A Real look at 2016

Normally, this blog is an outlet for me. I know some people read it, but in all honesty, I write it for me.

However, this fall has been busy. In mid-October we moved into our first home, and since then, things have been at warp-speed. It has been great, but there hasn’t been as much blog time.

After Georgia’s loss on Saturday to Tech, 28-27, giving Tech a two game winning streak in Sanford Stadium, I had to wake up early this morning to get this out, or I might not make it through the day.

One year ago today, Mark Richt was fired. I didn’t want him fired, but no one asked me what I thought, so I guess they didn’t care what I wanted. I was skeptical about Kirby Smart because of his lack of head coaching experience, but once he got the job, I was on board 100%.

The excitement around the program built from signing day which was better than expected, to the spring game which was historic. The entire Bulldog Nation was as excited as we have been in a very long time going into the 2016 season.

Now, that excitement is completely gone. If you look at this season objectively, this was Georgia’s worst season since 2010, and probably the second worst season in the past 20 years.

There is nothing positive to take out of this season. The questions we had coming into the season, some of which we thought were answered at times during the season, still persist following yesterday’s game.

Is Jacob Eason the guy we thought he was?

Can Kirby Smart be as good of a head coach as he was a coordinator?

When will Georgia stop losing to inferior teams?

Why is Sanford Stadium not a home field advantage for Georgia?

In fact, those questions that existed at the beginning of the season have now grown to include the following:

Is Jim Cheney the right choice at Offensive Coordinator?

Does Georgia have an offensive line?

Why don’t our receivers and tight ends get open?

Will either running back return to school next season?

What are we going to do if they don’t?

Ok, let’s take this one step at a time.

I have to be one of the most optimistic Georgia fans on the face of the earth. So much so, that when people ask me what I think about a season or a game, I see that they are taking my words with a grain of salt, because I’m too optimistic. So if my optimism about the program is in question, we have some real problems.

Any examination of the program has to start with Kirby Smart. A quick public service announcement: If you are on social media calling for Kirby Smart to be fired, please do the following. Get in your car. Drive to Wal-Mart. Buy a 5-gallon gas can. Go to the gas station and fill the gas can with gas. Drive to any of the numerous wildfires burning in the South. Get out of the car. Dump the entire 5 gallons of gas over yourself, then walk directly into the fire.

Anyone who says Kirby should be fired is an idiot. Anyone who says Georgia will win a National title under Smart is also an idiot. Remember what I said earlier, Kirby hasn’t even had this job for a year. Here is the reality of major college football, if Kirby Smart goes 8-4 in 2017, he will be on the hot-seat in 2018. Georgia did not hire Kirby Smart to win 7 or 8 games and Mark Richt’s success over the 15 years he coached in Athens (10 wins per season), will be the low bar for what is acceptable for Kirby.

As we saw again yesterday, Smart is still learning how to be a head coach. I have no clue what role Kirby has in either play calling on the offense or clock management, but he should have been involved as Georgia was up 13 points with less than 7 minutes to go and we are calling pass plays. When he hears the play called, he should over-rule Cheney, and run the ball, if for no other reason than to simply run the clock.

Also, let’s be honest why Georgia lost yesterday. Georgia lost because the defense, which has been the highlight of this team all season, got absolutely gashed with big plays on the ground and through the air. Kirby is a defensive coach and his defense has to play better than that, specifically in the secondary where he is the positional coach. It is “Option Football 101” that you would try to hit some big pass plays to surprise the defense after running it over and over again. Tech scored a touchdown on a drive that seemed to take about 1 minute going the length of the field because of two big pass plays. That can’t happen.

There have been some big questions about play calling throughout the season, and whether on offense or defense, Kirby is going to have to be more involved in those decisions, or he is going to have to improve on making those decisions in 2017.

The verdict isn’t in on Kirby Smart as a head coach, but so far, it hasn’t looked great. We know he is a great recruiter and he is going to bring in a fantastic class in February. We know he is a Bulldog at heart, but that simply isn’t enough. We know he has the pedigree, but there is a difference in watching greatness and achieving it yourself. I am less confident in Kirby now that I have been since he got the job. That doesn’t mean that I think he is a flop or that he should be fired, but he has to improve, quickly.

