Expectations. They are the curse of college football. For
the past few seasons, one of my first blogs each year is about how expectations
can ruin a great college football season.
If you are a Vanderbilt fan, and you expect to win the SEC,
then you are setting yourself up for disappointment.
This is not that blog. Unfortunately, for Georgia fans, this
season sets up to be either one of the best seasons Georgia has enjoyed in a
very long time, or a complete and total disaster. I’m sorry, but there is no in
between this year.
Why is that?
Well, there are three factors that I believe should be considered when looking at a team’s expectations for the coming season. Schedule, returning
talent, and coaching. Not exactly rocket science.
So looking towards 2017, and specifically looking at those
three factors, how do things stack up for Georgia?
Let’s start with returning talent. Georgia had one player
leave early, Isaiah McKenzie. Which means Georgia returns it’s top two running
backs, Chubb and Michel, it’s defensive leader, Dom Sanders, and two starters
at linebacker, Lorenzo Carter and Davin Bellamy. All of those players could
have gone to the NFL, but they all came back, which means this team should have
plenty of leadership from its senior class.
The only position group that suffered significant losses was
the offensive line, which could be addition by subtraction seeing as how the
offensive line was the Achilles’ heal of last year’s team. When you factor in
the number three recruiting class in the nation, it is completely fair to say
that Georgia is the most talented team in the SEC East, which would mean that
from a talent stand point, expectations should be high.
While I will go into great detail about the schedule in the
next couple of weeks, let me give you a quick overview. The schedule is as easy
as it can ever get at Georgia, which is not to say that the schedule is easy,
but relatively speaking, Georgia’s schedule is incredibly manageable.
Georgia draws Mississippi State out of the West this year,
and they get the Bizarro Bulldogs at home. Georgia has to travel to Notre Dame
in week 2, but the Irish only won 4 games last season. Navy, Duke, and Virginia
Tech all won at Notre Dame last year, so let’s not make it like the Irish are
the best team in college football. Georgia always plays Tennessee, Florida,
Auburn, and Tech and each season those games will make or break the season, but
when you look at the next level teams in the division, Georgia gets both
Missouri and South Carolina at home. Going on the road to Tech would seem like
a tough task for the Dawgs, but Georgia hasn’t lost at Tech since 1999.
So, based on the schedule, expectations should be high.
That brings us to the last piece of the expectations puzzle,
and the cause for concern for Georgia fans, coaching. We know a few things
about Kirby Smart. He is a fantastic recruiter. He is a fantastic promoter and
voice of the program. He is a fantastic assistant coach and coordinator. But
the 2017 will go a very long way towards defining Kirby Smart as a head football
coach.
When you look at the facts on the field last season, Kirby
Smart has a lot to prove as a head coach. Georgia was 8-5 last year with loses
to Ole Miss, Vandy, and Tech. Two of those losses came at home, and Georgia was
absolutely embarrassed by the Rebels in Oxford.
As a head coach, you are responsible for every aspect of the
program. Georgia’s defense improved significantly under Smart, which would be
expected since Smart is a defensive coach. However, the lack of production from
the offense and the lack of creativity in the play calling is concerning. It is
fair to say that the talent gap on the offensive side of the ball was greater
than the defensive side, but there didn’t seem to be much progress made
throughout the season. Georgia’s offense against TCU in the bowl game was
identical to the one that barely managed to beat Nicholls in week 2.
One of the biggest reasons Mark Richt was fired was that
each and every season, Georgia had at least one inexplicable loss. The team
played down the level of competition, and had stopped winning the 50/50 games.
Fans believe in Kirby Smart, and I want to be clear, I
believe in Kirby Smart, but at some point, hope has to turn into results.
Everything Kirby says fires me up. I love the way he handles the media and the
way he talks about the program. His recruiting has been amazing. But there was
nothing about Georgia in 2016 that looked any different than Georgia under Mark
Richt in 2014 or 2015. I know many people who aren’t Georgia fans that believe
Smart is going to be a bust, and that is fine, but to prove those people wrong,
this season has to be great.
When you look at Georgia’s schedule this season, and weigh
all factors, I can’t see three acceptable losses on this schedule. Think about
it, if you lose to Notre Dame, it might not really hurt you in the SEC, but what
will it say about where the program is heading to lose to a team that won 4
games last season?
No offense to Mississippi State, but that is not an
acceptable loss.
Knoxville has been a house of horrors for Georgia the past
two trips, but Tennessee lost their best player on both sides of the ball from
last year when they were supposed to be SEC East Champions, but settled for
being Champions of Life according to their coach. Butch Jones is going to be
fired sooner rather than later, and that guy has beaten Georgia the past two
years, and should have beaten Georgia 3 of the last four. I don’t care how many
people the squeeze into that stadium, Georgia is better than Tennessee and they
have to win that game this season.
Like it or not, it is absolutely unacceptable for Georgia to
lose to South Carolina, Missouri, Vanderbilt, or Kentucky despite where the
game is being played.
Most importantly of all, Georgia has to beat Tech. Another
loss to Tech would legitimize them as a rival after the Dawgs dominated that
series for 15 years.
So that leaves the two acceptable losses, Florida and
Auburn. Now I’m not saying that I am ok with losing either of those games, but
Florida is the two-time defending SEC East Champions and they are a talented
team and Auburn is projected to be one of the best teams in the conference, so
losing those two games would at least be understandable.
So that is the standard for 2017, 10-2 at worst, with losses
to Florida and Auburn. Just to clarify, 10-2 is not the standard. If Georgia
goes 10-2 and loses to Tech and Mississippi State, that is an unmitigated
disaster of a season. If Georgia goes 10-2 and loses to Auburn and Vanderbilt,
also a disaster.
The challenge of this season is that while the record is
important, who Georgia’s losses come to matters as much as anything. For
Georgia to become the program that Kirby Smart was brought here to coach,
Georgia has to win all the games they are supposed to, and start winning their
fair share of the games that could go either way. That is the first step, and
this season is the year where we need to see that step taken.
So if 10-2, with loses to Florida and Auburn is the minimum,
then it is pretty obvious why I said there is no middle ground for this team.
Georgia hasn’t won 10 regular season games since 2012. It has happened only
twice since 2007. So getting back to that level would be a huge improvement
over the past few seasons. A 10-2 Georgia team would be in the discussion for a
New Year’s Six bowl appearance, which would be a drastic step up from where we
have been.
Obviously, 11-1 would
put Georgia in an entirely different place. 11-1 means that the Dawgs would
most likely be taking on the Tide in the Benz with a spot in the playoff on the
line. I’m not predicting that to happen, I’m just saying that is how close
Georgia could be this season to greatness.
Now, what if the disaster happens?
9-3, 8-4, or God forbid another 7-5 season would mean that
the program has regressed since the firing of Mark Richt. There would be no
denying it. No one would care about recruiting class rankings, and Kirby
Smart’s name would be at or near the top of any list of SEC coaches on the hot
seat going into 2018.
No pressure, but this season may make or break the program.
