The college football season has kicked off with the start of
SEC Media Days in Hoover, Alabama.
The long wait from the end of the national
title game to fall practice is speeding towards an end, and the time has to
come to look ahead to the coming season.
I will be putting out a lot of content over the coming weeks
in anticipation of my favorite time of the year, the start of the college
football season. I will break down Georgia’s outlook under Kirby Smart, analyze
the quarterback battle from every angle, give regional and national
predictions, and Georgia fans ready with my annual “Names you need to Know.”
Today, I’m going to do something I’ve never done before, and
that is rank the SEC’s coaches based on their job security. In thinking about
it, the only reason I can come up with why I have never written this type of
blog before is that Mark Richt would have been pretty high on this list each
year since I have been writing my blog, and I didn’t want to focus on Richt’s
job security too much.
It’s a new day in Athens and a new day for me, so here is my
pre-season SEC Hot seat list, from the most secure job in the SEC, to the coach
most likely to be fired in 2016.
14. Nick Saban (Alabama): No breaking news here. Saban’s
success at Alabama has been historic and his stay in Tuscaloosa will last as
long as he decides he wants it to last. Each year people question when Saban
will retire, or how long he can keep going at the pace is he is going, but I
don’t see any reason to believe Saban will leave Alabama in the next five
seasons.
13. Bret Bielema (Arkansas): Before you get too surprised,
give me a chance to explain. Arkansas hired Bielema in the wake of the Bobby
Petrino fiasco, and to his credit, Bielema has represented Arkansas well. He
has verbally challenged Nick Saban and his lectures to the football world,
while keeping Arkansas semi-relevant in the most difficult division in
football. Bielema could be much higher on this list by the end of the season,
but my sense is that Arkansas fans feel very good about the direction of their
program.
12. Kirby Smart (Georgia): Many things can offer job
security in the SEC. The biggest factor for Smart is that he hasn’t lost a game
yet. With so much of the Georgia fan base ready to move on from Mark Richt, the
move to Smart has been met with overwhelming excitement in Athens and around
the state. Smart has done everything right so far, and there is almost no set
of circumstances that would lead to Smart losing his job after 2016.
11. Jim McElwain (Florida): The Gators won the East and beat
Tennessee and Georgia in 2015. After the disgrace of Muschamp, Gator fans must
be jumping for joy in their jorts. McElwain will be higher on this list before
2017 for sure because the Gators are poised to take a significant step back in
2016.
10. Dan Mullen (Mississippi State): Similar to McElwain,
Mullen’s success over the past two seasons will sustain him through what is
sure to be a very difficult 2016. The Bizarro Bulldogs won 19 games in the past
two seasons, which is, and I’m not kidding about this, a school record for a
two year period. With Dak Prescott graduating, and losing significant players
from his defense, Mullen will be under pressure following the 2016 season, but
he will have at least one more year in Starkvegas.
9. Tom Odum (Missouri): Who? Exactly. Odum was the
hand-picked successor to long-time Missouri coach Gary Pinkel. Missouri isn’t
going to be very good this year, or really for some years to come, in my
opinion, but the fact that he is Pinkel’s guy combined with the fact that the
Tigers are about to find out why the SEC is so difficult should buy some time
from a fan base with pretty low expectations.
8. Will Muschamp (South Carolina): Now we start getting to
some fun. Muschamp takes over a program that has seen its days of glory pass
by. Steve Spurrier raised the bar of expectations in Columbia throughout his
tenure, but left the cupboard remarkably bare for his successor. Muschamp’s
fit-filled personality, the program’s lack of talent, and the fan bases’
reluctance to understand that they are not on par with Georgia, Florida, and
Tennessee will make Muschamp’s reign in Columbia rocky, but must see. Even in
his first year, I could see Muschamp wearing out his welcome in Columbia during
what could be a 4 win season.
