Critics of the BCS forget the days before it existed. Like
1997, the final year of the pre-BCS era, which ended with co-National
Champions, Nebraska and Michigan. The concept of the BCS was to get the best
two teams on the field at the end of the season to play for the title. Since
1998, I believe the system has worked every season except for two years.
The first is not up for debate. USC and Oklahoma played for
the National title because each were undefeated, but that left out Auburn who
was also undefeated. USC crushed Oklahoma in the title game, and later had to
give up the title all together because of the Reggie Bush scandal. Meanwhile,
Auburn has a 14-0 season on their hands with nothing to show for it.
The second time the system failed was in 2007. By the end of
the season, Georgia was the best team in the country. Now most years, having
two losses would eliminate you from title contention without question. But 2007
was different and there were no great teams. There isn’t a huge argument to be
made, except that pollsters manipulated the rankings so Georgia wouldn’t be in
the title game against LSU. Four years later, the same pollsters had no problem
with two SEC schools playing for the title, of course, that was Alabama and
Nick Saban, so I guess the rules are different.
Again this year, the BCS has provided us number one versus
number two. Number one was really easy. Florida State has been dominate this
season. They have won every game by at least 14 points, and Heisman winner
Jameis Winston has only attempted 18 passes this season when the ‘Noles were
trailing. Florida State’s schedule hasn’t been the most difficult in the
country, but their domination is what you would expect from a great team
playing a mediocre schedule.
Auburn on the other hand was not even in the title picture
until November. The Tigers, much like Georgia in 2007 have gotten better as the
year has progressed. By the end of the season they were in position to have
good things happen to them in the
Georgia and Alabama games. Obviously there was some luck involved in those
wins, but you can’t deny the fact that in both of those games, the miracles don’t
happen if Auburn doesn’t stay in the game until the fourth quarter.
The best way I can describe tonight’s game is that tomorrow,
everything will make sense. If Florida State comes out and blows the doors off
of the Tigers, it will be obvious that Florida State is not only the best team
this year, but one of the best teams we have seen in a long time. Tonight will
always be seen as a coronation, and with Winston coming back next year, maybe
the beginning of a dynasty.
If Auburn wins, it will be Cinderella wearing the slippers
all the way back to the Planes. Just one year after going winless in the SEC,
the Tigers end an improbable season with an impossible victory over an invincible
team.
The problem is, I could believe either story.
I really don’t have a feel for how this game is going to go.
I really believe that the game is going to come down to Florida State stopping
Auburn’s running game, which is probably the most obvious statement I have made
on this blog. Auburn is one dimensional, so if they can’t run, they can’t win.
Florida State is balanced, but I believe there will be some rust on Winston and
the Noles’ offense. If Auburn can run, even a little bit in the first half,
then I think they will have an excellent chance to win the game.
I think about the Clemson game, where Florida State just
came out playing at a different level. Clemson is a good team, they showed that
by winning 11 games including the Orange Bowl, but on the field that night in
Death Valley, the Tigers were boys playing against men. That Florida State team
could win the game tonight by 30 points. However, Winston had some trouble in the
first half against Duke, Miami, and Boston College. If Winston struggles at
all, then I think Auburn will stay in the game, and if I were Florida State, I
wouldn’t want to take my chances against Auburn in a fourth quarter game.
No one has stopped Auburn’s running game all season, so I
don’t think it will happen tonight. So here’s my prediction:
Auburn 41 Florida
State 35
The game ends when Florida State, attempting a last second
field goal to win the game, which is tied 35-35, the snap is bad and Florida
State’s holder tries to run, but fumbles. Auburn scoops the ball up, laterals 3
different times en route to scoring a game winning touchdown in the way only
the 2013 Tigers can.
Enjoy the game, it’s the last one we get until August 28th.
