SEC Picture and Predictions

Alabama’s loss to LSU yesterday means that the path to Atlanta and the SEC title game is wide open. Five different teams could still end up playing for the title in the Georgia Dome.

Here are the scenarios:

Simplest Route: Three teams control their destiny.

For South Carolina and Steve Spurrier, it is simple: beat Florida and make history. South Carolina is one of four SEC schools to have never played in the SEC championship game, which started in 1992. One win against the Gators would clinch South Carolina’s spot, and justify Spurrier going to Columbia in the first place. The loss on Saturday to Arkansas means nothing for South Carolina who would have had to beat Florida to make it to Atlanta either way. (FYI Dawg fans, had Georgia beaten Florida, Georgia would be a South Carolina loss to Florida away from playing in Atlanta, even if they lose to Auburn…)

Florida’s route is just as simple. Beat South Carolina in Columbia on Saturday, and you go back to Atlanta for the 3rd straight year.

Auburn is the other team that controls their destiny. All Auburn has to do is beat either Georgia or Alabama and they will play in Atlanta.

A little more complicated:

LSU’s route to Atlanta is more difficult. First, they need to win out, which means beating Ole Miss and Arkansas to finish their season. Secondly, LSU needs Auburn to lose their final two games, which would mean losing to Georgia and Alabama. In this scenario, LSU would finish with one conference loss while Auburn and Alabama would finish with two conference losses.

So you are saying there is a chance:

Alabama needs as much luck as you can have over the next three weeks to find themselves in another SEC title game. Like Arkansas, Bama first has to win out, which would include beating Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Secondly, Bama needs Auburn to lose to Georgia this weekend. Lastly, Alabama would then need LSU to lose to Arkansas or Ole Miss, giving the Tigers two losses. In this scenario, all three teams would have two losses, and all three would have beaten each other, but no team would have loss to both teams. Confused? Look at it this way:

Auburn would have beaten LSU.
LSU would have beaten Alabama.
Alabama would have beaten Auburn.
AND all three would have one more loss.

Since there would be a three-way tie, with no team losing to both of the other teams in the three way tie, we would go to the second tie breaker, which is record within the Western Division of the SEC. Auburn would be 4-1, Alabama would be 4-1, while LSU would be 3-2. This would eliminate LSU, and then the tiebreaker would be head to head between Alabama and Auburn, which Alabama would win by way of their supposed victory in the Iron Bowl.

Not exactly the most likely scenario, but still possible for Tide fans.

Here is what is going to happen.

Auburn will win one of its last two games and return to the SEC title game for the first time since 2004, when the Tigers went undefeated but got left out of the National Title game.


Florida will rise from the dead and crush the hearts of Gamecock fans by beating South Carolina this weekend and punching their ticket for Atlanta again. I am not rooting for the Gators, but history tells us that South Carolina cannot win in November, when it counts. There has not been a game that has counted more for South Carolina in the past twenty years, and I am almost sure they will wet their pants.

Too bad for South Carolina. Even though Lattimore is just a freshman and Garcia is only a junior, they will never get this close to an SEC title game again. Florida will be much better next year when their young players are a year older. Tennessee will improve under Derek Dooley. Kentucky (who beat South Carolina this year) will continue to be good. And the Dawgs are a heck of a lot better than their record and they will be an real contender next year.

I am rooting for South Carolina this weekend, because every school should get a chance to be in the spotlight, and this is the last spotlight the Chickens will see for a very long time.