Biggest Story of the Week: Clarity in the BCS title race
There are
always weeks like this in college football. November often offers clarity in
the title race, and this was no exception.
The debate
between FSU and Oregon looked like it was going to dominate the final month of
the season. As good as Oregon had looked, I think most people were so impressed
with FSU that you felt like they should be in the title game over the Ducks.
Well, thanks to Stanford, the path to the BCS title game is clear for the ‘Noles.
Stanford eliminated Oregon for the second straight year by dominating them
physically on both lines of scrimmage.
Moving
forward, I think there are serious questions to be asked about Oregon’s ability
to beat elite teams in college football. Losing to Stanford the last two years,
LSU to start the 2011 season, and Auburn in the 2010 BCS title game have all
been examples of how Oregon just can’t play with elite teams.
Alabama
finally played a team with a pulse on Saturday, and in the end, they showed the
quality of their team by blowing out LSU in the second half. Although they
haven’t played the most difficult schedule this year, I still think they are
the best team until someone beats them.
Now, the
title picture is clear. Alabama has the Iron Bowl and the SEC title game to
navigate to claim their perfect season. Florida State has already booked their
hotel rooms in Pasadena because there is nothing left on their schedule that
should give them any kind of problems. Baylor has to go on the road to play Oklahoma
State in two weeks, and then they finish with Texas, which could be for the Big
12 title. Ohio State is looking more and more like they will run the table, but
beating Michigan State in the Big 10 title game would be their best win, which
still puts them fourth in the pecking order.
I don’t
think there is any chance of a one-loss team getting into the title game, but
just for fun let’s look at the possibilities. The highest rated one-loss team
is Stanford, but their loss was against Utah. Then you have Missouri. To be a
one loss team at the end of the season they would have to win out, which would
mean beating Ole Miss, A&M, and Alabama in the SEC title game. They would
have wins over Georgia, A&M, and Alabama, which would be a pretty good
resume’. Clemson is out because of their beating at the hands of FSU.
The most
intriguing possibility remains Auburn. The Tigers lost early in the season to
LSU in Baton Rouge but have a chance to run the table and win the SEC after not
winning a game in conference last year. A win over Georgia next week would set
up one of the most anticipated Iron Bowls in recent history, and that is saying
something. 11-0 Alabama against 10-1 Auburn, with the SEC West on the line. An
Auburn win would give them the division title, a place in the SEC title game,
and maybe more importantly, eliminate Alabama from BCS title contention.
If Baylor is
undefeated, I don’t think Alabama or FSU deserve to go ahead of the Bears if
either of the top two teams stumble. Baylor has played a respectable schedule
in the Big 12. I do, however, believe that both FSU and Alabama deserve to go
to the title game with one loss ahead of Ohio State. I just don’t think the
Buckeyes are on the level of the other teams. It’s not their fault that the Big
10 is terrible, but in reality, Ohio State doesn’t have the talent to play with
FSU or Alabama.
Biggest Win of the Week: Tie: Stanford over Oregon, Alabama
over LSU
Both wins
were impressive even though they were both at home. More importantly, both wins
establish each team as the dominant team in their division going forward. For
Stanford, they now have a chance to play for a BCS title, while the Ducks are
heading to the Fiesta Bowl.
For LSU,
they might be a very good team with a lot of talent, but this season can be
considered nothing more than a huge disappointment. Losing their two biggest
games of the season, to Georgia and Alabama would have been bad enough. Add in
the loss to Ole Miss and Tiger fans will be very disappointed. The Tigers still
have to play A&M in two weeks, so there is a real possibility they could
lose four games this season with their most impressive win being early in the
season over Auburn.
Biggest Loss of the Week: Florida losses to Vanderbilt at home
The wheels
have completely come off in Gainesville. Just one year after playing in the
Sugar Bowl and finishing the regular season number three in the country,
Florida has already lost five games. Losing to Miami early in the season was
bad. Losing to Missouri was a disappointment. Losing to LSU was expected.
