NFC Championship Game Preview

The Atlanta Falcons franchise has waited 47 years for this game.  True the city has hosted two Super Bowls, but never before has the home-town team played a game of this magnitude in front of it's home fans.

The San Francisco 49ers are the heavy road favorite in tomorrow's game, actually they are an historic road favorite.  Never before in the history of the NFL has there been a bigger road favorite in a conference championship game.  Which is to say that Las Vegas believes that the Falcons are the weakest team to ever host a conference championship game.  

Ugh, we get no respect.

If you have watched ESPN for more than about 2 minutes while they have been talking about this game then you know that the Falcons face a tough challenge this week.  It's not the 49er's defense, which is one of the best in the league.  It's not the 49er's coach, who has led his team to a second consecutive NFC title game.  No, the Falcons face a man who is, without a doubt, the greatest quarterback in the history of the NFL, no the world: Colin Kaepernick!

Colin Kaepernick, who, when the season started, was a back up to Alex Smith.  Colin Kaepernick who has started all of 9 games in his NFL career.  Colin Kaepernick, the quarterback of the 21st century.

 

(insert yawn here)

ESPN has outdone themselves this time.  With all of the hype they are giving Kaepernick, you kinda feel like they might have short-changed Notre Dame leading up to the National Championship game.  Kaepernick had an amazing game against Green Bay last week.  He passed for 263 yards and two touchdowns.  He rushed for a record (not a post-season record, an all time record for a quarterback) 181 yards and two more touchdowns.  It was the game of a career.  But are we really supposed to think that he is going to do it again?  

I heard one NFL analyst say this week that after looking at the tape, it seemed Green Bay didn't prepare at all for Kaepernick's running ability.  Green Bay played a ton on man defense, which made it much easier for Kaepernick to break long runs.

In Kaepernick's 9 starts this season, the Niners are 6-2-1.  His highest rushing total of the season before last week was when he rushed for 84 yards in a game against St. Louis, and he had a long of 50 yards in that game.  By the way, the Niners lost that game in overtime.  For the entire season, including games where he did not start, Kaepernick rushed for 415 yards and 5 touchdowns.  Passing wise, he is good but not great.  He totaled 10 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on the year.  Not exactly Pro Bowl numbers.

Don't get me wrong, he is a good player, but the hype has far exceeded the accomplishments.  

Meanwhile, the Falcons, the boring 13-3 Falcons, are just lucky to be here.  Atlanta was supposed to lose to Seattle last week.  All of the "experts" told you so.  Even though they were leading 20-0 at half time and 27-7 in the fourth quarter, the real story is that the lowly Falcons allowed Seattle to come all the way back and take the lead 28-27 with 31 seconds left.  That is what you are supposed to remember, that the Falcons blew the lead.  You aren't supposed to care that Matt Ryan moved the ball into field goal range for the most clutch kicker in the NFL, Matt Bryant.  You are supposed to care that Bryant made the game winning field goal and sent those pesky pelicans home for the winter.  No, you aren't supposed to care about that.

You know who does care about that?  The Seahawks.  You see, they are watching on TV just like me.

All kidding aside, this should be a very good game.  You don't make it to the NFC Championship game unless you have a great team, and both of these teams are fantastic.  The front seven on the 49ers is special, and if Justin and Alden Smith play like they are capable of playing, then Matt Ryan could have a long day.  The Falcons' defense isn't as good statistically, but they are great at forcing turnovers, and Colin The Great did throw a pick six last week against Green Bay.  

Offensively, the Falcons were built to excel in moments just like this.  They moved up in the 2011 draft to get Julio Jones so they could have the kind of dynamic offense that could overcome good defenses in the playoffs.  The Falcons have more proven weapons than any other team left in the playoffs.  

Matt Ryan is has won more games in his first five seasons in the NFL than any other quarterback in the league's history.  He has made the playoffs in 4 of his 5 seasons in the league, and Ryan has never suffered a losing season.  

I think the difference maker in this game is going to be one of the Falcons role players, Jacquizz Rogers.  Last year, the offense ran less screen plays than any other offense in the league.  New Falcons offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter has used the screen much more this season, and Rogers' role in the offense has increased accordingly.  To me it is just a matter of too many play makers on the field for the Falcons.  You only have so many guys on defense.  Are you going to cover Julio Jones one on one?  If you double team Jones does that mean that you are going to try and cover Tony Gonzalez with a linebacker?  If you use a safety on Gonzalez and double team Jones, then you are going to be putting Roddy White one on one with no help.  Even Michael Turner made a guest appearance last week against Seattle.  Turner doesn't have to dominate the game, but if he can run for 80 yards, then it is just one more thing that the Niners have to worry about.  Rogers is going to get some chances at a big play, and I think he might just be the difference maker.  