To close the book on the Kirby part of this, can I please put one thing to rest. There are going to be fans out there, perhaps fans that are reading this, that are going to reference the fact that Nick Saban went 7-5 in his first season at Alabama. Please, for the love of everything, stop comparing Kirby to Saban. That would be like comparing a freshman running back to Herschel. It’s not fair on any level. The Kirby/Saban comparison is actually worse, because Kirby is a first year head coach. When Nick Saban took the head coaching job at Alabama, he had already been the head coach at Michigan State, LSU, and the Miami Dolphins in the NFL. He had won two SEC titles and he had won a National Championship. That was who took over at Alabama. The issue that Kirby is facing is whether or not he can be a great head coach, and no, a great coordinator doesn’t automatically become a great head coach. They are two different jobs. If you are the Director of Operations in a Fortune 500 company, it doesn’t mean you can be president and CEO of the same company. You might be able to do both jobs, but being good at one doesn’t directly translate to being good at the other.

The real comparison we should be making is not to Nick Saban, but to Mark Richt. Richt, like Smart had no head coaching experience and struggled in his first season. The burden on Kirby will be what Richt did in his second season. Georgia went 13-1 in 2002, won the SEC title, and the Sugar Bowl. You want to make a comparison, there you go.

Outside of Kirby Smart, there will be no bigger question going into next season than Jacob Eason. After two years of hearing how great he was going to be, the season was full of up and downs for the freshman quarterback. Eason played like you would expect a freshman to play, but by the end of the season, you would have hoped there would be more improvement. He did seem to make an improvement on throwing the deep ball, which he struggled with in the middle of the season, but his touch on the ball seem to get worse as the season went on. He footwork and mobility improved, but his pocket presence never seemed to get better. It is obvious that he has the short memory that you look for in a quarterback, and there is no questioning his ability to make big plays late in the game. 

Georgia will have another young quarterback coming in January named Jake Fromm. Fromm will probably red-shirt, putting two years between himself and Eason, but he will get a chance to compete for the job. I think Eason is the guy, but he has to get better. Eason has talent and potential, and now he had experience. In 2017, Eason will have to be the reason Georgia wins games, and not just avoid being the reason Georgia loses.

A big part of Eason’s success will hinge on the decisions made by Nick Chubb and Sony Michel as it pertains to their future and the NFL Draft. There are so many levels to this decision, I am thankful I don’t have to make it for them. First of all, we have to be honest about a couple of things. Neither Chubb nor Michel is Todd Gurley. Gurley was a unique back, and his draft status demanded that he leave school early. He was going to be a first round pick and you always leave school if you are going to be a first round pick. There is no chance that either one of Georgia’s current backs will go in the first round. The other factor to consider is the depreciation of value that running backs have experienced in the NFL Draft. Last season, there was one running back taken in the first round, one in the second round, two in the third round, and three in the fourth round. Seven running backs in the first four rounds. That was a huge drop-off from the year before when 12 backs were taken in the same time frame. In 2014, 14 backs were taken in the first four rounds. When you look at the draft rankings right now, Chubb is ranked anywhere from 5^th to 10^th and Sony is ranked from 9^th to 16^th.

It won’t be a disaster if both go, and I wish them all the best because they have been fantastic players and representatives for the University, but if either decides to come back next season, it will take a lot of pressure off Eason.

The final point I want to make is about Tech. I have said for the past few years that Georgia should never lose to Tech. I believe that with all my heart, but let me explain why. Really, there is only one reason, Paul Johnson. Johnson believes he is the smartest guy in any room he walks into, and his insistence on running an arcane offense puts his team at a disadvantage. Georgia has been criticized for running a “pro-style” offense, but that beats the heck out of having to watch the triple option every week.  Additionally, Tech doesn’t recruit well. Johnson doesn’t go after the most highly rated players on offense or defense. I’m not sure why, but he apparently doesn’t believe that talent is something that is needed. I get that his offense needs certain types of players and maybe that would affect the recruiting rankings on offense, but not on the defense. It is not an exaggeration to say that Georgia has twice the amount of talent Tech has, and we still lost yesterday.

Georgia has kept Paul Johnson in his job because of the Tech wins in 2014 and 2016, but when Johnson is gone, Tech will have a chance to be more competitive. As for now, Georgia should NEVER lose to Tech, no matter the circumstances.

I can usually find a silver lining in just about anything, but I’m not seeing it in Georgia’s 2016 season. For every step forward, like the Missouri win, we took a huge step back, like the Ole Miss loss. By the way, Ole Miss just went 5-7 and missed going to a bowl game. Yeah Georgia beat Auburn, but when you lose to Florida, Tennessee, and Tech the Auburn win gets forgotten. Worst of all, we have another season where Georgia loses to teams they should beat, like Vandy and Tech.

I am always going to be a fan, and I’m sure by the time September 2017 rolls around, I will be predicting a SEC title for the Dawgs, but right now, one year after the program hit the reset button, the future is one big question mark.

I think it is fair to say that 2017 will be the most important season Georgia has faced in a very long time.

As always, Go Dawgs!