Fans, pundits, and prognosticators spend the summer months
analyzing the coming college football season, but once the season finally kicks
off, it takes a short period of time for us to see that all of that talk means absolutely
nothing.
The reason I believe college football is the greatest sport
we have is because its regular season is a test that lasts 15 weeks. Every
week, we peel off another layer of hype, to slowly reveal the ultimate truth in
the form of a National Champion.
There were a few themes that were hyped all summer that have
already been put to rest. Let’s start with the demise of the SEC. I cannot tell
you how many times I heard the SEC West’s bowl record referenced. The West went
2-5 this past bowl season, and apparently, that meant that the amazing games
and drama produced by the SEC West meant nothing.
The reality is that the SEC was never as dominant as it was perceived
to be. 7 straight national titles was great, but it coincided with multiple
programs around the country going through transitional periods. USC, Michigan,
Ohio State, Texas, Penn State, Florida State, and Notre Dame all had coaching
changes, probation, scandals, or rebuilding seasons during the SEC’s reign at
the top of college football.
The new reality is that many of those programs are on the
way back, while some of the SEC’s top programs are in a bit of a transition
themselves. Alabama, Ole Miss, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Auburn, and
LSU all have serious questions at quarterback coming into 2015. As good as some
of those teams are, they will struggle to repeat past dominance because
quarterback is the most important position in football, and you can’t just
throw anyone in there and expect to get results.
The NFL is the most popular sport in America because of
parity. Each year, teams that struggled the year before make the playoffs, and
many times, teams that played in the Super Bowl, miss the playoffs. With some
of those traditional college football powers beginning to regain past glory, at
the same time, SEC teams are reloading, what we have in 2015 is a dream for a
college football fan: parity.
There are many notable games this weekend, Auburn/LSU, Ole
Miss/Alabama, Tech/Notre Dame, and BYU/UCLA. Those are all games that feature
two teams ranked in the Top 25. Outside of those matchups, there are plenty of
intriguing games like Georgia/South Carolina, Clemson/Louisville,
Kentucky/Florida, and Stanford/USC that are must see this weekend. In any of the
games I listed, I would not be surprised if either team won. That is both
amazing and exciting. There is no person in the country right now that could
predict the playoff teams with any kind of certainty, and that is a great thing
for college football.
There will be questions answered this weekend, but in
reality, even a team losing on Saturday would still have a good chance of
making the playoff if they ran the table, so we won’t be able to make any definitive
statements on the playoff for another month at least.
Everyone would agree that Ohio State is number one, but they
might be in the most precarious situation of all. Their assumed dominance could
lead to complacency at times throughout the year, and the wrong loss, to the
wrong team, could completely derail their attempt at defending their title.
With the coming week of college football put into context,
here is my preview of Week 3, the first of
many, Showdown Saturdays.
Auburn v. LSU 3:30 pm
CBS
The Auburn Tigers almost ruined their entire season last
Saturday against Jacksonville State. They needed overtime to take out the
Gamecocks at home, in a game where most people showed up to see Auburn’s new
video board, rather than to see a competitive football game. There is no way
the Auburn Tigers could have a lot of confidence as they travel to Death Valley
on Saturday afternoon to take on LSU.
Before the season, Auburn was everyone’s pick as a surprise
team this season, but I wasn’t buying the hype. Auburn couldn’t stop the run
last year, and if the first two game of this season are any indication, nothing
has changed. Enter Leonard Fournette. Fournette could be the best running back
in the nation, and he will be licking his chops as he watches Auburn’s defense
fail to stop backs that don’t have 1/10th of the talent of
Fournette. On the other side of the ball, Auburn has not been efficient on
offense with Jeremy Johnson under center. Johnson has thrown too many
interceptions, and hasn’t been effective running the ball the way we saw Nick
Marshall run the Auburn offense over the past two seasons.
LSU has flown under the radar all off season and they
continue to be overlooked, but that will end on Saturday. Just like we saw last
year, the SEC West will deliver great game after great game, and the winner of
those great games will then have all the pressure in the world placed on them
moving forward. The reality is that no team will survive the SEC West without a
loss, and if a team makes it through with only one loss, they will be the only
one to do so. LSU is a terrible matchup for Auburn, offensively and
defensively. Les Miles has said that Death Valley is where opponents dreams
come to die, after last week’s close call, I think Auburn’s nightmare of a
season will begin on Saturday afternoon.
Auburn 16 LSU 27
Ole Miss v. Alabama
9:15 pm ESPN
Last year, Ole Miss gave Alabama their only regular season
loss, in a game that Alabama had won a couple of times. For the Rebels, it was
a national statement that they were a legit contender, and it lead them to one
of the greatest seasons in their school’s history.
This year, Ole Miss won’t surprise Alabama, and this will be
the truest test of where the program is and where it is going. You don’t just
walk into Alabama and beat the Tide, you have to earn it. Alabama has looked
good so far, and so has Ole Miss, so unless you have something really important
to do on Sunday morning, stay up late on Saturday night and watch this game.
There are huge questions for both of these teams at the
quarterback position, and Saturday night will go a long way to providing
answers. If Chad Kelley can lead the Rebels to a win, then Ole Miss will be in
the driver’s seat for Atlanta. If Jacob Coker struggles, Alabama’s quarterback
race could be opened back up very quickly.
Instinct would tell you that Ole Miss can’t win this game.
Saban doesn’t lose these types of games. Ole Miss has come a long way in just
three short years, but to be the man you have to beat the man, and they aren’t
quite ready to walk that aisle just yet.
Ole Miss 23
Alabama 31
Florida v. Kentucky
7:30 pm SEC Network
As good as some of these other games are, this is, to me,
the most intriguing game of the week. Neither Florida or Kentucky are going to
win the National Title this season, but the result of this game will tell us so
much about both of these teams.
Kentucky took a big step forward last week going into
Columbia and beating South Carolina. They looked explosive on offense and solid
on defense. Florida is not a good team, but they have
Kentucky’s number. The
Cats haven’t beaten the Gators in 30 years. Kentucky’s schedule is very interesting.
They get Florida, Missouri, Tennessee, and Auburn all at home this season. They
only have three road games left this year, Mississippi State, Georgia, and
Vanderbilt. I’m not ready to say
Kentucky can win the East, but it’s not going to
be a cake walk beating this team, especially in Lexington.
Meanwhile, Florida continues to try and find their way under
first year coach Jim McElwain. Last week’s sideline rant in the face of Kelvin
Taylor grabbed all the attention in the lead up to this game, but it matter
when the Gators take the field. It says a lot about where Florida is that a win
against Kentucky would be big for the program, but that is exactly what is on
the line this weekend. It is entirely
possible that a loss this weekend against Kentucky could be the first of 6
straight losses for the Gators. The next winnable game I see on their schedule
is Vanderbilt on November 7th. McElwain might get this program back
to great heights, but he isn’t going to do it this year.
History is going to be made in Lexington, and you better get
ready for a Fall full of pain in Gainesville.
Florida 17 Kentucky 20
I was going to do an
extended preview of the Tech/Notre Dame game, but I’m not sure the Irish are
going to have enough healthy players to field a team. Tech should be able to
win this game, but only because of Notre Dame’s season ending injuries to their
quarterback, running back, and starting tight end.
South Carolina/Georgia preview coming tomorrow.
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