It may only be the third week of the season, but it is not
overstating to say that the Georgia/South Carolina game is one of the biggest
games of the year in the SEC. The two teams have had dramatically different
starts to their seasons, but everything could change if South Carolina pulls
out a win this Saturday.
Traveling to Columbia hasn’t been an easy task for Georgia
under Mark Richt. Even though Richt won his first four games in Columbia, each
game was a challenge.
In 2002, it took David Pollack with a sack/fumble/touchdown
to put Georgia over the top against South Carolina. The Dawgs were able to hold
on with a 13-7 win, despite not scoring an offensive touchdown in the game.
In 2004, Georgia found themselves down 16-0 in the first
half, before the offense woke up and came back to win 20-16. David Greene threw
a touchdown in that game, which is significant because no Georgia quarterback
has thrown a touchdown in Columbia since.
In 2006, Georgia had to play freshman Matt Stafford after a
first quarter injury. The defense dominated the game, with the Dawgs winning
18-0.
In 2008, Georgia won 14-7 in a game I have no recollection
of.
2010 was the first loss for Georgia under Richt in Columbia.
Marcus Lattimore made his SEC debut by running all over Georgia. There were
multiple times in the game where Lattimore would run the ball on third and
long, and get the first down by about a yard. It was demoralizing. Carolina won
17-6 and it really wasn’t that close. Georgia was never in the game.
Speaking of never in the game, Georgia suffered through four
miserable quarters against the Gamecocks two years ago in a prime-time game
that was awful to watch on TV or in person. South Carolina punched Georgia in
the mouth early in the game, and the Dawgs just laid down. The final score was
35-7, but it felt more like 70-0. Going into the game ranked 5th in
the nation, Georgia looked like they would never win another game.
Georgia won in Athens last year, saving their season after
dropping their opener on the road to Clemson. This year, it is South Carolina
who is playing for their season after the whopping they took at the hands of
Texas A&M. Before the loss to A&M, South Carolina had won 18 straight
games at home, so winning in Columbia hasn’t been easy for any team lately.
So what can we expect on Saturday?
The Georgia offense is the best unit on either team. Georgia
showed against Clemson that they have the ability to run the ball effectively
with multiple running backs. Todd Gurley will again be the best player on the
field, but I don’t think we can expect Gurley to go for nearly 300 yards and
four touchdowns like he did against Clemson.
I think the biggest key to the running game is going to be
Georgia’s ability to be dynamic in the running game. Using Sony Michel and
Isaiah McKenzie on the fly sweep from the wide receiver position will keep the
Carolina defense on their toes. I think the more backs Georgia can put on the
field at one time, the better. A two-back set with Michel and Gurley would mean
that any fake to Gurley would get the entire defense moving one way, while
Michel’s top level speed could be heading in the opposite direction. Just like
he showed against Clemson, Michel only needs a small window to be able to turn
the corner.
Another aspect of the running game that I think will be critical
for Georgia is using more than one back in an offensive series. In the Clemson
game, there were times where Keith Marshall or Sony Michel were in the game and
a third and short situation presented itself. Two different drives stalled
because the speed backs were left in the game when a power back would have been
more effective. I really want to see Georgia put Gurley, Chubb, or Brendan
Douglas in the game in those situations because they are going to be able to
pound the defense rather than try to run around them.
Obviously, South Carolina is going to try and load up
against the run and make Hutson Mason beat them. The problem for South Carolina
is that they have been absolutely gashed in the passing game in their first two
games of the seasons. A&M passed for 511 yards and East Carolina passed for
321 yards.
Georgia isn’t going to want to throw as much as either
A&M or East Carolina did, but if Carolina can’t stop Mason from passing
when he needs to, then there is no chance that Georgia will be stopped. I think
it is unrealistic to think that Carolina can stop the Georgia running game
entirely, so stopping Mason will be a necessity if the game is going to be
close.
The Carolina defense was supposed to be solid, but it has
looked un-athletic and under-talented in both of their first two games. They
gave up 52 points to A&M and 23 points to East Carolina. I think Georgia
will win the game if they can score 30 points, so it is going to be difficult
for the Carolina defense to hold Georgia under 30 when they gave up 23 to East
Carolina.
Offensively, South Carolina is going to want to run the ball
to slow down the game, and keep the Georgia offense on the sideline.
Mike Davis is a much better running back than any back that
Clemson played against the Dawgs two weeks ago. The problem for South Carolina
is that there is a significant drop off in talent after Davis.
Dylan Thompson hasn’t looked great in his first two games
this season. Many times, Thompson has missed open receivers by throwing high.
It seems that Thompson has a hard time managing his energy level during the
game and sometimes has a hard time being accurate, especially when he is trying
to throw the deep ball. However, it only takes one throw to get him in a rhythm.
If Thompson can get off to a good start, I think he will be able to take
advantage of the young Georgia secondary.
Georgia can win this game on defense. If Georgia stops the
run, Georgia will win. I don’t think Dylan Thompson can beat Georgia with his
arm alone. Georgia was fantastic against the run against Clemson. Georgia held
the Tigers to 88 yards rushing on 43 carries. That is an average of about 2
yards per carry. I don’t think Georgia can duplicate that performance, but if
they could hold South Carolina under 125 yards rushing, they will have done a
great job. I have already said that Dylan
Thompson can be erratic, so if
Georgia can hit him early and often I think they can take him out of the game
completely. Georgia had 5 sacks against Clemson. They might not need that many
against the Gamecocks to win.
There is an “X Factor” in this game: Williams-Brice Stadium.
Seeing it with my own eyes two years ago, I can tell you that the crowd, and
the way the players feed off of the crowd contributed greatly to the 28 point beat
down that Georgia experienced. I really believe that the beginning of this game
is going to be critical for both teams.
If Georgia can come out early, get a lead, and take the
crowd out of the game, they might run away from South Carolina. However, if
Carolina can keep the crowd in the game into the second half, the Gamecocks are
more than capable of winning the game.
Las Vegas has Georgia favored by 5.5 points. That is almost
a 9 point swing from this summer when Georgia was listed as a 3 point underdog.
The season is absolutely on the line for South Carolina. A
loss would mean going 0-2 in the SEC with road games at Auburn and Florida
still on the schedule.
Georgia will get into a softer part of their schedule after
this game. The Dawgs won’t play another road game until October 11th
against Missouri. But the biggest incentive for Georgia in this game is the
ability to eliminate South Carolina from the SEC East race.
Even when Georgia is the better team, playing in Columbia is
never easy. If you think Georgia is going to just walk in and put a beat down
on Carolina then you are crazy. South Carolina is going to play this game like it
is their last. I think Carolina will play well in the first half and trail by
less than a touchdown going into halftime, but ultimately, Georgia is just more
talented. The defense will make great adjustments in the second half, and the
running game will get stronger in the second half because the South Carolina
defense is simply not that deep. I don’t think Georgia will pull away quite as
much as they did against Clemson, but I don’t think this is going to be a
nail-biter into the fourth quarter.
Georgia 34 South Carolina 20
Go Dawgs!
No comments:
Post a Comment