In an historic year of college football, the picture for the
inaugural college football playoff is becoming clearer. This week, we will get
our first look at the rankings from the playoff committee.
The committee has
waited until this late in the season to reveal it’s rankings so that they focus
on what has happened on the field rather than pre-season rankings.
So what should we expect when the rankings come out on
Tuesday night?
This is what my rankings would look like. The committee will
be ranking a Top 25, which makes no sense to me, because there are going to be
three loss teams in the Top 25 that have no chance of
making the final four.
I’m only doing 15 because this is hard enough.
1.
Mississippi State
2.
Florida State
3.
Alabama
4.
Oregon
5.
Michigan State
6.
Ole Miss
7.
Auburn
8.
Notre Dame
9.
Georgia
10.
Kansas State
11.
TCU
12.
Baylor
13.
Ohio State
14.
Arizona
15.
Nebraska
There are a couple of things you need to be looking for in
the rankings. First, with only two undefeated teams from Power 5 conferences,
the ranking on the one-loss teams will be critical. On name recognition, I
would expect Alabama to be ranked as the top one-loss team, but you never know.
The second thing to look for is how do they treat all of the SEC teams? Does a
team like LSU that has two losses to two of the top 10 teams in the country get
ranked higher than some one-loss teams from another conference? This would give
us an indication of how much weight the SEC will carry as the season
progresses. Lastly, I think we need to pay attention to Notre Dame. The Irish
get special treatment in college football because they were a huge power 50
years ago, but more importantly, because their name means viewers. You would be
naïve to think that the committee won’t try to put the Irish in to make sure
that this first playoff puts up enormous ratings numbers.
Here is the reality of the rankings and the playoff picture:
it usually works itself out. More often than not, the BCS worked itself out,
and by the end of the season, I believe that the playoff picture will have only
5 or 6 teams with legitimate claims to one of the four spots.
Right now, I believe there are only seven teams that control
their own destiny. Now, this has nothing to do with what I think will happen,
this is just a list of teams that could win out and get in the playoff with no
help.
- Mississippi State: Obviously if you are the
number one team in the country, and you keep winning, you will be the number
one team at the end of the season. The road is still tough for the Bulldogs,
but they are in control of their own destiny.
-
Florida State: The Noles are the defending
champions, and in my mind, they have the clearest path to the playoff. The one
problem for Florida State is they can’t lose. Their schedule is not tough
enough to be able to lose to an unranked team this late in the season and still
make the playoff.
-
Alabama: Even though they could miss the SEC
title game because of a tie-breaker to Ole Miss, there is no way a one-loss
Tide team gets left out. They have looked impressive in their last couple of
games, and running the table would mean wins over LSU, Auburn, and top-ranked
Mississippi State.
-
Michigan State: The Spartans’ only loss was on
the road to Oregon. If they run the table in the Big 10 and beat Ohio State in
the Big 10 title game, it would be hard to see how they would get left out of
the playoff.
-
Ole Miss: Despite the loss on the road to LSU,
the Rebels are still in a very good position if they win out. They own the
tie-breaker with Alabama, and they still have games with one-loss Auburn and
number one Mississippi State on the schedule. Win out and the Rebels play in
the SEC title game. The loss to LSU just means there is no room for error for
the Rebels, because with a second loss, LSU would own the tie-breaker.
-
Oregon: Even though they lost to Arizona, the
Ducks are still in control of their own destiny to win the Pac 12. There are
major issues on the offensive line, so Oregon needs style points to make sure
they stay on top of the SEC teams. The Pac 12 has been a disappointment this
season, so there aren’t many chances for impressive wins left on the Ducks’
schedule.
-
Georgia: This is not a homer pick. If Georgia
wins the rest of their games, they will, without a doubt, be in the playoff,
and I think they would be ranked number 2 behind Florida State. Winning out
would mean a win versus Auburn and then beating a Top 5 team in the SEC title
game to be a one-loss SEC champion. Sure the SEC East is very weak, but Georgia
has been impressive and still has a chance to impress even more.
These teams are still in the mix, but they need help:
-
Auburn: The Tigers’ loss to Mississippi State
has them trailing in the SEC West standings. If the Bulldogs win out, Auburn
would get left out of the title game, and would not be a lock at 11-1 to get
into the playoff. Beating teams like Georgia, Ole Miss, and Alabama would make
it hard to leave the Tigers out, but I think there would be a big debate on
putting them in to be the number four team and getting a rematch with top
ranked Mississippi State.
-
TCU: No team in the country will play the “what
if?” game more than TCU. They had Baylor beat with 10 minutes left in the
fourth quarter, but managed to blow a 24 point lead to lose. The Big 12 suffers
because of two-loss Oklahoma and no title game to leave an impression on the committee.
-
Kansas State: A
home loss to Auburn is the only blemish on their record, but I just
don’t look at K-State the same way I look at other one-loss teams. They haven’t
been impressive in their wins, and there aren’t many chances to win a big game
left on their schedule. I think they are a good team, but even if they run the
table and win the Big 12, I don’t see how they would jump a one-loss SEC West
team.
-
Ohio State: They lost, big, at home, to Virginia
Tech. They also have their own history of losing big games to overcome. If they
win out, they will need losses ahead of them to make the committee take them,
because I honestly don’t think anyone wants to see the Buckeyes in the playoff.
-
Nebraska: Winning the Big 10 with one-loss and
beating Ohio State in the title game would be a great season for Nebraska, but
the weakness of the Big 10 is going to make it difficult for Nebraska. Their
non-conference schedule was terrible, and I’m not really impressed with them
when I try to watch them. Which is not often.
-
Notre Dame: At this point, the best win on their
résumé is a win over Stanford. That is just not good enough. Yes, they played
great in a loss to FSU, but they lost. When you play weak schedules you don’t
have the luxury of losing the one big game you play. Beating Arizona State and
a three-loss USC team wouldn’t change my opinion on Notre Dame.
This season has been amazing so far, and there is the
potential for it to get even crazier in November. I think the SEC West will
continue to cannibalize itself. Either Auburn or Ole Miss will get their second
loss next weekend, I think LSU is going to give Alabama everything it can
handle in Death Valley in two weeks, and I could see Mississippi State losing
to Alabama and Ole Miss. A Georgia victory over Auburn, along with everything I
just described would mean there could actually be FIVE teams in the SEC West
with two losses! How does that tie-breaker work?
Florida State is almost a guarantee, unless they go on the
road on a Thursday night to play one of those games that seem to trip up a top
team every year. Oh, Florida State travels to Louisville this Thursday…
Michigan State, Ohio State, and Nebraska could all pick up
another loss, and nothing would surprise me in the Big 12 or Pac 12 at this
point.
I said earlier that it usually works itself out, I think it
will, but the potential is there for more chaos than we have ever seen. Either
way, it should be a lot of fun!
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