Georgia/South Carolina Preview

It may only be the third week of the season, but it is not overstating to say that the Georgia/South Carolina game is one of the biggest games of the year in the SEC. The two teams have had dramatically different starts to their seasons, but everything could change if South Carolina pulls out a win this Saturday.

Traveling to Columbia hasn’t been an easy task for Georgia under Mark Richt. Even though Richt won his first four games in Columbia, each game was a challenge.

In 2002, it took David Pollack with a sack/fumble/touchdown to put Georgia over the top against South Carolina. The Dawgs were able to hold on with a 13-7 win, despite not scoring an offensive touchdown in the game.

In 2004, Georgia found themselves down 16-0 in the first half, before the offense woke up and came back to win 20-16. David Greene threw a touchdown in that game, which is significant because no Georgia quarterback has thrown a touchdown in Columbia since.

In 2006, Georgia had to play freshman Matt Stafford after a first quarter injury. The defense dominated the game, with the Dawgs winning 18-0.

In 2008, Georgia won 14-7 in a game I have no recollection of.

2010 was the first loss for Georgia under Richt in Columbia. Marcus Lattimore made his SEC debut by running all over Georgia. There were multiple times in the game where Lattimore would run the ball on third and long, and get the first down by about a yard. It was demoralizing. Carolina won 17-6 and it really wasn’t that close. Georgia was never in the game.

Speaking of never in the game, Georgia suffered through four miserable quarters against the Gamecocks two years ago in a prime-time game that was awful to watch on TV or in person. South Carolina punched Georgia in the mouth early in the game, and the Dawgs just laid down. The final score was 35-7, but it felt more like 70-0. Going into the game ranked 5^th in the nation, Georgia looked like they would never win another game.

Georgia won in Athens last year, saving their season after dropping their opener on the road to Clemson. This year, it is South Carolina who is playing for their season after the whopping they took at the hands of Texas A&M. Before the loss to A&M, South Carolina had won 18 straight games at home, so winning in Columbia hasn’t been easy for any team lately.

So what can we expect on Saturday?

The Georgia offense is the best unit on either team. Georgia showed against Clemson that they have the ability to run the ball effectively with multiple running backs. Todd Gurley will again be the best player on the field, but I don’t think we can expect Gurley to go for nearly 300 yards and four touchdowns like he did against Clemson.

I think the biggest key to the running game is going to be Georgia’s ability to be dynamic in the running game. Using Sony Michel and Isaiah McKenzie on the fly sweep from the wide receiver position will keep the Carolina defense on their toes. I think the more backs Georgia can put on the field at one time, the better. A two-back set with Michel and Gurley would mean that any fake to Gurley would get the entire defense moving one way, while Michel’s top level speed could be heading in the opposite direction. Just like he showed against Clemson, Michel only needs a small window to be able to turn the corner.

Another aspect of the running game that I think will be critical for Georgia is using more than one back in an offensive series. In the Clemson game, there were times where Keith Marshall or Sony Michel were in the game and a third and short situation presented itself. Two different drives stalled because the speed backs were left in the game when a power back would have been more effective. I really want to see Georgia put Gurley, Chubb, or Brendan Douglas in the game in those situations because they are going to be able to pound the defense rather than try to run around them.

Obviously, South Carolina is going to try and load up against the run and make Hutson Mason beat them. The problem for South Carolina is that they have been absolutely gashed in the passing game in their first two games of the seasons. A&M passed for 511 yards and East Carolina passed for 321 yards.

Georgia isn’t going to want to throw as much as either A&M or East Carolina did, but if Carolina can’t stop Mason from passing when he needs to, then there is no chance that Georgia will be stopped. I think it is unrealistic to think that Carolina can stop the Georgia running game entirely, so stopping Mason will be a necessity if the game is going to be close.

The Carolina defense was supposed to be solid, but it has looked un-athletic and under-talented in both of their first two games. They gave up 52 points to A&M and 23 points to East Carolina. I think Georgia will win the game if they can score 30 points, so it is going to be difficult for the Carolina defense to hold Georgia under 30 when they gave up 23 to East Carolina.

Offensively, South Carolina is going to want to run the ball to slow down the game, and keep the Georgia offense on the sideline.

Mike Davis is a much better running back than any back that Clemson played against the Dawgs two weeks ago. The problem for South Carolina is that there is a significant drop off in talent after Davis.

Dylan Thompson hasn’t looked great in his first two games this season. Many times, Thompson has missed open receivers by throwing high. It seems that Thompson has a hard time managing his energy level during the game and sometimes has a hard time being accurate, especially when he is trying to throw the deep ball. However, it only takes one throw to get him in a rhythm. If Thompson can get off to a good start, I think he will be able to take advantage of the young Georgia secondary.