The NFL has become a league that is centered around quarterbacks and offense.  You have to play some defense, but as the Saints and the Packers proved in 2009 and 2010, defense no longer wins championships.  

My biggest concern for the Falcons heading into this game is Mike Smith.  I like Mike Smith.  I think he is the second best coach the Falcons have ever had, behind Dan Reeves.  But the way Mike Smith handled himself at the end of the Seattle game last week, makes me nervous.  There was no reason to call the final timeout with so much time left on the clock.  There was no reason to try and start playing it safe on offense in the fourth quarter, win the game 42-14 don't try and just hold on to a lead.  How many times over the years have you been watching a Falcons' game and you see a 50/50 call on the field, they show the replay and you see that the call was right, but then they show Smith, looking red-faced and stressed trying to find his challenge flag.  As soon as he throws it, you know that the challenge is going against the Falcons, but he couldn't wait until the guys in the booth took a look at the play and let him know whether or not he should challenge.  This is the biggest game in Mike Smith's coaching career, but he has to stay calm on the sidelines and not make a huge mistake that costs his team the game.  

Las Vegas says the Falcons are 4.5 point underdogs.  Take the points, but you won't need them.  You don't pick against Matt Ryan in the Dome.  ESPN says the numbers never lie, so I'll go with 34-6 in the Georgia Dome. The Falcons win the game 31-21, and advance to their second Super Bowl in team history.  I just hope someone breaks out the "Dirty Bird" this afternoon.

RISE UP!!!!

From Futility to Contender: The Makeover of a Franchise

The Atlanta Falcons will host the NFC Championship Game for the first time in the team's 48 year history.  Atlanta has been a franchise of futility throughout their history, having only 9 winning seasons between 1965 and 2007.  When you look back on the recent history of the team, it shows just how bad things have been in Atlanta.  

The entire backdrop of Falcon's football has to be set in context.  The state of Georgia is college football country through and through.  When I was growing up in the early to mid '90's there were many times that Falcon games weren't on TV because of NFL blackout rules tied to low attendance at games.  When the team struggles, people simply don't pay attention and people just don't care.  

Add to that fact that Atlanta is a city made up of people from other cities, primarily in the north eastern part of the country, and you have a lot of fans of the Giants, Eagles, Redskins, and even the Jets that live in Atlanta but will never be Falcon fans.  

Going back to the 1980's you can talk about Steve Bartkowski, but the Falcons made it to prime time when they drafted "Prime Time."  In 1989, the Falcons drafted Dion Sanders in the first round of the NFL draft and the circus truly came to town.  Sanders had been a standout at Florida State where he began calling himself "Prime Time" and "Neon Deon."  Having Sanders on the team put the franchise on the map nationally.     

In 1991, the Falcons drafted quarterback Bret Favre out of Southern Mississippi, but Favre played in only two games for the Falcons.  As the team prepared to move into the newly built Georgia Dome in 1992, they made the most infamous trade in franchise history by sending Bret Favre to the Green Bay Packers.

Over the next six years, the team lost Sanders to free agency, again fell off the national stage, and had to watch Favre win a Super Bowl in Green Bay in 1996.

Somehow, the Falcons managed to catch lightning in a bottle in 1998.  Out of no where, Jamal Anderson led the newly minted "Dirty Birds" to a 14-2 record in the regular season.  The team overcame a heart attack suffered by coach Dan Reeves, to make it to the playoffs as the number two seed in the NFC.  The Falcons won a home game in the divisional round of the playoffs against then division rival San Francisco, to advance to play the 16-1 Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship Game.  

In overtime, Morten Anderson's field goal sent Atlanta to their first Super Bowl in franchise history.  Denver would defeat the Falcons in the Super Bowl, but for the first time ever, Falcon fans had a reason to be optimistic.  

That optimism was short lived.  Jamal Anderson suffered a knee injury in Week 2, and the team fell apart.  One year after going to the Super Bowl, the Falcons finished the season 5-11.

