College Football Preview: Alabama

Alabama

2012 Record:  13-1 (7-1 in the SEC)                                   def Notre Dame 42-14 in National Title Game

2012 Recap:

What can you say about Bama’s 2012 season other than wow.  Nick Saban managed to lose a game at home in the SEC for the second consecutive year and still win the National Championship.  The Tide’s lone loss came at home to Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M. 

Bama had the nation’s top defense in points allowed to go along with two running backs that went for over 1000 yards last season.

After the loss to A&M, Alabama got back in the title picture when Oregon lost to Stanford.  Bama had their own scare in the SEC title game, but survived late against Georgia to clinch their spot in the title game.

In Miami, the Tide rolled against Notre Dame in a blowout 42-14.  The sad part of the score is that the game was never really that close.  Notre Dame was simply outclassed in every area of the game.

For the third time in 4 seasons, Alabama was at the top of the college football world.

The Schedule:

What do you give the team that has everything? Well if you are the two time defending national champions, apparently the SEC gives you what can only be described as an amazingly easy schedule. 

When you look at Bama’s schedule in 2013, it starts and begins with a trip to College Station, Texas on September 14.  After opening against Virginia Tech in the Georgia Dome on August 31^st, and then a bye week, the Tide roll into College Station for the rematch of last season’s upset against Texas A&M. 

The Aggies believe that this game will put them on track for the National Title, but the Tide have revenge on their minds.

After the A&M game, there’s seemingly not much trouble on Bama’s schedule.  They play Ole Miss at home in late September, and draw Kentucky from the East.  They also play Tennessee, Arkansas, and LSU at home, but as we have seen the last few years, Bama can lose at home.  Their most difficult road game outside of the trip to College Station will be against Mississippi State on November 16^th. 

Not only does Bama catch a break by drawing Kentucky out of the East as opposed to one of the big boys, they get bye weeks before both Texas A&M and LSU. 

Key Returner:

So many good players return for Alabama.  You could go with AJ McCarron who has two national titles to his name and could go down as one of the greatest quarterbacks in college football history with another title this season.  You could go with TJ Yeldon who rushed for 1100 yards last season and 12 touchdowns.  You could even say Cyrus Kouandjio who might be the best offensive linemen in college football.  You could go with any of those guys and a few others, but you would be lying to yourself.

The key returner for Alabama is Nick Saban.  Never, in the history of college football has one coach meant so much to winning.  Saban wins the SEC in his second season at LSU in 2001 beating Tennessee in the title game, which knocked them out of the National Championship game.  In 2003, Saban wins the National Title with LSU, their first since 1958.  In 2007, he goes to Alabama and just one year later he has the Tide playing Florida in the SEC title game for a chance to play for the National Title.  Saban and the Tide beat Florida a year later to win the SEC, and then beat Texas to win the National title.  In 2011 and 2012, Saban was able to overcome home losses in conference to win National Titles.  Saban has 4 National Titles in 10 years of coaching in America’s best conference.

As long as Saban is at Alabama, the Tide will be in the mix for the National Title, but be honest, don’t you want to see him go to Vanderbilt and try to win there?

Key Loss:

I’ll go with Eddy Lacy and here’s why.  Despite the fact that AJ McCarron is a very good quarterback and Amare Cooper is a very good wide receiver, the Tide have won their national titles with the running game.  Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson, and then Eddy Lacy.  Now Lacy is gone and TJ Yeldon is the number one guy.  Alabama has stockpiled running backs through the past few recruiting cycles, but their hit rate on running backs is pretty much unsustainable.  At some point, they are going to miss with one of these big recruits, and with an offense that is centered on the running game, they might not have the luxury of having a drop off at running back and still winning.  Just look at the SEC title game last season, if Lacy doesn't go absolutely crazy in the third quarter of that game, just when Georgia had returned a blocked kick for a touchdown, then Bama might not win that game. 

As good as McCarron is, it has always taken two backs for Bama to win.  You know you have Yeldon, but you don’t know what you have behind him, and that is a big question mark.

Success will be:

The bar could not be set any higher than it is at Alabama.  Not only are the Tide expected to win the National Title again in 2013, a loss, any loss, even a loss to a Top 10 team on the road (See Texas A&M on September 14^th) will be seen as a huge upset.  Alabama is the preseason number one and it was pretty close to being unanimous, but being number one at the end of the season is the only thing that will satisfy the new most annoying fan base in sports.  Move over Yankee fans, make room, and a lot of room, for Tide Nation.

2013 Prediction:

Predicting a team to go undefeated in the SEC, win the SEC title game, and then win the National Title is hard to do.  I wouldn't be shocked if Bama lost a game this season, maybe even to Ole Miss in September, but I can make one guarantee that I will stand by from now until the day of the game: there is no way Alabama is going to lose to Texas A&M.  I don’t know what the line will be, but I’ll lay the points and take the Tide straight up.  In fact, I don’t think it is going to be close, at least 2 touchdowns. 

