Setting the Expectations for the 2015 Season

As we approach another college football season, I feel compelled once again to do the small public service of reminding college football fans that the number one key to enjoying the coming season is to have the proper perspective and expectations for your team.

Here in Athens, there is an unusual hesitation that seems to be hanging over the 2015 season. Going back to 2012, Georgia has been expected to finish the season at the top of the SEC East and in contention for the National Championship. A few weeks ago, the sports writers that gathered in Birmingham, Alabama for SEC Media Days voted Georgia as the favorite to win the Eastern Division again this season, but it has been nearly 3 years since Georgia played in the SEC title game, and there is no way to look at the past two seasons as anything but disappointments.

There are so many reasons for Georgia fans to expect this year to be a special season, but in many ways, those expectations seem to have become more habit than anything else.

The reality of the 2015 season is that we lost the best running back in the country in Todd Gurley, we have a first year offensive coordinator coaching who will be trying to break in a new quarterback for the second consecutive season, the defense made huge strides last year, but there were plenty of holes throughout the year, the kicking game and special teams improved over the disaster that was the 2013 season, but in the biggest moment of the 2014 season, on the road at a wounded South Carolina, two missed field goals doomed the entire 2014 campaign.

Those who fail to study history are doomed to repeat it, and for Georgia, that means facing the uncomfortable facts head on. For two seasons running, Georgia has at least one inexplicable loss each year. In 2013, Georgia lost at home to Missouri in a game that the Dawgs didn’t seem prepared for, and then followed that performance up with an inexcusable loss on the road at Vanderbilt.

Last season, Georgia was unable to beat a beatable South Carolina in Columbia, but the real disasters were in Jacksonville, where Georgia was unbelievably bad and the home finale with Tech, when the Dawgs managed to rip defeat from the jaws of victory with the squib kick heard around the peach state.

Early in the Richt Era, Georgia had a reputation for going on the road and winning big games. Georgia earned that reputation by winning in Knoxville in 2001, 2003, and 2005, by shutting out Clemson on the road to open the 2003 season, by coming back from a 16 point deficit to win at South Carolina in 2004, then shutting out the Gamecocks in Columbia two years later, Georgia won in Tuscaloosa for the first time ever in 2002, then “walked off” against the Tide in overtime in 2007, Georgia has never lost to Tech in Atlanta under Mark Richt. A reputation isn’t built or dismantled in one game or one season, but over the past two years, Georgia has earned the reputation of a team that is going to have a bad loss at some point of the season. It will be imperative that Mark Richt changes that reputation in 2015.

When looking ahead to the new season, you have to start with the schedule. Georgia’s schedule sets up nicely for the month of September as the Dawgs open at home against Louisiana Monroe before opening up SEC play on the road against Vanderbilt. Both of those games should be easy wins for Georgia. The Dawgs have those two games to work out some kinks before coming home to play South Carolina on September 19^th. Georgia is better than South Carolina and they will be playing at home, so Georgia should be expected to win that game. The Dawgs finish out the month of September by hosting Southern University on September 29^th.

The 2015 season will be decided in October. Georgia hosts Alabama on October 3^rd for the first time since the infamous “Blackout” game in 2008 when the Tide destroyed the Dawgs. The next week, Georgia heads to Rocky Top to take on the trendy pick to win the SEC East, Tennessee. The last time Georgia played in Knoxville, in 2013, it took an overtime miracle for Georgia to leave with a victory. Tennessee will have this game circled as a program-shifting opportunity to put themselves back in the conversation for the SEC title. The following week, Georgia returns home to host the two-time defending SEC East Champion, Missouri Tigers. Since Missouri came into the SEC in 2012, the home team hasn’t won a game in this series. Last year, Georgia humiliated the Tigers, but Missouri managed to get into the SEC title game because they ran the table in the SEC, while Georgia had two, ugly losses to Florida and South Carolina. October ends, literally, with Georgia v. Florida in Jacksonville on Halloween night.

For all the questions we have about Georgia, we will have all the answers we need by November 1^st. Georgia’s November schedule seems reasonable when compared with the gauntlet that is October. Georgia hosts Kentucky on November 7^th, travels to Auburn on November 14^th for the first time since the “Prayer and Jordan-Hare” in 2013, comes home to play Georgia Southern on November 21^st, and then concludes the regular season in Atlanta against Tech on November 28^th.

Overall, the schedule is difficult, but as SEC schedules go, it is reasonable.

Georgia returns a solid team from a year ago, featuring three returning linebackers that should give Georgia one of the best past rushes in the nation. Leonard Floyd, Jordan Jenkins, and Lorenzo Carter will make it fun watching the defense terrorize opposing quarterbacks this season.

Offensively, Nick Chubb is getting a ton of hype as a potential Heisman candidate, but Georgia also returns Malcolm Mitchell, who is healthy for the first time in almost two years, Justin Scott-Wesley, Sony Michel, Jeb Blazevich, and Isaiah McKenzie on offense which gives Georgia more than enough weapons to have a potent offense.

The biggest question for Georgia in 2015 is a familiar one: can the quarterback be good enough to lead this team to an SEC title. Last year, Hutson Mason was not good enough at quarterback. I’m not saying the entire season was his fault, but at the end of the day, he was not enough of a legitimate threat to win week after week. This season is even more unknown that last year. Three players, Brice Ramsey, Faton Bauta, and Virginia transfer Greyson Lambert will vie for the opportunity to win the starting job when camp opens next week, but even if one player separates himself before the start of the season, it doesn’t mean that we won’t see more than one quarterback take meaningful snaps for Georgia this season.

The irony of the past two years is that Georgia fans constantly complained about Aaron Murray during his four-year career at Georgia, but the reality is this: Georgia would be ranked #2 in the preseason polls (right behind defending champion Ohio State) this year if Murray was under center for Georgia rather than the quarterback position being a question mark. Please, please, please Georgia fans, when we have another great quarterback (in 2016), be thankful for what you have, and remember 2014 and 2015 when all you needed was a quarterback to be a legitimate contender.

So what then should we expect for 2015?

You should expect a great running game, a great defense, and an exciting season that will ultimately fall short of a significant achievement. Here is the bar for 2015: 10-2, with those two losses coming against Alabama, Auburn, or Tennessee. Georgia cannot lose to South Carolina, Florida, or Tech and call this season a success. 10-2 will most likely get Georgia back in the SEC title game, but unless I am very wrong about the quarterback situation, Georgia won’t be good enough to win the SEC, let alone be considered for the playoff.

So now that you have the proper level of expectations for the 2015, we can spend the next month breaking down the team, position by position, analyzing the rest of the best from across the nation, and predicting the practically unpredictable 2015 college football season. It should be a fun ride.

Go Dawgs!