From 5-11 in 1999 to 4-12 in 2000 the Falcons seemed to be back to being the same old losing franchise.  The team was about to be sold to Home Depot founder Arthur Blank as the 2001 NFL Draft approached.  The Falcons decided to make a splash and take a chance by moving up to get the number one pick in the draft and take Michael Vick to be their franchise quarterback.

Vick didn't play in 2001, but when he did take the starting job in 2002, he led the team to the playoffs for the first time since 1998.  Vick then did something that had never been done before.  Vick led the Falcons to a win in Green Bay over the Packers in the wild card round of the playoffs, the first ever home playoff loss for the Packers.  Even though the Falcons lost to the Eagles in the next round, there was, once again, a reason for hope.

As only the Falcons could do, they ripped the heart out of the fan base in the preseason, when Vick was injured in a game against Baltimore.  He would miss the first 12 games of the regular season, and the team inexplicably fired Dan Reeves before Vick returned to the field.  Once Vick returned, the Falcons won 3 of their last 4 games to finish the season 5-11.

The Falcons hired Jim Mora Jr. to be their new coach for the 2004 season, and Mora's new up beat approach worked well in 2004.  The Falcons were the number two seed in the NFC after going 11-5 and beat the Rams in the Georgia Dome to get back to the NFC Championship Game for the first time since 1998 and only the second time in team history.  Again the Falcons were foiled by the Eagles, but with a new coach, a dynamic quarterback, and an owner who was committed to winning at the highest level, finally, it was time for the Falcons to take flight.

Only, it wasn't.  The Falcons under achieved in 2005 and 2006 going 8-8 and 7-9 respectively.  Mora was fired after the '06 season, and Bobby Petrino, an offensive mastermind, was hired to get the most out of Michael Vick and the Falcon offense.  The Petrino hiring should have been a perfect fit, but he would never get a chance to work with Vick.

Vick was suspended for the 2007 season over dog fighting alegations.  Vick would eventually be sent to jail, and the team would part ways with him.  Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse, new head coach Bobby Petrino resigned to take the Arkansas head coaching job, and left his former players a note in the locker room as he left.

After what could be described as the worst season in the history of a franchise that had seen a lot of bad seasons, the Falcons started over completely.  A new General manager was hired, Thomas Dimitoff.  A new head coach was hired, Mike Smith.  And with their first pick in the 2008 draft, number 3 overall, the Falcons drafted their new quarterback Matt Ryan from Boston College.

In 2008 the Falcons made the playoff.  In 2009 the Falcons missed the playoffs but by going 9-7, they secured the first back to back winning seasons in the history of the franchise.  13-3 and a division champion in 2010.  Back in the playoffs in 2011.  Even though they had not won a playoff game through this time period, it was still the most sustained success the franchise had ever seen.  The Falcons were 13-3 again this year and, of course, won a playoff game last Sunday in dramatic fashion over the Seahawks.  

The point of all of this history is this: a win on Sunday against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game wouldn't be a flash in the pan, it would be the culmination of a plan that has been put into place over the past 5 years by a group of men that have dedicated themselves to the idea that this franchise can be elite.  Yes the Falcons have been to a Super Bowl before, but this would be different.  This isn't catching lighting in a bottle.  The Falcons have drafted well over the past few years to get their talent level at a place where winning isn't hoped for, it's expected.  They have taken chances by trading up in the draft to get players they believe can help them win a Super Bowl.  They traded a second round pick for a Hall of Fame tight end that others thought was in the twilight of his career four years ago.  

This version of the Falcons might have won their first playoff game last week, but success is nothing new to them.  They have the best record in the NFC over the past 5 seasons.  The national media might doubt them, the fans might be skeptical, but this team and this organization hasn't made it to this point by accident.  

The Atlanta Falcons have put themselves right where they want to be.  They are hosting the NFC Championship Game in a building where they are 34-8 in the Ryan/Smith/Dimitroff era.  They are one win away, not from a hope or a dream, but from a goal, and that might make all the difference in the world.  

Who can we cheer for now?

It has been one week since the announcement came down from the baseball Hall of Fame that there would be no class of 2013, despite names like Clemens, Bonds, Piazza, and Biggio being on the ballot.

Earlier this week, Lance Armstrong, cancer survivor and American hero, told Oprah that he used PED's in route to winning 7 Tour de France titles.  That interview will air over the next two days.