The problem Alabama has in 2013 is that history is against them.  Never, in the modern history of college football (since 1950) has a team won three straight National Titles.  Alabama is really good and Saban is the best coach in America, but it takes more than talent to win a title, it takes a bit of luck. Luck like getting a rematch with LSU in 2011.  Luck like having just enough teams lose in front of them to get back in the title picture last season.  Luck like having the starting quarterback of the opposing team get knocked out of the National Title game.  The talent is still there, but you would have to think that the luck has to be running out.  The boldest prediction I can make is that Alabama will NOT win a third consecutive National Title.

It's never too early!

It's never too early to look ahead to the college football season.  Just think about it. May is practically gone, so all we have to get through is June and July.  Fall practice will be here before you know it.

As usual there are no shortage of story lines heading into the 2013 season.

1. Three in a row?

There is only one logical place to start when you are thinking about the 2013 season: Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide are trying to do something that hasn't been done in the modern age of college football.  Since 1950, no team has won three consecutive consensus national championships. I use that phrasing on purpose, because if you look at wikipedia.com and see how many organizations used crowned a champion in college football each year, you will rethink your position on the BCS.

Bama will have to replace some key pieces on what was one of the best offensive lines in college football history.  Bama also lost some defensive pieces, as well as stud running back Eddy Lacy.  However, the Tide do return senior quarterback AJ McCarron and his lovely girlfriend, that Brent Musburger is still raving about.

The schedule for Alabama is intriguing to say the least.  Bama opens in their home away from home, the Georgia Dome, against Virginia Tech.  It is a good situation for Bama, because Virginia Tech is a big name, but there is no similarity in the talent levels of the two schools.  After a bye week following the opener, Bama heads to College Station, Texas to face A&M in what should be a fantastic game.  Other than the A&M game, Alabama's toughest road game will probably be against Mississippi State in November, and the Tide do close the season at Auburn.  Alabama plays both LSU and Tennessee at home in 2013.

There is a reason that teams don't win three national titles in a row, but if any team, and any coach, can get the job done, it is Alabama and Nick Saban.

2. Do I hear 9?

The dominance of the SEC in college football is one of the most heated topics in recent history.  It is amazing how many fans and coaches feel like the respect given to the SEC is unwarranted.  Obviously I am a huge SEC fan, but I truly believe that I could respect what the league is doing even if I were a fan of another conference.  With teams like Alabama, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Texas A&M, and LSU there is no reason to think that an SEC school won't play their way into the national title game, and there is no reason to think, once there, they won't win the game.
In the BCS era only one SEC school has lost a national title game: LSU, in 2012, to Alabama.  Be frustrated with the streak, be aggravated about the coverage the league gets on ESPN, be envious about the benefit of the doubt given to the league because of their reputation, but please, please, respect the streak.

3. If not the SEC, then who?

If the SEC's streak of national champions is going to come to an end in the 2013 season, who are the most likely candidates to end the streak? There are two types of candidates in my opinion, the teams that could be undefeated because they hardly play anyone, and the teams that are going to be very good but have to win some big games.

Ohio State, coming off an undefeated season where they were ineligible for the national championship because their players traded memorabilia for tattoos, would fall under the first category.  With non-conference games against Buffalo, San Diego State, Cal, and Florida A&M, Ohio State only has to navigate through the meager Big 10 to find its way to the national title game.  The Buckeyes two biggest road games will be at Northwestern (no that is not a joke) and to end the season at Michigan.  Ohio State plays Wisconsin and Penn State at home and miss Nebraska entirely, though they might have to play Nebraska in the Big 10 title game.

Two teams jump out to me in the second category: Clemson and Stanford.

Stanford plays Washington, Oregon, and Notre Dame all at home this season, with their toughest road tests coming against Oregon State and USC.  The Cardinal didn't miss a beat after losing Jim Harbaugh and Andrew Luck last season and there is no reason to think that they won't be right in the middle of the national title picture again this season.

If Clemson is undefeated at the end of the season they will have made it through one of the most difficult schedules in the country.  Clemson starts the season at  home with Georgia.  They host Florida State and Georgia Tech during the middle of the season and finish up by playing at South Carolina.  Two games that might be dangerous for the Tigers are against NC State in Raleigh and against Syracuse in the Carrier Dome.

If I had to pick one team it would be Ohio State.  They will look good demolishing the Big 10, and Urban Meyer gives them more credibility nationally.  As an SEC fan, I pray for Ohio State against an SEC team in the title game again.  It worked out so well for Florida in 2006 and LSU in 2007.

4. Will the Luck of the Irish strike again?

Notre Dame fell back to earth hard in Miami against Alabama.  It had been a dream season for the Irish, but just take a moment to think about how close that season was to coming off the rails.  It took overtime and one of the most questionable goal line calls I can remember for Notre Dame to beat Stanford last year.  The Irish should have lost to Pitt at home but the Pitt kicker missed a game winning field goal in double overtime.

