SEC Hot Seat Rankings

The college football season has kicked off with the start of SEC Media Days in Hoover, Alabama. 

The long wait from the end of the national title game to fall practice is speeding towards an end, and the time has to come to look ahead to the coming season.

I will be putting out a lot of content over the coming weeks in anticipation of my favorite time of the year, the start of the college football season. I will break down Georgia’s outlook under Kirby Smart, analyze the quarterback battle from every angle, give regional and national predictions, and Georgia fans ready with my annual “Names you need to Know.”

Today, I’m going to do something I’ve never done before, and that is rank the SEC’s coaches based on their job security. In thinking about it, the only reason I can come up with why I have never written this type of blog before is that Mark Richt would have been pretty high on this list each year since I have been writing my blog, and I didn’t want to focus on Richt’s job security too much.

It’s a new day in Athens and a new day for me, so here is my pre-season SEC Hot seat list, from the most secure job in the SEC, to the coach most likely to be fired in 2016.

14. Nick Saban (Alabama): No breaking news here. Saban’s success at Alabama has been historic and his stay in Tuscaloosa will last as long as he decides he wants it to last. Each year people question when Saban will retire, or how long he can keep going at the pace is he is going, but I don’t see any reason to believe Saban will leave Alabama in the next five seasons.

13. Bret Bielema (Arkansas): Before you get too surprised, give me a chance to explain. Arkansas hired Bielema in the wake of the Bobby Petrino fiasco, and to his credit, Bielema has represented Arkansas well. He has verbally challenged Nick Saban and his lectures to the football world, while keeping Arkansas semi-relevant in the most difficult division in football. Bielema could be much higher on this list by the end of the season, but my sense is that Arkansas fans feel very good about the direction of their program.

12. Kirby Smart (Georgia): Many things can offer job security in the SEC. The biggest factor for Smart is that he hasn’t lost a game yet. With so much of the Georgia fan base ready to move on from Mark Richt, the move to Smart has been met with overwhelming excitement in Athens and around the state. Smart has done everything right so far, and there is almost no set of circumstances that would lead to Smart losing his job after 2016.

11. Jim McElwain (Florida): The Gators won the East and beat Tennessee and Georgia in 2015. After the disgrace of Muschamp, Gator fans must be jumping for joy in their jorts. McElwain will be higher on this list before 2017 for sure because the Gators are poised to take a significant step back in 2016.

10. Dan Mullen (Mississippi State): Similar to McElwain, Mullen’s success over the past two seasons will sustain him through what is sure to be a very difficult 2016. The Bizarro Bulldogs won 19 games in the past two seasons, which is, and I’m not kidding about this, a school record for a two year period. With Dak Prescott graduating, and losing significant players from his defense, Mullen will be under pressure following the 2016 season, but he will have at least one more year in Starkvegas.

9. Tom Odum (Missouri): Who? Exactly. Odum was the hand-picked successor to long-time Missouri coach Gary Pinkel. Missouri isn’t going to be very good this year, or really for some years to come, in my opinion, but the fact that he is Pinkel’s guy combined with the fact that the Tigers are about to find out why the SEC is so difficult should buy some time from a fan base with pretty low expectations.

8. Will Muschamp (South Carolina): Now we start getting to some fun. Muschamp takes over a program that has seen its days of glory pass by. Steve Spurrier raised the bar of expectations in Columbia throughout his tenure, but left the cupboard remarkably bare for his successor. Muschamp’s fit-filled personality, the program’s lack of talent, and the fan bases’ reluctance to understand that they are not on par with Georgia, Florida, and Tennessee will make Muschamp’s reign in Columbia rocky, but must see. Even in his first year, I could see Muschamp wearing out his welcome in Columbia during what could be a 4 win season.