Then today, we hear that one of the most touching stories of the college football season was all a hoax.  Manti Te'o became a house hold name this season as he lead the Notre Dame Fighting Irish all the way to the BCS title game.  The nation's (or ESPN's) infatuation with Te'o began in the early fall with a story that was almost too terrible to believe.  Te'o's grandmother and girlfriend both died in the week leading up to Notre Dame's game with Michigan State, but Te'o, summoning the inner strength of a true hero, managed to play through the pain he must have been feeling, and have a great game.  Afterwards he thanked just about everyone in the world for the support he had received and referenced both ladies in his post game remarks.

There is only one problem, the girlfriend never existed.  Of course, Te'o and by extension Notre Dame, have released an apology today explaining the confusion.  You see, Te'o is really the victim here.  He began an online relationship with this woman that he believed was real.  He knew that she was sick, and then he found out that she died.  He never actually met the girl, but he says the feelings he felt for her were real even if she turned out not be real.  Again to reiterate, Te'o is the victim.

Lance Armstrong was once the victim too.  During his time dominating the cycling world, Armstrong was constantly being accused of using PED's.  He denied the accusations and went on the offensive, attacking his accusers.  Armstrong was made out to be the only clean guy in a very dirty sport by the media, and the American public ate it up.  Hey, I wore my Livestrong bracelet when I was in college, so I am as guilty as anyone.  Again, the story was just too good to pass up.  This guy beat testicular cancer, and even though he was literally half the man of the other guys in the field, he dominated a sport that we couldn't care less about.

Now Armstrong is going back on the offensive.  He is going to apologize for misleading us, he is going to ask us for forgiveness, and he is probably going to manage to shed a tear while he does it.  But make no mistake, this isn't about the Livestrong organization that he founded, and this isn't about coming clean and telling the truth.  It is about one thing, the thing it has always been about, Lance Armstrong.  You see, Armstrong would have probably been a great cyclist without the drugs, but who cares about great cyclist?  Can you name one other great cyclist?  You see, Armstrong needed the drugs to win at a level that couldn't be ignored.  He needed the fame, the fortune  and most of all, the notoriety that comes with winning not just one Tour de France, but seven.  Armstrong shouldn't be let off the hook for the lies that he has told, and neither should Te'o or Notre Dame.

Te'o and Notre Dame put the statement out today because the story broke today.  According to the original story on deadspin.com, Notre Dame became aware of the hoax on December 26.  Today is January 16.  If this was about telling the truth, then they would have come clean about the story when the found out about it.  Why wouldn't they just tell the embarrassing story then and get it over with?  The answer is pretty obvious.  Notre Dame and Te'o are going to tell you their side of the story now, because they got caught.  Had this story never come out, then they would have let us believe forever that this "girlfriend" really existed.

Maybe Te'o's version of the story is the truth, but that doesn't make him or Notre Dame any better in this situation.  They had plenty of chances to come clean before they had to, and they chose every day not to do that.  They lied every day they didn't tell the truth.

Shame on them for lying, and at this point, I guess shame on us for believing the story to start with.  By now, we as sports fans should know that if it sounds too good to be true, then it probably is a lie.

When we are kids we grow up hearing fairy tales, and even though we stop believing in Santa Clause and the Tooth Fairy as adults, we still want to believe.  We want to believe that a man can beat cancer and come all the way back to dominate a high endurance sport like cycling.  We want to believe that the human spirit can carry a young man through the darkest days of his life, and help him achieve greatness on the football field.    The truth is that it is all a mirage.

We watch sports so we can live vicariously through these athletes that we put on a pedestal.  Their success is our success.  Their heartbreak is our heartbreak.  I'm not saying that it is bad, but it leads us into believing the best of people and being disappointed when we learn that our heroes are simply people that are flawed just like we are.

I think Armstrong is pathetic and I think he owes other cancer survivors an apology for cashing in on his disease   I think Te'o is a fraud, and I would think twice about drafting him if I were an NFL general manager.  I wish I could say that I won't be sucked in the next time one of these stories come along, but I can't.  I just hope that this is the end of it for now.

I mean how could it get worse?  The "Miracle on Ice" was fixed?  Babe Ruth was just stretching, not pointing, when he called his shot?  Did the Giants really win the pinnate?

I'm tired of hearing fake apologies   Just once, I wish one of these guys would come out and say, "Yep, I cheated because I wasn't good enough on my own.  You got me.  But the truth is that I would do it again in a heartbeat if given the chance."

