are supposed to, and start winning their fair share of the games that could go either way. That is the first step, and this season is the year where we need to see that step taken.

So if 10-2, with loses to Florida and Auburn is the minimum, then it is pretty obvious why I said there is no middle ground for this team. Georgia hasn’t won 10 regular season games since 2012. It has happened only twice since 2007. So getting back to that level would be a huge improvement over the past few seasons. A 10-2 Georgia team would be in the discussion for a New Year’s Six bowl appearance, which would be a drastic step up from where we have been.

Obviously, 11-1 would put Georgia in an entirely different place. 11-1 means that the Dawgs would most likely be taking on the Tide in the Benz with a spot in the playoff on the line. I’m not predicting that to happen, I’m just saying that is how close Georgia could be this season to greatness.

Now, what if the disaster happens?

9-3, 8-4, or God forbid another 7-5 season would mean that the program has regressed since the firing of Mark Richt. There would be no denying it. No one would care about recruiting class rankings, and Kirby Smart’s name would be at or near the top of any list of SEC coaches on the hot seat going into 2018.

No pressure, but this season may make or break the program.