2016 Schedule Breakdown Part 1

There are so many factors that go into having a successful season as a college football team, it is hard to identify the most important one. However, in the modern world of college football, there is no doubt that the schedule each team plays factors in greatly to who will ultimately win divisions, conferences, and sometimes, the national title.

No one knows how much a schedule can influence a season like Georgia fans. Take 2011 for instance. Georgia lost their first two games of the season to Boise State and South Carolina, then played no team ranked in the Top 25 for the remainder of the season. They won 10 straight games to go 10-2, and 7-1 in the SEC. They won the Eastern Division and played for the SEC title. That was not a very good team. LSU beat Georgia in the SEC title game, and the Dawgs also dropped their bowl game to Michigan State, finishing the season 10-4. Which doesn’t sound bad, but they lost to every good team they played.

Last season, Georgia went undefeated in September and November, which would typically mean a pretty good season. But as we all know, the Dawgs were just 1-3 in October, which cost Georgia a shot at the SEC title and Mark Richt his job.

The 2016 schedule is very interesting. Georgia’s opponents went a combined 74-76 in 2015, which would rank them right in the middle of the pack in the nation. 5 of Georgia’s 12 opponents had winning records overall in 2015. However, only 4 of the 12 won more than 3 games in their respective conferences last season. Four teams on Georgia schedule are ranked in the Preseason Top 25, but Georgia plays three of those teams in their first five games.

All of that adds up to a schedule that has some big games on it, but should be manageable, much like the 2011 schedule. The weak SEC East means that Georgia's record may not truly reflect the quality of the team on the field, but more importantly, it may give Coach Smart and his staff a little breathing room to get this team better as the year goes along. 

Enough stats. Here is part one of the game by game break down for 2016 with a sure to change prediction for each contest.

September 3: v. North Carolina (Georgia Dome, Atlanta)

Now why would I tell you what I think is going to happen on Saturday? You will have to wait until later in the week to get a preview of the opener.

September 10: v. Nicholls State

There is nothing to break down here. Georgia will win Kirby Smart’s home opener by at least 30 points. The bigger question for this game will be surrounding the quarterback position. If Eason doesn’t start the opening game, I think he will play and probably play well. Having him play significant time against a team like Nicholls State could be important in his development. While the competition won’t be up to par, it will be good practice for him in managing the play clock and getting players into the right positions. If Georgia loses the opener, I think Eason may play the majority of this game to get ready to start the rest of the season.

Georgia 56  Nicholls State 9

September 17: @ Missouri

The last time Georgia played in Columbia, Missouri, Nick Chubb ran all over the Tigers in a 30-0 blowout. Missouri fell off the map last season going only 1-7 in SEC play. Like Georgia, Missouri has a new head coach and a ton of questions. Georgia has never lost to Missouri in Columbia, and I don’t see that changing. Whether or not Chubb and Michel are ready for the opening game of the season, both will be ready to go by mid-September which means it won’t matter who is playing quarterback. Georgia will run, run, and run some more and overwhelm the Tigers with their talent. I think Eason will start this game and the rest of the season, and he will probably be asked to do very little.

Georgia 27   Missouri 13

September 24: @ Ole Miss

Now things get interesting. Ole Miss has a lot of questions surrounding their program after a pay for play scandal rocked them back in the spring. They lost three first round draft picks to the NFL, but they return the best passer in the SEC in Chad Kelly. The biggest question coming into this game is what will Ole Miss’ record be? The Rebels play FSU on Labor Day night, and host Alabama on September 17. If Georgia is facing at 1-2 Ole Miss, it will be a much different game than if they are facing a 3-0 Ole Miss. The other interesting aspect of this game is that it comes the week before Ole Miss plays Memphis, who beat the Rebels last year. At this point, my guess is that Ole Miss drops the FSU game but beats Alabama, which could mean that Georgia catches them at just the right time, but that still might not be enough to pull off the upset in Oxford.

Georgia 30  Ole Miss 31

October 1: v. Tennessee

At worst, Georgia is 1-1 in the SEC coming into this game, which means if Georgia beats Tennessee, they will be in the driver’s seat for Atlanta. The Vols will be in a situation much like Ole Miss the week before. Tennessee plays Florida on September 24, and travels to Texas A&M the week after making the trip to Athens. Two weeks after the Georgia game, the Vols face the Tide. Tennessee gave away games last season against Oklahoma and Florida, and then Georgia returned the favor by giving away a 24-3 half time lead to the Vols in Knoxville. This game will determine the season. Predicting the game now is almost a waste of time, but I’ll give Georgia the slight edge since they get to play at home.

Georgia 24  Tennessee 20

October 8: @ South Carolina

There are going to be some close games and some competitive games in the early part of the 2016 season, but this game will not be one of them. Georgia is going to demolish South Carolina. By this point in the season, the Dawgs will be battle tested, and the young offensive players will have come into their own. South Carolina is going to be bad and watching Wil Muschamp explode on the sideline for 4 quarters will be some much needed comic relief after some very close and stress-filled games. Time for some payback for a long, long night I personally endured in 2012 at Williams Bryce Stadium.

Georgia 42  South Carolina 10

October 15: v. Vanderbilt (Homecoming)                    

Can you imagine how beautiful October 15^th will be in Athens? No matter how many loses Georgia might have at this point, and it could be as much three losses, Homecoming is a special day. Georgia’s season will most likely be defined by the time Vanderbilt comes to town, but this should be a day where all Georgia fans can come together and enjoy a win. Vanderbilt will be middle of the pack in a very weak eastern division, so it may be a little closer than you might think, but Georgia will get the win.

Georgia 24   Vanderbilt 16

Georgia has a bye week on October 22 leading into the Cocktail Party against the Gators. Check out how the Dawgs will finish 2016 in Part 2 of the schedule breakdown.