Maybe it is wrong, but I would cheer for that guy.

NFL Divisional Playoffs

What is a legacy as it pertains to sports?  Who decides what your legacy is?  And how long do you get before your legacy is already written?

After yesterday's game between the Broncos and the Ravens I started thinking about these questions.  I was watching SportsCenter last night and in their first segment analyzing why the Ravens won the game, ESPN showed Peyton Manning's post game press conference and broke down the interception he threw right before the end of the first overtime period.  After breaking that play down, they spent about half as much time talking about the blown coverage in Denver's secondary at the end of regulation that sent the game to overtime.

As I talked about last week, ESPN has way too much power over what we think about sports, and I think this is a perfect example.  What ESPN would have you believe is that Peyton Manning was the primary reason that Denver lost the game in overtime.  Why? Well because that is just a more intriguing story.

Herein lies the problem.  Because every game is on TV now, shows like SportsCenter can show you what happened, but the reason that people tune in is to hear why it happened and what it means.  So ESPN is forced to then draw a conclusion about yesterday's game that goes well beyond the game yesterday.

They give you the statistic that Peyton Manning has now tied Bret Farve for the most losses in playoff history.  The implication is that Manning is less of a quarterback because of his playoff losses, but you skip over the fact that he has been in the playoffs so many times in his career.  The NFL is built for parity  they want every team to go 8-8.  With the worst team getting the first pick and the best team getting the last pick in the draft, sustained excellence is not the norm in the NFL.

So what is more indicative of Manning as a quarterback the fact that he has lost a lot in the playoffs or the fact that in his career Manning has only missed the playoffs twice and one of those times was his rookie season?

The conclusion we are supposed to draw from yesterday's game is that Manning, who threw 3 touchdowns and almost threw for 300 yards would be a better quarterback if Broncos safety Rahim Moore would have done his job on the last drive of regulation?

Here is another example.  Aaron Murray, who has thrown more touchdowns than any other quarterback in UGA history, is a loser.  Murray started as a freshman behind an offensive line that could be described as simply offensive.  Murray spent most of his year running for his life and trying to keep up in the fast paced action of the SEC.  The team went 6-7 that season.  A year later, Murray lead the Dawgs to a 10-2 regular season and Murray played well enough in the first half of the SEC Championship Game to give Georgia a real chance to win against the number one LSU Tigers.

Last season, Georgia was spectacular and Murray was their leader.  Georgia played a fantastic game against eventual National Champion, Alabama.  Murray led the Dawgs on a dramatic, last-minute drive in search of victory but came up 5 yards short on a tipped pass that was caught by Chris Connelly in bounds when Georgia was out of timeouts.  With the way Alabama handled Notre Dame in the title game, I don't think there is much doubt that Georgia would have beaten the Irish if they had made it to that game.  So, because a ball got tipped at the line of scrimmage, Aaron Murray is a loser who can't win the big one.  These are the types of conclusions that we draw because we have to, but most of the time they are inaccurate.

All of that leads me to today.  Matt Ryan and Mike Smith have been at the helm of an amazing turnaround for the Falcons over the last five seasons.  Before Ryan and Smith's first year, in 2008, the Falcons had only 9 winning seasons in team history and had never had two winning seasons in a row.  Since 2008 the Falcons have had five consecutive winning seasons, four playoff appearances, and two division titles.  However, in their three previous playoff appearances they lost their first game to teams that have gone to the Super Bowl.  In 2010 and 2011 the Falcons lost to the eventual Super Bowl Champions.

The narrative in the media this week has been all about the Seahawks and their rookie quarterback Russel Wilson.  Wilson led the Seahawks to an amazing season this year and they had a great win last week on the road over RGIII and the Redskins.  You could point out that Wilson now has one more playoff win than Ryan does.  But to blame Ryan for the Falcons losses is ridiculous.

In his five seasons, Ryan has averaged winning 11 games per season and this year, he has been the reason the Falcons have won.  Wilson on the other hand has thrown less passes than any other starting quarterback in the league this season.  Wilson has been asked to not lose games, but he has rarely been the reason that the Seahawks have won games.

You never know what could happen in the playoffs, but I think the Falcons are ready to get their first playoff win.  I know that the Seahawks defense is really good, but I think their physical cornerbacks might actually be a detriment today.  If you try to get your hands on Julio and Roddy at the line you sure as heck better get the job done, because they can burn you down field if you don't.