Losing to Georgia for a third straight year was concerning. Losing at home to
Vanderbilt by 17 points is simply inexcusable.
I don’t
understand why there seems to be so many people convinced that Will Muschamp
will be back next season. If I were a Florida fan, with so many memories of the
Spurrier and Meyer eras, I would be demanding a change. It makes no sense that
a school like Florida should settle for mediocrity. I know he won 11 games last
year, but I really didn’t think last year’s team was that good.
I do
understand that Muschamp is a defensive coach, but with all the talent in the
state of Florida, there is no reason Florida’s offense should be this bad. The
line is bad, there is no depth at the quarterback position, and worst of all,
the skill guys on the outside, which were the trademark of so many Florida
teams in the past, are nowhere to be found.
There has
been nothing to make me think that Muschamp will turn Florida around next year.
Are they better than Georgia? No. Are they better than Missouri? No. Are they
better than Florida State? No.
So if you
bring him back one more year, you are accepting at best third in the division
and second fiddle in your own state.
As a Georgia
fan, I hope Muschamp stays in Gainesville forever. But my guess is that he will
be gone after this season, and two years from now, Florida will be right back
where they have been for most of the past 25 years, the top of the SEC.
Heisman Winner if the Season Ended
Today: Famous Jameis
Winston
He will have
one more chance to impress voters by really laying a whopping on Florida in a
few weeks. Winston is the best player on an undefeated team that will play for
the BCS title. ESPN will want to make it a close race so everyone tunes in, but
the reality of the situation is that Winston is going to run away with the
award.
Top 5:
Alabama
FSU
Baylor
Ohio State
Stanford
Three Things to Watch for Next Week:
Can the
Undefeateds avoid upsets?
Bama travels
to Starkville to play a Mississippi State team that will be firing their coach
in a few weeks, so that shouldn’t be a problem. Florida State hosts Syracuse
for the first time, so another 50 point win will be in order. Ohio State
travels to Champaign to take on Illinois. I have no idea if Illinois is good or
not, but they play in the Big 10, so I’ll guess that they stink.
The biggest
chance for an undefeated team to fall will be Baylor taking on Texas Tech. The
Red Raiders have lost three straight, but they might be able to give Baylor a
game.
Georgia
travels to the Plains to wreck the Iron Bowl:
The Iron
Bowl is always a must see game on the day after Thanksgiving, but can you
imagine how big the game will be this year if the two teams are playing for the
SEC West title? The only thing standing in the way of that huge match up is
Georgia. Last year, Georgia traveled to Auburn and clinched the SEC East with a
38-0 demolishing of the Tigers. Auburn has turned their program around in just
one season, and they are the team with title aspirations. Georgia still has an
outside chance of winning the East, but they need a lot of help. However, the
Dawgs can clinch the West for Alabama if they can knock off the Tigers. On
paper it would seem that Georgia is outmatched, but if the Dawgs have Todd
Gurley at full strength, then they can win the game.
Can Texas
really win the Big 12?
We will
never know just how close Mack Brown was to being fired mid-season, but his
Longhorns have turned their season around. I think it would have been announced
that Brown was out after the season if Texas had lost the Red River Rivalry at
the beginning of October, but not only did the Longhorns win that game, but
they are undefeated in conference play. They still have two big tests ahead of
them as they play Oklahoma State and Baylor over the next three weeks, but
there is a legitimate chance that Texas could be playing in a BCS game as the
Big 12 Champions.
I think
Texas will lose to Baylor and Oklahoma State, but you have to give that team
credit for playing so well over the last few weeks.
BCS Bowl Predictions:
BCS Title
Game: Alabama v. Florida State
Sugar Bowl:
Auburn v. Wisconsin
Rose Bowl:
Stanford v. Ohio State
Fiesta Bowl:
Oregon v. Baylor
Orange Bowl:
Clemson v. UCF
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