Georgia can win this game on defense. If Georgia stops the run, Georgia will win. I don’t think Dylan Thompson can beat Georgia with his arm alone. Georgia was fantastic against the run against Clemson. Georgia held the Tigers to 88 yards rushing on 43 carries. That is an average of about 2 yards per carry. I don’t think Georgia can duplicate that performance, but if they could hold South Carolina under 125 yards rushing, they will have done a great job. I have already said that Dylan 

Thompson can be erratic, so if Georgia can hit him early and often I think they can take him out of the game completely. Georgia had 5 sacks against Clemson. They might not need that many against the Gamecocks to win.

There is an “X Factor” in this game: Williams-Brice Stadium. Seeing it with my own eyes two years ago, I can tell you that the crowd, and the way the players feed off of the crowd contributed greatly to the 28 point beat down that Georgia experienced. I really believe that the beginning of this game is going to be critical for both teams.

If Georgia can come out early, get a lead, and take the crowd out of the game, they might run away from South Carolina. However, if Carolina can keep the crowd in the game into the second half, the Gamecocks are more than capable of winning the game.

Las Vegas has Georgia favored by 5.5 points. That is almost a 9 point swing from this summer when Georgia was listed as a 3 point underdog.

The season is absolutely on the line for South Carolina. A loss would mean going 0-2 in the SEC with road games at Auburn and Florida still on the schedule.

Georgia will get into a softer part of their schedule after this game. The Dawgs won’t play another road game until October 11^th against Missouri. But the biggest incentive for Georgia in this game is the ability to eliminate South Carolina from the SEC East race.

Even when Georgia is the better team, playing in Columbia is never easy. If you think Georgia is going to just walk in and put a beat down on Carolina then you are crazy. South Carolina is going to play this game like it is their last. I think Carolina will play well in the first half and trail by less than a touchdown going into halftime, but ultimately, Georgia is just more talented. The defense will make great adjustments in the second half, and the running game will get stronger in the second half because the South Carolina defense is simply not that deep. I don’t think Georgia will pull away quite as much as they did against Clemson, but I don’t think this is going to be a nail-biter into the fourth quarter.

Georgia 34     South Carolina 20

Go Dawgs!

Week in Review: September 6

Biggest Story of the Week: The Sharp Decline of a Powerhouse

Everywhere you look today you will hear about the terrible day the Big 10 had yesterday. ESPN is practically running the story as breaking news. Here is some breaking news for the “World Wide Leader,” most of the country has known about the Big 10 being number 5 of the Power Five Conferences for a while. But we are glad you are paying attention.

For me, the biggest story of the day was watching Michigan play Notre Dame. Because of Notre Dame’s new deal with the ACC, this is the last time the two teams will play for the foreseeable future, and that was enough to peek my interest. What I saw was a bit shocking.

Going in, I didn’t think either one of these teams were that good, and when Everett Golsten had to burn two timeouts on the Irish’s opening drive because he couldn’t manage the play clock, I thought it would be a pretty good game between two average teams. Unfortunately for Michigan, they are far from average.

Notre Dame’s defense dominated the game, and Notre Dame’s offense was able to move the ball effectively, but looked like a high school team at times. Notre Dame doesn’t have elite athletes on offense and I think Golsten is a below average quarterback, but they were able to put up 31 points on Michigan. In the final game of the series, Notre Dame shut out Michigan for the first time ever.

While the decline of the Big 10 has been well documented, I think the decline of Michigan is far more troubling.

Like it or not, the Michigan football program is one of the top 3 programs of all time. They have won more games than any other team in college football history. Michigan has 11 consensus national titles. They have 23 undefeated seasons. They have won 42 conference titles. The winged helmets of the Maize and Blue are as iconic as any in college football. The Big House, which seats near 110,000 fans is one of the greatest venues in America. College football is a better product when it’s historical programs like Michigan are in contention.

The problem is that Michigan is not in contention. Since 2008, Michigan has lost 36 games (42-36 overall).

Obviously the worst of those numbers were accumulated during the utter failure that was the Rich Rodriquez era. Rodriguez was going to bring Michigan football into the 21^st century with a new up-tempo offense, but after two straight losing seasons and a 7-6 campaign in 2010, Rich Rod was gone and the Wolverines turned to a “Michigan Man,” in Brady Hoke.

Hoke endeared himself to the Michigan faithful in 2011 by returning the team to the national stage going 11-2 and beating Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl. Michigan was back!

Only they weren’t. Alabama embarrassed the Wolverines in the opening game of the 2012 season, and Michigan would limp their way to an 8-5 record and another bowl game defeat.