But if for some reason the Falcons don't win the game today, please don't write the book on Matt Ryan and Mike Smith tonight.  Winning a Super Bowl has to be the ultimate goal, but only one team a year gets to do that.  Falcon fans should take a minute to remember how terrible it was to be a Falcon fan for so much of their history.  The fans want to win the Super Bowl, but isn't it nice to shoot for that goal each year, rather than just hoping that the Falcons will be good enough to sell out home games so you can watch them on TV?

A legacy is something made over the course of a career, not something won on a Sunday afternoon.  Matt Ryan is the best quarterback that the Falcons have ever have and Mike Smith is quickly becoming the best coach in the franchise's history.

The Falcons are one win away from hosting the NFC Championship Game for the first time in their history, time to rise up and get it done!

Final Thoughts on 2012 College Football Season

In the interest of full disclosure, I would like to say that I went to bed during the 3rd quarter of last night's game.  It was an anti-climatic way to end one of the best college football seasons that I can remember.

Each year it seems like the season goes by so fast, but when you think back on what we all thought in September, you realize how much has changed.

Remember when Geno Smith was the runaway Heisman trophy leader?  Remember when USC was expected to play for the National Championship?  Remember when no one knew who Johnny Football was?

The day after the National Championship, we now know everything.

After watching an entire season and way too many bowl games here is my final assessment of college football in 2012.

Alabama was, once again, the best team in college football.  But more than Alabama being the best team, I am convinced that Nick Saban is the best coach in college football.  Saban now has 4 national titles, which is tied for second all time only trailing Bear Bryant.  I'm going to say right now, whether or not Saban ever gets to Bryant's six, Saban is the best college football coach ever.

Bear Bryant coached in what I like to call (appropriately) the Notre Dame Era of college football.  This was the era dominated by the Fighting Irish, obviously, but its main characteristic was that it was all about tradition.  If you were Catholic and you played football, you went to Notre Dame if they would have you.  If you grew up in the south, and you were recruited by Bear Bryant, people would come over to your house to look at your phone, because that was the phone that Bear Bryant called.  There was nothing wrong with this era, but the fact is that there was no where near the level of competition that exists today.  You had a hand full of programs that were dominant, and that dominance begat more dominance.

Nick Saban is the best coach in college football because he is dominating what I call the Professional Era of College Football.  Unlike the previous eras, the Professional Era's key characteristic is that money, success, and fame are it's driving influences.  With almost every game televised either on cable or on the internet, there are kids from all parts of the country that have favorite teams on the other side of the nation.  The college football world has become smaller and much more competitive.  However, in this era of glitz, glammer, and all about me football, Saban has managed to sell his "program" to a group of talented players who buy in with  completely.  The Alabama football program, the way they recruit, the way they practice, the way they play, and the way they win is the envy of every other program in the country.  It sounds simple, but if it were then everyone would be doing it.  Saban's attention to detail and relentless pursuit of perfection drives the Alabama program daily, and his personality, while not fun at parties, is ideal for the profession he has chosen.

The second story line of the 2012 season is the SEC's continued dominance over college football.  Seven straight national titles is unprecedented, but it doesn't tell the whole story.  In the final AP poll of 2012, the SEC had 5 teams ranked in the top 9, with 7 teams in the top 25.  If you want to know what makes the SEC the best conference in the nation you only have to think of one word: depth.

Depth of quality teams.  In any given year, the champion from any other conference could beat the SEC Champion, but when you go team for team through the conference, the SEC is winning more head to head match-ups with the any other conference in the country.  Just think about the stat I gave you earlier.  5 SEC teams ranked in the top 9.

Depth of quality coaches.  We have talked about Saban already, but consider that Les Miles and Steve Spurrier both have national titles.  Gene Chizik was just fired two years after winning a national title, because he couldn't keep up in the SEC.  Contrast that with Mack Brown, who won a title in 2005 and played for a title in 2009.  Brown hasn't won a conference title since, but his job is safe because in any other league in America, they have rational expectations about winning championships.  Mark Richt is constantly criticized, not because he doesn't win games, but because he hasn't won a title.  Kirby Smart is the best defensive coordinator in college football, and he could have had any open head coaching job he wanted this year, but he wants the right job (which is probably Alabama after Saban leaves) so he stays.