7. Hugh Freeze (Ole Miss): Freeze has transformed the Rebels in his short tenure in Oxford and beat Alabama each of the past two seasons, which should make his job as safe as Saban’s. However, Laramy Tunsil’s draft night admission that he accepted benefits from Ole Miss coaches changed the perception of Freeze. Freeze lost the crown jewels of his first full recruiting class to the NFL draft, and even though he has the best QB in the SEC coming into the season in Chad Kelley, there are a ton of questions for Freeze both on and off the field. If the Tunsil questions and subsequent investigation reveals that his miraculous turnaround in Oxford was fueled with improper benefits, you never know what could happen in Oxford.

6. Derek Mason (Vanderbilt): Mason has built a solid defense at Vanderbilt but the Commodores are almost completely devoid of offense. Mason has a positive feeling around the program again, but in reality he hasn’t won anything. If Vandy fails to win 5 games this season, both Vandy fans are going to be looking for the next former Vanderbilt head coach.

5. Les Miles (LSU): Think about this, Les Miles job was decided during a home game last November. That should tell you all you need to know about the Tiger’s head coach. Miles will not survive another season like 2015. I think the bar is incredibly high for LSU in 2016. Anything less than 10-2 will see Miles looking for a new employer, and even 10-2 might not be enough if the Tigers are embarrassed by the Tide.

4. Mark Stoops (Kentucky): No coach in the SEC does himself more of a disservice each off season than Mark Stoops. Each year, Stoops fires up Kentucky fans by talking about his recruiting classes, and building up his team. The problem has come when the team steps on the field and under performs. Stoops started 4-1 in 2015 but only beat Charlotte for the rest of the season. I think Stoops will be fired once Kentucky fails to make it to a bowl game in 2016. Kentucky may be a basketball school, but Stoops has convinced them they can be more. It’s going to cost him his job.

3. Butch Jones (Tennessee): Tomorrow, Tennessee will be picked by the SEC media to win the SEC East. The same thing happened last season, but the Vols under performed in the big moments in 2015. It is hard to believe Tennessee blew the leads they had against Florida and Oklahoma last September. Tennessee hasn’t beaten Alabama since Obama has been President. The school just had to settle a lawsuit related to sexual misconduct by multiple football players. The reality of the 2016 season for Tennessee is that it is now or never for Butch Jones. After the spectacle of playing Virginia Tech at Bristol Motor Speedway on September 10, the Vols get into the meat of their schedule. Starting on September 24, the host Florida, travel to Georgia, travel to Texas A&M, then return home to host Alabama. Those four weeks will decide not only the fate of the Vols in 2016, but also the fate of their head coach.

2. Kevin Sumlin (Texas A&M): Oh how quickly things can change. Sumlin was the hottest name in college football following the 2012 season. A&M upset Alabama. A&M had the Heisman winner in Johnny Manzel. A&M was expanded their stadium and inventing millions and millions of dollars into their facilities. Just three plus years later, Sumlin seems to be on his way out of a job. A&M has not been able to take the next step under Sumlin, and they have lost two highly coveted QB recruits who left the program, reportedly because of issues they had with Sumlin. There is talent at Texas A&M and John Chavis is a solid defensive coordinator, but unless the Aggies can pull a couple of big upsets in 2016, I think A&M will be making a phone call to Tom Herman at Houston in December.

1. Gus Malzahn (Auburn): Speaking of things changing quickly. Malzahn was the toast of the Plains after leading the Tigers to the last BCS title game in 2013 on the back of the Miracle at Jordan-Hare and the Kick 6. Last season, the hype machine was billing Auburn as the favorite to win the conference and perhaps a national title. Auburn nearly lost at home to Jacksonville State in week two then proceeded to lose every significant game on their schedule including games to Georgia and Alabama. 2016 has the potential to be even worse for Auburn. Malzahn announced that four Auburn players who are facing drug charges won’t miss any games, which has drawn criticism due to the fact that Clemson travels to Auburn week one. Road games at Ole Miss, Georgia, and Alabama in the second half of the season have the potential to permanently stop the Gus Bus.