This season, Notre Dame loses Te'o and his inspirational story... oh wait, yeah.  Well they will have some holes to fill on the defense, and the schedule is pretty difficult.  At Michigan at the begining of the season and at Stanford at the end of the season will be the toughest road games for Notre Dame, but the list of teams coming to South Bend this season will raise some eyebrows.  Oklahoma, Michigan State, USC, and don't look past BYU who gave Notre Dame all they could handle last year.

Might be a tough fall for the Irish.

5. Here's Johnny!

On an individual level, no player has burst onto the scene quicker and with more flash than Johnny Manziel did last year. Johnny football took A&M to the top of the college football world in 2012, beating Alabama and thrashing Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl in the team's very first year in the SEC.  Just think, if A&M could have held on to beat Florida in the second game of the season last year, then it would have been Texas A&M facing Georgia in the SEC title game, not Alabama.

The A&M fan base has huge expectations for 2013.  They truly believe that the game between A&M and Alabama in the third week of the season is a defacto national title game.  Other than the now traditional games against LSU (in Baton Rouge) and Alabama (in College Station) the schedule is manageable.  The Aggies draw Vanderbilt out of the East along with their "natural rival" Missouri.  Road games at Arkansas and at Ole Miss in back to back weeks could be a problem.

For Manziel, there is really no way to top the season he just had.  Maybe he will win a second Heisman, but I doubt it.  He has spent the majority of the off season enjoying being Johnny Manziel.  He went to the Super Bowl, spent a lot of time at the beach and on other vacations, all the while taking online classes because it was just too hard for him to take class on campus, you know being Johnny Manziel and all.

Reality will hit Manziel and the Aggies this fall.  You don't get your left tackle drafted #2 overall and not miss a beat.  Not to mention that Johnny Football has now decided he wants to be a pocket passer, because he is eligible to enter the 2014 draft.  On top of all of that, what do you think is the one thing that Nick Saban has been able to motivate his team with this off season?  Perhaps it was the only loss that Alabama suffered last season?  The Aggies are going to be very good in 2013, but they are looking at the Cotton Bowl again, not that there's anything wrong with that.

So Far, So So Good

The baseball season is long, but after two games of the Braves season, I think we can safely say that this is exactly what Frank Wren had in mind when he put this team together.

Through two games the Braves have beaten the Phillies twice.  The Braves have hit 6 home runs, scored 16 runs, and have struck out a whopping 24 times.  That means strike outs account for half of all the Braves outs recorded in the first two games.  So all of the pundit were right, the Braves are going to strike out a lot, but right now, it looks like they are going to win a lot as well.

The Braves have had all of this offensive success against Cole Hamels, who the Phillies just signed to be their ace for years to come, and Roy Halladay who was the Phillies ace in years gone by.

Obviously Halladay isn't the same pitcher that he was a few years ago, but that just makes my point even more.  The thought going into the season was that the Nationals were the clear favorite to win the division, while the Braves and Phillies would battle for second.  I'm not ringing the bell on the Phillies, but I think its obvious that Halladay is going to be a major concern for them going forward, and their offense doesn't seem to have the top to bottom danger that they have had in the past.

One thing the Phillies do have is money.  If they are in the race at the All Star Break, they will make a move to improve their team, the Braves don't always have that flexibility.

Maholm was good last night, and Hudson was good on Monday even though he had to be pulled in the 5th.  This pitching staff will be plenty good enough with the offense scoring runs.  Freddie Freeman has started out blazing hot.  The only two concerns through the first two games has been BJ Upton and Anderlton Simmons.  But that is the luxury this team has over past Braves teams.  Its not taking 3 or 4 hits in a row to score a run, so if a guy or two is struggling, it doesn't completely cripple your offense.

As the season progresses, I think the fact that the Braves have such a good offense will actually help guys struggle a lot less at the plate.  No one player is ever going to be put in a position that he has to produce for the Braves to win, thus, guys can go up to the plate and just do what they know they can do, without the added pressure of having to do it all by themselves.

Last night on the broadcast, Joe and Chip were saying that Brian McCann is hitting the ball to all fields and plans are for him to return in about two weeks.  Not that Laird and Gattis are filling in nicely so far, but can you imagine putting Brian McCann in this lineup if he at 100%? The groan you just heard was the sound of starting pitchers all across the National League.  My only question is who is going to hit 8th?

Its early, very early, but this team is exactly what I hoped it would be.  And they are fun to watch.

I hope this rain gets out of here before first pitch tonight, because, oh yeah, the Braves best starting pitcher, Kris Medlen, takes the hill for the first time this season tonight as the Braves go for a sweep of the Phillies against the third "ace" of the Phillies staff, Cliff Lee.

Get out your rain jackets and your brooms!

GO BRAVES!!!