Depth of players is the real key.  There are more current NFL players from the SEC than any other league.  10 of the first 32 picks in last year's draft were from SEC schools.  Currently ESPN has 5 SEC schools in the top 10 in recruiting classes for 2013.  It's not that the SEC gets all the great players, its just that the SEC gets more great players.

My third big observation at the end of this season is that ESPN has become too big for their britches.  If I could, I would bring ESPN to court and charge them with over-hype.  All you heard about before the national title game was Notre Dame.  They did a PTI show that recounted all of the stories PTI had done on Notre Dame over the past 10 years.  During the game last night, Musberger was basically begging Notre Dame to come back and make a game of it.  I'm not saying ESPN was in love with Notre Dame, you just have to be aware of the unabashed way that ESPN reports "news."  With shows like SportsCenter doing reports from games that ESPN will be broadcasting, you have to recognize that they have a financial interest in drumming up ratings for their own network.  Ratings bring in advertising dollars, which is how ESPN can pay so much money to get games on their networks.  It is a cycle of hype where "The world wide leader in sports" determines so much of what we care about.  My goal from now on is to try to call ESPN out on the over-hype when it is happening.

We now have one more season under the current BCS system before the 2014 playoff occurs.  The BCS has been the system in college football since 1998, which means that for most of my life, I have seen this system in action.  The BCS was created because it was so much better than the alternative.  Before the BCS we had a system where conference champions were slated to go to specific bowls and many times more than one team would be undefeated or there would be a legitimate question about who was the best team.  The BCS was created to match up number one versus number two, and it has done that extremely well over the course of time.  I can only think of two years, 2003 and 2004, when the system didn't work so well and in each of those years there were three teams with legitimate claims for being number one going into the bowl games.  The looming playoff will be another step in the evolution of college football, but it won't be perfect.  Just talking with friends, it's hard enough to come to any sort of agreement about who is the best team.  I'm not sure how the proposed committee will do much better.

After watching all the games and seeing how the season played out here is my final Top 10 of 2012:
1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Notre Dame
4. Georgia
5. Ohio State
6. Stanford
7. Texas A&M'
8. Florida
9. Kansas State
10. Clemson

There will still be a lot of players deciding to go to the NFL in the coming days, but here is my way too early Top 10 for 2013:
1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Ohio State
4. Georgia
5. Stanford
6. Clemson
7. Texas A&M
8. Florida
9. Louisville
10. Notre Dame

Signing day is exactly 4 weeks from tomorrow and spring practice will start sooner than you think.  College Football is now a year-round sport, but as the 2012 season comes to a close, shattered dreams turn to renewed hope.

GO DAWGS!

234 Days until UGA v. Clemson

So I hear there is a game tomorrow night.  Not in my world.  So, 234 days until Georgia travels to Death Valley to play the Clemson Tigers in what should be the most anticipated game of college football's opening weekend.

There is nothing like the future to take your mind off of the past, or in this case, the present.

With Aaron Murray announcing tonight, via Twitter, that he will be returning for his senior season, there is no reason for the expectations for Georgia to lower one bit.  Every Bulldog fan should expect to be playing in the SEC Championship Game with a chance to play for a National Title.

The schedule is more difficult next year, but I think it is manageable.  Georgia opens with Clemson, then comes home to play South Carolina.  No matter what happens in Death Valley, these Georgia players won't forget 35-7 and they will be ready to play.  This senior class could be the first in school history to never beat South Carolina.

After a cupcake and an off week, Georgia gets to shut up the critics by hosting LSU.  Georgia has been criticized for not playing a hard enough schedule, though it is completely out of their control.  FYI, South Carolina doesn't play LSU, Alabama, or Texas A&M next season, so if Carolina doesn't make it to Atlanta, then Spurrier will need a new excuse.

That schedule, I would wager, is the most difficult September schedule in college football.  It does get much better after October begins.  Georgia travels to Knoxville, hosts Missouri, and travels to Vanderbilt before having another bye week (there is an extra week of fall next year, so everyone gets two byes) before the Cocktail Party.  Florida will already have at least one loss by the time that game happens, maybe two.

Georgia then hosts Appalachian State, travels back to Auburn (second year in a row), hosts Kentucky, and then travels to North Avenue for the annual bee extermination.