7. Hugh Freeze (Ole Miss): Freeze has transformed the Rebels
in his short tenure in Oxford and beat Alabama each of the past two seasons,
which should make his job as safe as Saban’s. However, Laramy Tunsil’s draft
night admission that he accepted benefits from Ole Miss coaches changed the
perception of Freeze. Freeze lost the crown jewels of his first full recruiting
class to the NFL draft, and even though he has the best QB in the SEC coming
into the season in Chad Kelley, there are a ton of questions for Freeze both on
and off the field. If the Tunsil questions and subsequent investigation reveals
that his miraculous turnaround in Oxford was fueled with improper benefits, you
never know what could happen in Oxford.
6. Derek Mason (Vanderbilt): Mason has built a solid defense
at Vanderbilt but the Commodores are almost completely devoid of offense. Mason
has a positive feeling around the program again, but in reality he hasn’t won
anything. If Vandy fails to win 5 games this season, both Vandy fans are going
to be looking for the next former Vanderbilt head coach.
5. Les Miles (LSU): Think about this, Les Miles job was
decided during a home game last November. That should tell you all you need to
know about the Tiger’s head coach. Miles will not survive another season like
2015. I think the bar is incredibly high for LSU in 2016. Anything less than
10-2 will see Miles looking for a new employer, and even 10-2 might not be
enough if the Tigers are embarrassed by the Tide.
4. Mark Stoops (Kentucky): No coach in the SEC does himself
more of a disservice each off season than Mark Stoops. Each year, Stoops fires
up Kentucky fans by talking about his recruiting classes, and building up his
team. The problem has come when the team steps on the field and under performs.
Stoops started 4-1 in 2015 but only beat Charlotte for the rest of the season.
I think Stoops will be fired once Kentucky fails to make it to a bowl game in
2016. Kentucky may be a basketball school, but Stoops has convinced them they
can be more. It’s going to cost him his job.
3. Butch Jones (Tennessee): Tomorrow, Tennessee will be
picked by the SEC media to win the SEC East. The same thing happened last
season, but the Vols under performed in the big moments in 2015. It is hard to
believe Tennessee blew the leads they had against Florida and Oklahoma last
September. Tennessee hasn’t beaten Alabama since Obama has been President. The
school just had to settle a lawsuit related to sexual misconduct by multiple football
players. The reality of the 2016 season for Tennessee is that it is now or
never for Butch Jones. After the spectacle of playing Virginia Tech at Bristol
Motor Speedway on September 10, the Vols get into the meat of their schedule.
Starting on September 24, the host Florida, travel to Georgia, travel to Texas
A&M, then return home to host Alabama. Those four weeks will decide not
only the fate of the Vols in 2016, but also the fate of their head coach.
2. Kevin Sumlin (Texas A&M): Oh how quickly things can
change. Sumlin was the hottest name in college football following the 2012
season. A&M upset Alabama. A&M had the Heisman winner in Johnny Manzel.
A&M was expanded their stadium and inventing millions and millions of
dollars into their facilities. Just three plus years later, Sumlin seems to be
on his way out of a job. A&M has not been able to take the next step under
Sumlin, and they have lost two highly coveted QB recruits who left the program,
reportedly because of issues they had with Sumlin. There is talent at Texas
A&M and John Chavis is a solid defensive coordinator, but unless the Aggies
can pull a couple of big upsets in 2016, I think A&M will be making a phone
call to Tom Herman at Houston in December.
1. Gus Malzahn (Auburn): Speaking of things changing
quickly. Malzahn was the toast of the Plains after leading the Tigers to the
last BCS title game in 2013 on the back of the Miracle at Jordan-Hare and the
Kick 6. Last season, the hype machine was billing Auburn as the favorite to win
the conference and perhaps a national title. Auburn nearly lost at home to
Jacksonville State in week two then proceeded to lose every significant game on
their schedule including games to Georgia and Alabama. 2016 has the potential
to be even worse for Auburn. Malzahn announced that four Auburn players who are
facing drug charges won’t miss any games, which has drawn criticism due to the
fact that Clemson travels to Auburn week one. Road games at Ole Miss, Georgia,
and Alabama in the second half of the season have the potential to permanently
stop the Gus Bus.