Last season, Michigan went 7-6.

Looking ahead this season, Michigan still has to play Penn State, Michigan State, and Ohio State. They aren’t winning any of those games. So that is 8-4 at best. If they slip up just once, they are flirting with another appearance in the Toilet Bowl, to be played on December 27^th in a half full stadium that no one has ever heard of.

Just saying that Michigan should fire Brady Hoke is an obvious statement. The more difficult issue is how can this storied school find their way back to national prominence in the current landscape of college football?

Before I answer that, let me tell you whose fault it is that Michigan has fallen so far off the map: Ohio State alum, and ESPN commentator Kirk Herbstreet.

In 2007, on the day of the SEC Championship game, Herbstreet reported on College Gameday that Michigan was going to hire Les Miles away from LSU to be their next head football coach. Miles, whose team was playing in Atlanta that day, was forced to address the issue before the Tigers took the field, and said he was not leaving LSU.

Miles is a “Michigan Man.” He coached under the legendary Bo Schembechler and I believe with all my heart that the Mad Hatter was heading to Ann Arbor after the season finished, but after being publicly called out, he stayed at LSU. How can you recruit top level talent if you were the guy who was looking for his next job while his team was en route to a national title?

Miles was out, and Rodriquez was the eventual choice for Michigan.

So how does Michigan get back? Hire the man they should have hired in the first place. At the end of the season, Michigan should offer Miles a $10 million per season contract to come home and save his alma mater.

Watching the game last night, the most amazing thing was how few good players Michigan had on the field. How is it, at a place like Michigan, you can’t recruit better players? Miles is a great recruiter and hiring him would not only invigorate a huge fan base, it would also set up the 

Michigan/Ohio State rivalry as one of the best in college football once again.

Biggest Win of the Week: Oregon pulls away from Michigan State

In the marquee match up of the day, the third ranked Ducks managed to pull away from Sparty in the second half in a win that will be even more impressive on paper than it was watching it live. Over the past two seasons, Oregon has fallen to the physicality of the Stanford. Beating a physical team like 

Michigan State in the manner they did, will give Oregon a lot of confidence going forward.

I still think it is going to be hard for Oregon to go undefeated in the Pac 12, but with the terrible day the Big 10 had, a one loss Pac 12 Champion would still be in the playoff. Oregon doesn’t play USC or Arizona State, so the Trojan’s victory over Stanford yesterday sets up the Ducks as the front runner in the Pac 12 North.

Most people on the east coast probably had not seen too much of Marcus Mariota. Mariota was very good yesterday, and at times, he was brilliant, using his mobility to buy more time to make plays down the field, rather than scrambling and taking big hits.

Oregon has speed all over the field on both sides of the ball, so if they can keep Mariota healthy, the Ducks should be in the hunt for the playoff, and a win over a top 10 non conference opponent is just going to make their case that much stronger.

Biggest Loss of the Week: Ohio State falls at home to un-ranked Virginia Tech

Once Braxton Miller was lost for the season, it was hard to see Ohio State being a factor for the national title race, but losing at home to a Virginia Tech team that is very young was embarrassing.

While the quarterback play wasn’t good at all, the real issue was the inability of the Ohio State offensive line to slow down the Virginia Tech defense. Seeing a middle of the road ACC team physically dominate Ohio State in Columbia was pretty surprising.

Going forward, Ohio State is still the team to beat in their division, but only because Penn State is still ineligible for the conference title and Michigan is awful. I can’t see the Buckeyes beating either Michigan State or Wisconsin in the title game, and even if they make it to one of the committee selected bowl games, they would probably be embarrassed.

Urban Meyer was supposed to establish Ohio State as the preeminent program in the Big 10, but now in his third season, Meyer doesn’t seem to have the type of talent that can compete with the big boys in college football. Even if Meyer wins his first Big 10 title this year, the loss last night probably eliminated Ohio State from the playoff, so the best the Buckeyes can hope for is winning the weakest major conference in college football.

Ohio State fans should be careful. If they lose another game or two this season, Meyer might decide that he needs to spend more time with his family again.

Top 3 in the Heisman Race:

1.      Kenny Hill

2.      Marcus Mariota

3.      Todd Gurley

College Football Playoff if the Season Ended Today:

1.      Texas A&M v. 4. Alabama

2.      Oregon v. 3. FSU

Three Things to Watch for Next Week:

1.     South Carolina hosts Georgia with their season on the line. Just like I feared, the Gamecocks looked mediocre against East Carolina last night, which means the entire world will be expecting Georgia to dominate them next Saturday. Georgia ran wild on Clemson, but they are going to need Hutson Mason to play a bigger role in the offense if they expect to win in Columbia for the first time since 2008.

