As we approach another college football season, I feel
compelled once again to do the small public service of reminding college
football fans that the number one key to enjoying the coming season is to have
the proper perspective and expectations for your team.
Here in Athens, there is an unusual hesitation that seems to
be hanging over the 2015 season. Going back to 2012, Georgia has been expected
to finish the season at the top of the SEC East and in contention for the
National Championship. A few weeks ago, the sports writers that gathered in
Birmingham, Alabama for SEC Media Days voted Georgia as the favorite to win the
Eastern Division again this season, but it has been nearly 3 years since
Georgia played in the SEC title game, and there is no way to look at the past
two seasons as anything but disappointments.
There are so many reasons for Georgia fans to expect this
year to be a special season, but in many ways, those expectations seem to have
become more habit than anything else.
The reality of the 2015 season is that we lost the best
running back in the country in Todd Gurley, we have a first year offensive
coordinator coaching who will be trying to break in a new quarterback for the
second consecutive season, the defense made huge strides last year, but there were
plenty of holes throughout the year, the kicking game and special teams
improved over the disaster that was the 2013 season, but in the biggest moment
of the 2014 season, on the road at a wounded South Carolina, two missed field
goals doomed the entire 2014 campaign.
Those who fail to study history are doomed to repeat it, and
for Georgia, that means facing the uncomfortable facts head on. For two seasons
running, Georgia has at least one inexplicable loss each year. In 2013, Georgia
lost at home to Missouri in a game that the Dawgs didn’t seem prepared for, and
then followed that performance up with an inexcusable loss on the road at
Vanderbilt.
Last season, Georgia was unable to beat a beatable South
Carolina in Columbia, but the real disasters were in Jacksonville, where
Georgia was unbelievably bad and the home finale with Tech, when the Dawgs
managed to rip defeat from the jaws of victory with the squib kick heard around
the peach state.
Early in the Richt Era, Georgia had a reputation for going
on the road and winning big games. Georgia earned that reputation by winning in
Knoxville in 2001, 2003, and 2005, by shutting out Clemson on the road to open
the 2003 season, by coming back from a 16 point deficit to win at South
Carolina in 2004, then shutting out the Gamecocks in Columbia two years later,
Georgia won in Tuscaloosa for the first time ever in 2002, then “walked off”
against the Tide in overtime in 2007, Georgia has never lost to Tech in Atlanta
under Mark Richt. A reputation isn’t built or dismantled in one game or one
season, but over the past two years, Georgia has earned the reputation of a
team that is going to have a bad loss at some point of the season. It will be
imperative that Mark Richt changes that reputation in 2015.
When looking ahead to the new season, you have to start with
the schedule. Georgia’s schedule sets up nicely for the month of September as
the Dawgs open at home against Louisiana Monroe before opening up SEC play on
the road against Vanderbilt. Both of those games should be easy wins for
Georgia. The Dawgs have those two games to work out some kinks before coming
home to play South Carolina on September 19th. Georgia is better
than South Carolina and they will be playing at home, so Georgia should be
expected to win that game. The Dawgs finish out the month of September by
hosting Southern University on September 29th.
The 2015 season will be decided in October. Georgia hosts
Alabama on October 3rd for the first time since the infamous “Blackout”
game in 2008 when the Tide destroyed the Dawgs. The next week, Georgia heads to
Rocky Top to take on the trendy pick to win the SEC East, Tennessee. The last
time Georgia played in Knoxville, in 2013, it took an overtime miracle for
Georgia to leave with a victory. Tennessee will have this game circled as a
program-shifting opportunity to put themselves back in the conversation for the
SEC title. The following week, Georgia returns home to host the two-time
defending SEC East Champion, Missouri Tigers. Since Missouri came into the SEC
in 2012, the home team hasn’t won a game in this series. Last year, Georgia
humiliated the Tigers, but Missouri managed to get into the SEC title game
because they ran the table in the SEC, while Georgia had two, ugly losses to
Florida and South Carolina. October ends, literally, with Georgia v. Florida in
Jacksonville on Halloween night.
For all the questions we have about Georgia, we will have
all the answers we need by November 1st. Georgia’s November schedule
seems reasonable when compared with the gauntlet that is October. Georgia hosts
Kentucky on November 7th, travels to Auburn on November 14th
for the first time since the “Prayer and Jordan-Hare” in 2013, comes home to
play Georgia Southern on November 21st, and then concludes the
regular season in Atlanta against Tech on November 28th.
Overall, the schedule is difficult, but as SEC schedules go,
it is reasonable.
Georgia returns a solid team from a year ago, featuring
three returning linebackers that should give Georgia one of the best past
rushes in the nation. Leonard Floyd, Jordan Jenkins, and Lorenzo Carter will
make it fun watching the defense terrorize opposing quarterbacks this season.
Offensively, Nick Chubb is getting a ton of hype as a
potential Heisman candidate, but Georgia also returns Malcolm Mitchell, who is
healthy for the first time in almost two years, Justin Scott-Wesley, Sony
Michel, Jeb Blazevich, and Isaiah McKenzie on offense which gives Georgia more
than enough weapons to have a potent offense.
The biggest question for Georgia in 2015 is a familiar one:
can the quarterback be good enough to lead this team to an SEC title. Last
year, Hutson Mason was not good enough at quarterback. I’m not saying the
entire season was his fault, but at the end of the day, he was not enough of a legitimate
threat to win week after week. This season is even more unknown that last year.
Three players, Brice Ramsey, Faton Bauta, and Virginia transfer Greyson Lambert
will vie for the opportunity to win the starting job when camp opens next week,
but even if one player separates himself before the start of the season, it
doesn’t mean that we won’t see more than one quarterback take meaningful snaps
for Georgia this season.
The irony of the past two years is that Georgia fans
constantly complained about Aaron Murray during his four-year career at
Georgia, but the reality is this: Georgia would be ranked #2 in the preseason
polls (right behind defending champion Ohio State) this year if Murray was
under center for Georgia rather than the quarterback position being a question
mark. Please, please, please Georgia fans, when we have another great
quarterback (in 2016), be thankful for what you have, and remember 2014 and
2015 when all you needed was a quarterback to be a legitimate contender.
So what then should we expect for 2015?
You should expect a great running game, a great defense, and
an exciting season that will ultimately fall short of a significant
achievement. Here is the bar for 2015: 10-2, with those two losses coming
against Alabama, Auburn, or Tennessee. Georgia cannot lose to South Carolina,
Florida, or Tech and call this season a success. 10-2 will most likely get Georgia
back in the SEC title game, but unless I am very wrong about the quarterback
situation, Georgia won’t be good enough to win the SEC, let alone be considered
for the playoff.
So now that you have the proper level of expectations for
the 2015, we can spend the next month breaking down the team, position by
position, analyzing the rest of the best from across the nation, and predicting
the practically unpredictable 2015 college football season. It should be a fun
ride.
Go Dawgs!