In conference all of Georgia's big games are at home, with the exception of the neutral site in Jacksonville of course.  Georgia will have a senior quarterback leading an offense that should be the most prolific in school history.  Georgia will have a talented defense that despite losing some big name players, has a great deal of experience.  Georgia will be welcoming a Top 10 recruiting class, and I think this year is a great example of the impact freshman can make.

In summary, Georgia will have another chance to take what they came so close to having this year.  This year's team motto was "Our Team, Our Time, No Regrets."

For 2013, may I suggest "Unfinished Business."

Like I said earlier, 234 days until we travel to Death Valley.  I'll be counting every one of them.

GO DAWGS!!!  

New Year, Old Regrets

The New Year is supposed to be about moving on and looking forward to the future, but as the Georgia Bulldogs are just hours away from playing their last game of the 2012-2013 season, I can't stop looking back.

You cannot overstate how great of a season we had in Athens.  Do you realize that Georgia has reclaimed Sanford Stadium as a true home field advantage.  Georgia has won 12 straight games at home.  Why is this so important? Well two of Georgia's biggest games of the season next year just happen to be at home against South Carolina and LSU.  South Carolina was the last team to beat Georgia in Athens at the beginning of the 2011 season.

Georgia also beat Florida for the second consecutive season, the first time that has happened since before Bill Clinton was President.  Georgia welcomed Missouri to "Old Man Football" in the SEC by showing them that it takes 4 full quarters to win in this league.  Georgia's offense set records at the beginning of the season by scoring 40 + points in their first five games of the season.

Aaron Murray has now thrown more touchdowns than any other quarterback in Georgia history.  Todd Gurley became just the second freshman to run for over a 1000 yards, you know who the other guy was.  Jarvis Jones proved once and for all that he is super-human, and Alec Ogletree proved that he can be the best player on any field in the SEC if he can manage to stay out of trouble.  Most importantly, Marshall Morgan proved that while chicks might dig the long ball (kicking long field goals), making extra points is sexy too, and not to be taken for granted.

At the coaching level, Georgia has a great mix of coaches (minus Rodney Garner now) that seem to have the program back to the level that Richt was at in the early and mid 2000's.  In the last two regular seasons Georgia is 21-3 with none of those three losses coming to our traditional rivals.  21-3.  Don't forget that Georgia lost 7 games in 2010.  The program is back where it belongs.

BUT!!!!!!!

I still get sick when I think about the SEC Championship Game.  Slow down the run in the third quarter just a little bit and we win the game.  Make the field goal in the first half, and we win the game.  Cover their receiver on the only significant pass play of the entire game, and we win the game.  Let the ball drop Chris, and we win the game.  Spike the ball, and we win the game.

There is a theory in science that there are alternate worlds constantly playing out in other dimensions   How much to take a trip for the next week to the reality where Georgia completes the greatest pass in school history to Malcolm Mitchell in the back of the end zone  winning the SEC Championship over a great Alabama team and their great coach, and goes on to stomp Notre Dame in the National Title Game?  Let yourself go there for a minute.  How does that feel?  Nice right?

Well here is another alternate reality that I have been thinking about in the last few days.  After dominating Nebraska in the Capital One Bowl on Tuesday, Georgia calls a press conference for Friday morning back in Athens.

Sitting at a table with the Georgia logo behind them are Aaron Murray, Jarvis Jones, Alec Ogletree, and Kwame Geathers.  Jarvis stands up and walks to the microphone and the other players stand up behind him. He says that he has loved every minute of being a Georgia Bulldog, but one of his dreams is to play in the NFL.  He thanks the coaches for the time that have spent helping him recover from his injury as well as the time to help him become the player he is today.  Jarvis begins to get emotional.  He steps back from the podium.  Aaron Murray puts his hand on Jarvis' shoulder and steps up to the microphone.  Aaron says he has done a lot of thinking about his decision, and he talked to his fellow juniors.  He said that they all think about the SEC Championship Game every day and have a sick feeling in their stomachs.  He says that when you are 60 years old and you look down at your grand children and tell them about your football career, they aren't going to be impressed that you were a first round draft pick.  But when you pull that ring off of your finger, hand it to them, and let them read that it says National Champions 2013 Georgia Bulldogs, and watch the way their eyes light up, you know you made the right decision.  He then announces that for that reason, all four of the players at the press conference are coming back to school next year for one reason: to finish what they started, to gain those last 8 yards.

I know it won't happen, but spoil yourself a little, and go there for a bit.  You deserve it.

Happy New Year and GO DAWGS!