2.      Big Game Bob hosts an SEC school. Oklahoma will face Tennessee in a very interesting game. Tennessee is still probably a year or two away from being able to compete for an SEC title, but they have a lot of talent and they could be a threat to Oklahoma if the Sooners aren’t on their game. Stoops always has a lot to say about the SEC, so I would imagine that he is going to want to make a statement against the Vols.

3.      USC and UCLA on the road. The Trojans head all the way to Chestnut Hill to face Boston College. BC isn’t that good, but it will be interesting how the cross country flight effects USC after a physical game against Stanford last Saturday. Meanwhile, USC’s cross-town rival, UCLA travel to the Lone Star State to take on Texas. The Longhorns got demolished by BYU last Saturday, so Charlie Strong’s team is going to need a big performance if they are going to get back on the right track before their conference schedule begins. The Bruins have not been too impressive in early season wins against Virginia and Memphis, so putting a whopping on Texas would affirm some of the preseason hype they received. 

A word of caution on a bye week

It almost seems like a tease. Georgia gives the best performance we have seen from them since the “Blackout” game against Auburn in 2007, and we have to wait two weeks before they play again.

I would like to take advantage of the bye week to issue a public service announcement to all Georgia fans.

Please, be cautious about how high your expectations get for this team.

Everywhere I looked this week I saw pundits having Georgia ranked number one for the college football playoff. Todd Gurley was being touted as the front runner for the Heisman. As optimistic as I can be as a Georgia fan, even I recognize that it is a very long season, and there are still major obstacles in the way.

Next Saturday, Georgia heads to Columbia where they haven’t won since 2008. As high as Georgia has been riding since their opening victory over Clemson, South Carolina has been equally low since their shocking loss against A&M.

While Georgia has been projected to play for titles, South Carolina has been questioned about their offensive line that was supposed to be great, their defensive line that was supposed to be good, and their running game that was non-existent against the Aggies.

Carolina has a game today against East Carolina, and my guess is they will have a hard time getting ready to play the Pirates. Another underwhelming performance today, and Carolina will be written off for dead against Georgia.

Make no mistake, I don’t care if Carolina loses to East Carolina today, next week’s game will be an absolute war.

Georgia is South Carolina’s biggest rival outside of Clemson, and if they want this season to matter at all, they have to win next Saturday.

Does this situation sound familiar? It should. Georgia was in the exact same situation one year ago when they managed to beat Carolina 41-30 in Athens to avoid going 0-2 to start the season.

You want more reasons to be concerned? Probably not, but I’m going to give them to you anyway.

History would tell us that when we look back at this season, we will view the Clemson game as the exception not the rule. Throughout Mark Richt’s tenure Georgia has produced great games like they did last Saturday, but they have been unable to sustain that level of excellence for the rest of the season.

In 2002, Georgia defeated 5 ranked teams on route to going 13-1 and finishing number three nationally. However, they let down against a Florida team that went 8-5 on the season to miss out on a chance for a national title.

In 2003, Georgia went on the road to beat number 13 Tennessee 41-14. It wasn’t really that close. Then they turned around and lost to number 23 Florida, 16-13.

2004, Georgia beats the daylights out of defending national champion LSU, 45-16. The very next week, Tennessee comes to Athens and beats Georgia 19-14.

In 2007, Georgia again defeated 5 ranked teams in that season, but lost at home to South Carolina, who didn’t even make a bowl game at 6-6, which cost Georgia a spot in the SEC title game and most likely the national title game.

Want some recent history?

Last season, Georgia played Clemson close in a loss, defeated South Carolina and LSU but went on the road and lost to lowly Vanderbilt in a game where the Commodores scored 31 points.

Georgia’s performance against Clemson was a great start, but it is vital for the players, coaches, and fans of the Dawgs to understand that it was just the start. For this season to end  the way we all hope it does, Georgia is going to have to repeat the performance from last week many more times.

Just think about this.

Since 2001, when Mark Richt took over as head coach at Georgia, the Dawgs have never defeated more than 5 ranked teams in one season. If the teams that are ranked now are still ranked when they play Georgia, then Georgia will play 4 ranked teams during the regular season, a ranked team in the SEC title game, and then two more ranked teams if they are going to go on to win the national title. 

That would be seven wins versus ranked teams.

Could it happen? Sure, but Georgia could also go to Columbia next week, lay an egg, and have us all thinking that this is going to be a terrible season.

The college football season is a marathon, not a sprint. Georgia got out of the blocks well, but there are many miles to go before we reach the finish line.