A Cocktail PARTY for the Dawgs

As we approach another Cocktail Party this afternoon in Jacksonville, the two teams on the field are heading in very different directions.

Georgia is ranked 11^th by the college football playoff committee, but their path to the Final Four maybe the easiest in the conference. The SEC East is all but locked up, and a win in Atlanta would almost assure the Dawgs of a spot in the first playoff in college football history.

Meanwhile, Florida is heading into a time of transition. Will Muschamp is going to be fired at the end of the season, and everyone knows it. The Gators have been terrible the past two seasons. Florida has become an also-ran in the SEC, a conference that it dominated for the better part of two decades. It is hard to believe that the Gators have fallen as far as they have, but the reality of their situation has been put on full display this season. An embarrassing loss to Alabama. A triple overtime win over Kentucky. An ugly loss at home to Missouri. A game given away to rival LSU. At 3-3 on the season, the Gators will have to beat either Georgia, Florida State, or South Carolina to get to a bowl game. 

This is not Florida football.

I am a son of the 1990’s and 2000’s so you will have to forgive me if I’m not as confident as I should be that Georgia is going to win today in Jacksonville. I grew up on being disappointed in Jacksonville. As I said earlier this week, there have been too many times when Georgia had a better team than Florida, but managed to lose the game. Missed field goals, dropped passes, turnovers, and questionable coaching decisions have contributed to my lack of confidence.

On paper, this should not be a game. Georgia is head and shoulders better than Florida. Even without Todd Gurley, Georgia is one of the best rushing teams in the nation. Georgia’s offense is at the top of the SEC in scoring, and Hutson Mason looked like a legitimate threat at quarterback against Arkansas, something that would take this offense from very good to great.

Florida’s defense is the strength of their team, but even that is relative. In their five SEC games this season, Florida has allowed an average of 30.6 points per game. Nationally, the Gators are ranked 59^th in points allowed. While Florida has a strong secondary, they lack a dominant pass rusher, and even the best corners can’t stay with receivers forever.

Defensively, it feels like Georgia has turned a corner. A road shut out against Missouri and a dominant first half against Arkansas has senior Ramik Wilson saying this week that the defense as a whole is having fun and they can still get better.

By far, the worst unit on the field this afternoon will be the Florida offense. If you exclude a 65-0 win over Eastern Michigan in the opening game of the season, Florida is just averaging 21.4 points per game. That average would rank them 107^th out of 124 teams in college football. Almost worse than the lack of scoring is the fact that Florida has turned the ball over 16 times this season in only 6 games. Florida is hoping that starting freshman quarterback Treon Harris will be the jumpstart this offense needs. But then again, you are starting a freshman in your biggest rivalry game of the season.

All of the little details make me nervous. Maybe a new quarterback that can run a little bit will get the Florida offense going. The bye week for Florida has given them time to make some adjustments. Florida isn’t going anywhere this season, but they could absolutely ruin Georgia’s season today. 

Maybe Florida comes out today, with their coach under fire, and plays out of their minds in an attempt to help him keep his job.

All of those thoughts give me pause, but this thought is the one that I haven’t been able to shake all week:

Is it really possible for Georgia to lose their best player for 1/3 of the season, win all of the games that player misses, get the player back for the biggest game of the season (Auburn on November 15^th), and win the SEC title? It just doesn’t seem like something that would happen. At some point, you would think it would catch up to Georgia.

Losing this game today would be the worst loss for Georgia in almost three decades, and winning this game for Florida isn’t going to change the fact that there is major change coming to their program.

Following my head rather than my nerves, I know Georgia is going to win today. The Dawgs are just too good, and Florida simply isn’t good enough. The question is how do the Dawgs win? Is it like last season? 23-20 in a game that was never that close or will be like Georgia’s last two games, a dominant performance where the game was put away by half time.

I think it is going to be the latter. I think Georgia is going to put a beating on Florida, and I don’t think they are going to let up in the second half. Style points matter with the new playoff committee, and Georgia will raise some eyebrows today.

Chubb is going to have a big day, Isaiah McKenzie is going to take one to the house, and Mason will continue to make progress, but the star of the day is going to be the defense. I think Georgia’s defense will score today, and I think they are going to be dominant against an offense that lacks big play ability or confidence.

Enjoy this one Georgia fans, because Florida won’t be down for long.

Dawgs 48    Florida 10